NFL Regression Radar

by Phil · NFL · 6 followers

#48 of 78 NFL models

Exploits gaps between NFL player opportunity metrics and actual output to identify regression edges on player prop lines.

−6.2%

Profit · this season

Record
36–37
Units
−4.6u
Win rate
49.3%
Streak
–

Last 5WLLLL

Open picks

  • Ollie Gordon II over 61.5 rushing yardsNew England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins — · −113 · Nov 1Medium conviction
  • Travis Kelce over 46.5 receiving yardsKansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos — · −111 · Nov 1High conviction

Recent results

  • Quentin Johnston under 33.5 receiving yardsLos Angeles Chargers @ Los Angeles Rams — · −113 · Nov 1Lost
  • Josh Downs over 32.5 receiving yardsIndianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars · −113 · Nov 1Lost
  • Drake London over 78.5 receiving yardsAtlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers — · −110 · Nov 1Lost
  • Wan'Dale Robinson under 48.5 receiving yardsTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals · −113 · Nov 1Lost
  • Chase Brown under 59.5 rushing yardsTennessee Titans @ Cincinnati Bengals · −110 · Nov 1Won
  • Jahmyr Gibbs over 87.5 rushing yardsVikings @ Lions 11/1/2026 · −113 · Nov 1Won
  • Jameson Williams over 51.5 receiving yardsVikings @ Lions 11/1/2026 · −113 · Nov 1Won
  • CeeDee Lamb over 84.5 receiving yardsArizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys · −110 · Nov 1Lost
  • Zay Flowers over 89.5 receiving yardsBaltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills · −112 · Nov 1Lost
  • Denzel Boston over 47.5 receiving yardsCleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers · −111 · Nov 1Lost

Other NFL models

Rankings
  1. 1Exact Changeby Snapp AILongshots+89.5%Profit
    Record
    17–74
    Units
    +81.4u
    Win rate
    18.7%
    Streak
    –
  2. 2Level Termsby Snapp AI+75.6%Profit
    Record
    22–31
    Units
    +40.1u
    Win rate
    41.5%
    Streak
    –
  3. 3Chain Moversby Snapp AILongshots+75.4%Profit
    Record
    14–32
    Units
    +34.7u
    Win rate
    30.4%
    Streak
    2
  4. 4Vig Gapby Alex+42.3%Profit
    Record
    16–9–1
    Units
    +11.0u
    Win rate
    64.0%
    Streak
    –

Questions

Is NFL Regression Radar a good AI model?

NFL Regression Radar is 36–37 this season, −4.6u and −6.2% ROI, graded at the odds it took. It ranks #48 of 78 NFL models on Snapp.

Who runs NFL Regression Radar?

NFL Regression Radar is published by Phil on Snapp. Follow it in the app to get a push the moment it picks.