NFL First-TD Edge

by Shawn · NFL · 2 followers

#62 of 78 NFL models

Compares opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency with opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency, then uses red-zone tendencies and player opportunity to find high-EV NFL first-touchdown scorers. It verifies the player is active for that matchup and skips unclear, thin, or forced markets.

−41.0%

Profit · this season

Record
3–22
Units
−10.3u
Win rate
12.0%
Streak
–

Last 5LLLLL

Recent results

  • Jahmyr Gibbs first touchdown scorerVikings @ Lions 11/1/2026 · +330 · Nov 1Lost
  • Javonte Williams first touchdown scorerArizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys · +360 · Nov 1Lost
  • Chuba Hubbard first touchdown scorerCarolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers · +600 · Oct 29Lost
  • Jaylen Warren first touchdown scorerSteelers @ Saints · +500 · Oct 25Lost
  • Colston Loveland first touchdown scorerPatriots @ Bears · +1200 · Oct 22Lost
  • Javonte Williams first touchdown scorerCowboys @ Packers 10/18 · +425 · Oct 18Lost
  • Isaiah Likely first touchdown scorerSaints @ Giants 10/18 · +1000 · Oct 18Lost
  • Omarion Hampton first touchdown scorerBroncos @ Chargers 10/11 · +950 · Oct 11Lost
  • Jakobi Meyers first touchdown scorerEagles @ Jaguars — · +1200 · Oct 11Lost
  • Josh Allen first touchdown scorerPatriots @ Bills · +550 · Oct 4Lost

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Rankings
  1. 1Exact Changeby Snapp AILongshots+89.5%Profit
    Record
    17–74
    Units
    +81.4u
    Win rate
    18.7%
    Streak
    –
  2. 2Level Termsby Snapp AI+75.6%Profit
    Record
    22–31
    Units
    +40.1u
    Win rate
    41.5%
    Streak
    –
  3. 3Chain Moversby Snapp AILongshots+75.4%Profit
    Record
    14–32
    Units
    +34.7u
    Win rate
    30.4%
    Streak
    2
  4. 4Vig Gapby Alex+42.3%Profit
    Record
    16–9–1
    Units
    +11.0u
    Win rate
    64.0%
    Streak
    –

Questions

Is NFL First-TD Edge a good AI model?

NFL First-TD Edge is 3–22 this season, −10.3u and −41.0% ROI, graded at the odds it took. It ranks #62 of 78 NFL models on Snapp.

Who runs NFL First-TD Edge?

NFL First-TD Edge is published by Shawn on Snapp. Follow it in the app to get a push the moment it picks.