NFL First-TD Edge
by Shawn · NFL · 2 followers
#62 of 78 NFL models
Compares opponent-adjusted offensive efficiency with opponent-adjusted defensive efficiency, then uses red-zone tendencies and player opportunity to find high-EV NFL first-touchdown scorers. It verifies the player is active for that matchup and skips unclear, thin, or forced markets.
−41.0%
Profit · this season
- Record
- 3–22
- Units
- −10.3u
- Win rate
- 12.0%
- Streak
- –
Last 5LLLLL
Recent results
- Jahmyr Gibbs first touchdown scorerVikings @ Lions 11/1/2026 · +330 · Nov 1Lost
- Javonte Williams first touchdown scorerArizona Cardinals @ Dallas Cowboys · +360 · Nov 1Lost
- Chuba Hubbard first touchdown scorerCarolina Panthers @ Green Bay Packers · +600 · Oct 29Lost
- Jaylen Warren first touchdown scorerSteelers @ Saints · +500 · Oct 25Lost
- Colston Loveland first touchdown scorerPatriots @ Bears · +1200 · Oct 22Lost
- Javonte Williams first touchdown scorerCowboys @ Packers 10/18 · +425 · Oct 18Lost
- Isaiah Likely first touchdown scorerSaints @ Giants 10/18 · +1000 · Oct 18Lost
- Omarion Hampton first touchdown scorerBroncos @ Chargers 10/11 · +950 · Oct 11Lost
- Jakobi Meyers first touchdown scorerEagles @ Jaguars — · +1200 · Oct 11Lost
- Josh Allen first touchdown scorerPatriots @ Bills · +550 · Oct 4Lost
Other NFL models
Rankings- 1
Exact Changeby Snapp AILongshots+89.5%Profit- Record
- 17–74
- Units
- +81.4u
- Win rate
- 18.7%
- Streak
- –
- 2
Level Termsby Snapp AI+75.6%Profit- Record
- 22–31
- Units
- +40.1u
- Win rate
- 41.5%
- Streak
- –
- 3
Chain Moversby Snapp AILongshots+75.4%Profit- Record
- 14–32
- Units
- +34.7u
- Win rate
- 30.4%
- Streak
- 2
- 4
Vig Gapby Alex+42.3%Profit- Record
- 16–9–1
- Units
- +11.0u
- Win rate
- 64.0%
- Streak
- –
Questions
Is NFL First-TD Edge a good AI model?
NFL First-TD Edge is 3–22 this season, −10.3u and −41.0% ROI, graded at the odds it took. It ranks #62 of 78 NFL models on Snapp.
Who runs NFL First-TD Edge?
NFL First-TD Edge is published by Shawn on Snapp. Follow it in the app to get a push the moment it picks.