Which AP Top 25 teams are overrated?
KenPom says Tennessee, USC and Michigan are ranked too high and Iowa State, Kansas and Vanderbilt too low. Roster data backs Iowa State's case most.
The AP poll likes Tennessee, USC and Michigan far more than KenPom does
All 25 AP teams plus KenPom top-25 teams the AP left out
| Team | AP | KenPom | Gap | Minutes back | 2025-26 luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Florida | 1 | 2 | +1 | 79% | −.042 |
 Duke | 2 | 1 | -1 | 44% | +.040 |
 Illinois | 3 | 4 | +1 | 58% | −.049 |
 UConn | 4 | 11 | +7 | 47% | +.060 |
 Arizona | 5 | 7 | +2 | 27% | +.024 |
 Michigan State | 6 | 8 | +2 | 60% | −.006 |
 Texas | 7 | 10 | +3 | 13% | −.062 |
 Tennessee | 8 | 22 | +14 | 10% | −.031 |
 Virginia | 9 | 13 | +4 | 52% | +.047 |
 Houston | 10 | 3 | -7 | 23% | −.015 |
 Louisville | 11 | 16 | +5 | 11% | −.021 |
 Arkansas | 12 | 19 | +7 | 16% | +.056 |
 St. John's | 13 | 21 | +8 | 18% | +.052 |
 Miami | 14 | 20 | +6 | 42% | +.015 |
 Gonzaga | 15 | 14 | -1 | 14% | +.062 |
 Michigan | 16 | 28 | +12 | 35% | +.041 |
 Kansas | 17 | 5 | -12 | 39% | +.043 |
 Iowa State | 18 | 6 | -12 | 52% | −.017 |
 Texas Tech | 19 | 17 | -2 | 35% | +.014 |
 Alabama | 20 | 9 | -11 | 34% | +.011 |
 USC | 21 | 37 | +16 | 24% | +.068 |
 UCLA | 22 | 25 | +3 | 47% | +.024 |
 Kentucky | 23 | 24 | +1 | 22% | −.011 |
 Vanderbilt | 24 | 12 | -12 | 25% | +.006 |
 BYU | 25 | 34 | +9 | 27% | −.027 |
 Nebraska | NR | 15 | 40% | +.029 | |
 Ohio State | NR | 18 | 33% | −.046 | |
 Purdue | NR | 23 | 42% | +.005 |
Tennessee is No. 8 in the AP preseason poll and No. 22 in KenPom. KenPom is Ken Pomeroy's college basketball rating: it grades teams on points scored and allowed per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponents, and projects the new season from rosters and recent history. USC (21st vs 37th) and Michigan (16th vs 28th) show similar gaps. Kansas, Iowa State and Vanderbilt sit 12 spots lower in the poll than in KenPom.
KenPom's preseason record against the poll is a coin flip, so we checked rosters too. Lost minutes are a real warning sign; luck is a weak one.
A third of preseason AP top 25 teams miss KenPom's top 25
From 2022-23 to 2025-26, 33 of the 100 teams in the preseason AP top 25 finished outside KenPom's top 25.
- Even No. 1s miss: North Carolina was AP No. 1 in 2022-23 and finished 43rd in KenPom; Kansas was No. 1 in 2023-24 and 2024-25 and finished 27th and 24th.
Is KenPom's preseason rank better? Unproven. Ken Pomeroy tested 49 big disagreements from 2015 to 2021: KenPom won 23, the AP 25. Treat big gaps as flags, not verdicts.
This poll ranks rosters that have barely played together
The typical AP team now returns a third of last season's minutes. Through 2024-25 it was half.
The median AP team's returning minutes fell from half to a third
- Low continuity has hurt: 7 of 15 AP teams returning under 25% of their minutes missed KenPom's top 25, vs 26 of the other 85.
- Nine AP teams are under 25% this year, from Tennessee (10%) to USC (24%).
Luck padded last season's records, but it barely predicts a fall
Nine AP teams won at least 4 points more of their games last season than their play earned.
Last season's records ran ahead of the play
- Luck does not repeat: season-to-season correlation 0.02, vs 0.81 for efficiency margin.
- A weak flag: 8 of 22 AP teams coming off +.04 luck missed KenPom's top 25, vs 25 of 78 others.
USC, St. John's and Tennessee carry the most risk
Put the signs together: a low KenPom rank, few returning minutes and last season's luck. USC and St. John's have all three; Tennessee has two.
- Houston returns 23% but KenPom still ranks it 3rd, on a projected No. 1 defense.
- Gonzaga was lucky too (+.062), but KenPom agrees (14th vs 15th).
The overrated four
117.8Jalen Cox's offensive rating (Colgate)- Transfers lead, including Cox (17.9 points) and KJ Lewis (Georgetown). Jacob Cofie is the main returner.
21.3points a game, Juke Harris (Wake Forest)- Last season's Vols led the country in offensive rebounding but ranked 174th in effective field goal %. Rick Barnes went for scorers.
114.1Elliot Cadeau's offensive rating- Dusty May left for the Dallas Mavericks; Mike Boynton Jr. took over. KenPom sees the No. 1 defense falling to 24th.
124.4Keyshawn Hall's offensive rating (Auburn)- Keyshawn Hall (19.8 points at Auburn) and Babacar Sane play under temporary restraining orders; Sane's hearing is Nov. 9.
The underrated: Iowa State first, then Kansas and Vanderbilt
125.8Tamin Lipsey's offensive rating- T.J. Otzelberger's defense ranked 5th last season and forced turnovers on 22.6% of possessions (4th).
- Caveats: Lipsey plays on a preliminary injunction the NCAA has appealed, and Killyan Toure is out until about January (shoulder). Without both, about a quarter of the minutes are back.
121.1Trey Kaufman-Renn's offensive rating (Purdue)- Trey Kaufman-Renn joined Oct. 19, the day the poll came out. He, Melvin Council Jr. and Tre White all play on preliminary injunctions.
- Without Council and White, whom ESPN's roster omits, Kansas would show 6% of its minutes back.
19.1points a game, Tyler Tanner (returns)- Washington State transfer Ace Glass (16.4 points) joins Tanner.
- Alabama (AP 20, KenPom 9) brings back Aden Holloway (16.8 points, 43.5% from three) and Amari Allen.
- Nebraska is KenPom's 15th and unranked, with Pryce Sandfort (17.8 points) back.
Analysts agree on Michigan. Fewer see Tennessee or Iowa State.
- CBS Sports' Cameron Salerno (Oct. 19): "I'm expecting Michigan to take a step back this season." On Kansas: "If all three players are cleared, the Jayhawks are a top 10 team in the sport."
- FanSided's Joseph Jackson (Oct. 12) on KenPom: "Iowa State at sixth overall is the biggest surprise of the group."
What the data adds: USC and Tennessee have bigger gaps than consensus pick Michigan, and Kansas's case rests on court rulings.
The biggest gaps are worth about 3 points a game
Iowa State rates 5.1 points per 100 possessions above KenPom's No. 18 team. Tennessee rates 4.7 below its No. 8.
Iowa State and Kansas rate about 5 points per 100 possessions above their AP spot
- Per game: Iowa State +3.6, Kansas +3.3, Tennessee -3.3.
- The typical miss is bigger: a top-40 team's rating moves about 6 points per 100 possessions between seasons.
First tests, both at neutral sites: Iowa State plays Memphis at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, S.D., on Monday, Nov. 2, and UConn meets Michigan at TD Garden in Boston on Friday, Nov. 6 (KenPom's ratings make UConn about 3 points better).
Questions people ask
Who is overrated in the 2026-27 AP preseason poll?
By KenPom, USC (AP 21, KenPom 37), Tennessee (8 vs 22) and Michigan (16 vs 28). Michigan lost its coach and most of its title team.
Who is underrated in the AP preseason top 25?
By KenPom, Iowa State (AP 18, KenPom 6), Kansas (17 vs 5), Vanderbilt (24 vs 12) and Alabama (20 vs 9). Nebraska is KenPom's 15th and unranked.
How accurate is the AP preseason poll?
About two-thirds right: 33 of 100 preseason AP top 25 teams from 2022-23 to 2025-26 finished outside KenPom's top 25.
Is KenPom more accurate than the AP poll in the preseason?
Not clearly. In Ken Pomeroy's own test of 49 big preseason disagreements (2015 to 2021), KenPom won 23 and the AP 25.
How we did this: Ratings from KenPom (https://kenpom.com): 2026-27 preseason ratings as of Nov. 1, 2026, and final ratings for 2021 to 2026. AP poll from Snapp's college basketball warehouse (preseason poll released Oct. 19, 2026). Returning minutes: the share of a team's previous-season minutes played by players still on the roster. For 2026-27 that uses ESPN rosters as of Nov. 1, corrected to add Melvin Council Jr. and Tre White at Kansas; ESPN rosters can miss other late adds. Historical returning minutes count players who played for the same team in consecutive seasons. Luck is KenPom's: actual win % minus the win % expected from game-by-game efficiency. Per-game conversions assume about 71 possessions. KenPom top-40 changes use 2021 to 2026 final ratings. Player stats are 2025-26. KenPom vs AP preseason record: Ken Pomeroy, "kenpom vs. the world" (kenpom.com blog, Nov. 2022). Court rulings and injuries are from news reports through Nov. 1 and can change. Game tags list the home team ESPN designates; Iowa State-Memphis (Sioux Falls) and UConn-Michigan (Boston) are neutral-site games.