College basketball Advanced

350 teams, barely overlapping schedules. All opponent adjusted.

• AdjEMAdjusted efficiency marginPoints per 100 over an average team, neutral floor.
• AdjOEAdjusted offensive efficiencyPoints per 100, adjusted for the defences faced.
• AdjDEAdjusted defensive efficiencyPoints allowed per 100, adjusted. Lower is better.
• AdjTAdjusted tempoPossessions per 40. Best predictor of a total.
• PythagExpected win percentageThe win rate the efficiency numbers imply.
• LuckLuck ratingRecord against expected. How close games bounced.
• SeedTournament seedKept so past brackets can be replayed.

Who a team played, which is half of what a record means.

• SOSStrength of scheduleOpponent quality, on the ratings' own scale.
• NCSOSNon conference strength of scheduleThe games a program actually chose.
• Opp AdjOEOpponent adjusted offensive efficiencyHow good the offences it defended really were.
• Opp AdjDEOpponent adjusted defensive efficiencyHow good the defences it scored on really were.

The four things that decide a game, for and against.

• eFG%Effective field goal percentageA three at real value. The most important of the four.
• TO%Turnover percentagePossessions wasted without a shot going up.
• OR%Offensive rebound percentageOwn misses recovered: manufactured possessions.
• FTrFree throw rateTrips to the line relative to shots taken.
• Def eFG%Defensive effective field goal percentageHow accurately opponents shoot against it.
• Def TO%Defensive turnover percentageHow often this defence takes the ball away.
• Def OR%Defensive rebound percentage allowedMisses opponents get back.
• Def FTrDefensive free throw rateFouling, which quietly ruins good defences.

Per possession production, and the load each player carries.

• ORtgOffensive ratingPoints produced per 100 possessions used.
• TS%True shooting percentageTwos, threes and free throws in one number.
• %PossPercentage of possessions usedThe load his efficiency should be read against.
• %ShotsPercentage of shots takenHis share of attempts while on the floor.
• %MinPercentage of minutes playedBetter than raw minutes across differing tempos.
• ARateAssist rateShare of teammate baskets he assisted.
• TO%Turnover percentageThe cost side of a high usage player.

What decides whether he can stay on the floor.

• OR%Offensive rebound percentageShare of the offensive rebounds available to him.
• DR%Defensive rebound percentageShare of the defensive rebounds available.
• Blk%Block percentageThe clearest marker of a rim protector.
• Stl%Steal percentageShare of opponent possessions he ends.
• FC/40Fouls committed per 40 minutesWhether his minutes are ever safe.
• FD/40Fouls drawn per 40 minutesFree points, and opposing bigs in trouble.

Size, experience, and how much has played together.

• Eff hgtEffective heightFrontcourt height against Division I average.
• ExperienceAverage experienceYears of college ball weighted by minutes.
• Bench minBench minutesShare of minutes played by non starters.
• ContinuityRoster continuityMinutes played by returning players.

Every season held, plus a similarity model for projections.

• SimilaritySimilarity scoreHow closely a profile matches a historical one.
• Comp rankComparison rankWhere each match sits in the ordered list.
• Career ORtgCareer offensive ratingPer possession production across every season.
• Career AdjEMCareer adjusted efficiency marginSeparates a real dynasty from one good year.