Cricket Advanced

Team strength per format: the same eleven is not the same side.

• EloElo ratingThe gap between two ratings is a win probability.
• RR forRun rate scoredRead against the format's own mean.
• RR againstRun rate concededThe bowling half of the same rating.
• Format mean RRFormat baseline run rateWhat makes the two above comparable.
• Matches ratedRated match countBlank under five matches rather than published thin.

Our probability for a fixture, and a projected first innings total.

• P(win)Model win probabilityBlank for multi day: a draw is a third outcome we do not model.
• Proj. 1st innProjected first innings totalFor this ground, not a flat venue average.
• Venue priorVenue prior matchesA new ground leans on format baselines.
• Log lossModel log loss0.679 in the twenty over format. Lower is better.
• MAEMean absolute errorThe innings projection misses by 28.3 runs on average.

Home advantage, setting against chasing, and how fresh they are.

• Home won%Home win rateEmphatically not the same number in every league.
• Bat first W%Batting first win rateSome sides are far better at setting a target.
• Chase W%Chasing win rateA different skill, and often a different result.
• Rest daysDays since last matchShows in the bowling before the batting.
• H2HHead to head meetingsUseful where the same sides meet often.

How a ground behaves, and what the captains believe about it.

• 1st innVenue first innings averageThe base for any total or handicap read.
• Venue bat first%Venue bat first win rateThis is the pitch talking.
• Venue chase%Venue chasing win rateThe same effect from the other end.
• Toss win%Toss winner win rateAt this ground specifically.
• Elected bat%Elected to bat rateWhat the captains themselves think of the surface.

Where most of the real matchup edge in cricket lives.

• Pace overs%Share of overs bowled by paceFirst thing to check against a slow surface.
• Spin overs%Share of overs bowled by spinSome sides cannot supply it away from home.
• Pace wkts%Dismissals to paceWhere a batting order's weakness shows.
• Spin wkts%Dismissals to spinWhether a turning pitch helps or hurts them.
• EconEconomy by bowling typePace and spin separately.
• SR vs spinBatting strike rate against spinWhether a slow pitch is good news for them.