Golf Advanced

Every shot against what the field averages from the same spot.

• SG: TotalStrokes gained totalStrokes better than the field. The best single read.
• SG: OTTStrokes gained off the teeDriving, with distance and accuracy in one number.
• SG: APPStrokes gained approachHistorically what separates the very best.
• SG: ARGStrokes gained around the greenChips, pitches and bunker shots.
• SG: PUTTStrokes gained puttingThe noisiest category. Flatters a hot week.
• T2GTee to greenEverything but putting. The repeatable half.
• SG rankStrokes gained rankWhere he sits in the field per category.

Rolling form, and whether this course and grass suit him.

• Avg SG: TotalRolling strokes gained averageThe workhorse form number.
• Avg SG: T2GRolling tee to green averageForm measured on the repeatable part.
• R1 formFirst round scoring formHow he has been starting tournaments.
• Course SGCareer strokes gained at this courseHis own history here, in strokes not finishes.
• Grass fitPutting by grass familySome players simply read one grass better.
• Length bucketCourse length bandHow driving skill gets weighted this week.

Form, course history and field strength, on published weights.

• Cut%Made cut rateThe base rate everything else adjusts.
• Course cut%Made cut rate at this courseSometimes disagrees sharply with the base rate.
• Bucket cut%Made cut rate by course typeFills the gap when course history is thin.
• Form pctForm percentile in the fieldA cut is a contest against who showed up.
• Cut scoreBlended cut likelihoodHalf form, three tenths course, a fifth field.

One shrunken rating per player, with an honest sample gate.

• SG skillDecay weighted skill ratingWeighted recent, pulled towards the field mean.
• SG volRound to round volatilityA contender against a coin flip.
• n effEffective roundsWeighted count: old rounds count for less.
• RatedRating eligibilityUnder eight effective rounds we show nothing.

Ten thousand runs of the field. No outright win price: it failed validation.

• P(top 10)Top ten probabilityShare of simulated tournaments inside the top ten.
• P(make cut)Made cut probabilityThe simulation's own read, formed independently.
• E[finish]Expected finishAverage position, which ranks a field steadily.
• SimsSimulation runsTen thousand.
• Field coveredShare of field simulatedHow much of the field cleared the rating gate.

What he has done lately, and where the strokes came from.

• Win%Win rateAcross the last twenty four starts. Very noisy.
• Top 5%Top five rate
• Top 10%Top ten rateThe most quoted threshold for contention.
• Top 25%Top twenty five rateRoughly where the paydays begin.
• Par 3/4/5Scoring by par typeScore to par and birdie rate per hole type.
• R1-R4Scoring by roundFast starters against closers.
• Weekend ΔWeekend scoring changeOnce the cut is behind him.

How hard the course played: birdie fest, grind or balanced.

• Field avgField average to parThe one number that sets the week.
• Birdie%Birdie rateShare of holes played in one under.
• Bogey%Bogey rateShare of holes dropped.
• Double+%Double bogey or worse rateHow often the course wrecks a card.
• Difficulty spreadHole difficulty spreadWhether scoring hinges on a handful of holes.
• Cut lineCut line scoreProjected during play, final afterwards.
• Winning scoreWinning score to parWhat it took to win.