MMA Advanced

A finishing profile written the way the markets are.

• KO/TKO%Share of wins by knockoutThe base rate behind any inside the distance price.
• SUB%Share of wins by submissionThreatens finishes, rather than only controlling.
• DEC%Share of wins by decisionThe clearest tell for an over on rounds.
• KO/TKO loss%Share of losses by knockoutA durability read the win column hides.
• Finish%Fights ending earlyBouts not reaching the final bell, either direction.
• Avg. timeAverage fight lengthSeconds in the cage. The anchor for any rounds total.
• Over 2.5 rdsShare of fights past the halfway markerEvery half round line from 1.5 to 4.5.

Output per minute, so a war and a quick finish compare.

• SLpMSignificant strikes landed per minuteThe standard striking volume measure.
• SApMSignificant strikes absorbed per minuteThe better predictor of a late fade.
• Str. Acc.Striking accuracyTurns raw volume into real damage.
• Str. Def.Striking defenceSeparates elusive from merely tough.
• KDKnockdowns per fightThe shortest route to reading power.
• Ground%Ground strike shareWhere a fighter wants the fight to happen.

The wrestling layer, per fifteen minutes.

• TD/15Takedowns landed per fifteen minutesA full three round fight's worth of time.
• TD Acc.Takedown accuracyA real wrestler, or one who just shoots a lot.
• TD Def.Takedown defenceThe key number for a striker facing a grappler.
• Ctrl%Share of time controllingHow close rounds actually get scored.
• Controlled%Share of time being controlledBeing held is a different fight from holding.
• Sub. Avg.Submission attempts per fifteen minutesHow actively he hunts a finish on the mat.

How a fighter fights, and his record against each style.

• GrapplerGrappling led archetypeTakedowns and control over volume at range.
• StrikerStriking led archetypeWins at range, rarely chooses to go down.
• BalancedBalanced archetypeNo strong lean. The hardest style to prepare for.
• vs. GrapplerRecord against grapplersHow he has actually fared, not how his numbers look.
• vs. StrikerRecord against strikersExposes a record built on one kind of opponent.

The two fighters lined up column by column.

• Reach ΔReach differenceThe most direct physical mismatch there is.
• Height ΔHeight differenceChanges what a jab and a takedown entry look like.
• Age ΔAge differenceMatters more here than in almost any sport.
• Stance matchupStance pairingOrthodox against southpaw is a different fight.
• Layoff ΔLayoff differenceWhere ring rust turns into a number.
• Cross-edgeOutput against absorptionHis landing rate against the other's absorption.

How strong a fighter is, and how much to trust that.

• Glicko-2Glicko-2 strength ratingThe gap between two ratings is a win probability.
• RDRating deviationNear 350 for a debutant, 60 to 90 for a champion.
• VolRating volatilityHow far one surprise may move the rating.
• PeakPeak rating heldA faded champion, or someone never there.
• Opp. ratingAverage opponent ratingTells a padded unbeaten run from a real one.

Our probability for the bout, and separately for how it ends.

• P(win)Model win probabilityFrom ratings, style, pace and matchup. Not from a price.
• P(KO/TKO)Probability of a knockout finishWhat a method market is really asking.
• P(SUB)Probability of a submissionUsually the thinnest and most mispriced.
• P(DEC)Probability of a decisionPairs naturally with the over on rounds.
• Log lossModel log loss0.666 on unseen 2025 bouts. Lower is better.