Women's basketball Advanced

The box score per possession, computed in house.

• TS%True shooting percentageCounts threes and free throws at real value.
• eFG%Effective field goal percentageAdjusted for a three being worth more than a two.
• USG%Usage percentageShare of team possessions she finishes.
• AST%Assist percentageShare of teammate baskets she assisted.
• TOV%Turnover percentageHow often her possessions end in a giveaway.
• DREB%Defensive rebound percentageShare of the defensive rebounds available.
• Per 36Per thirty six minutesRescaled to a full workload.

Points per possession on both ends, and the tempo.

• ORtgOffensive ratingPoints scored per 100 possessions.
• DRtgDefensive ratingPoints allowed per 100. Lower is better.
• NetRtgNet ratingThe gap between the two.
• PacePossessions per 40 minutes.
• PossPossessionsThe denominator behind every rate.
• FTrFree throw rateFree throw attempts per field goal attempt.
• Rest daysDays of restMatters more in a league that flies commercial.

Where shots come from, and how they were created.

• RA FG%Restricted area field goal percentageRight under the rim, the most efficient shot.
• Paint FG%Paint field goal percentage outside the restricted areaShort shots in the lane, not at the rim.
• Mid FG%Midrange field goal percentageTwo point jumpers outside the paint.
• LC3 FG%Left corner three field goal percentageCorners are shorter, so they are held apart.
• RC3 FG%Right corner three field goal percentageMany shooters are measurably better on one side.
• ATB3 FG%Above the break three field goal percentageThrees away from the corners.
• C&S eFG%Catch and shoot effective field goal percentageOff a pass. The shot an offence can design.

What she did to the shots she faced, and to the team.

• dFG%Defended field goal percentageHow opponents shot with her closest, by shot type.
• dFG% diffDefended field goal differenceAgainst how those opponents normally shoot.
• BLK%Block percentageShare of opponent two point attempts she blocks.
• +/-Plus minusMargin while a player or group was on the court.
• On/Off ΔOn off differenceThe quickest test of whether the value is real.
• Lineup NetRtgLineup net ratingPer 100 for each five that shared the floor.

Last five minutes, score inside five.

• Clutch netClutch net ratingPer 100 margin in those closing minutes.
• Clutch ORtgClutch offensive ratingPoints per 100 late in a close game.
• Clutch DRtgClutch defensive ratingPoints allowed per 100 in the same window.
• Clutch TS%Clutch true shooting percentageEfficiency under that pressure.
• Clutch USG%Clutch usage percentageWho it runs through. Often not the top scorer.

Recent trend, who absorbs an absence, and when points arrive.

• PPG L5Points per game, last five
• TS% L10True shooting, last tenWith the gap against her season figure.
• MPG trendMinutes trendThe earliest sign a role is changing.
• Games since returnThe first games back rarely look like the rest.
• USG share ΔUsage share changeWho picks up an absent teammate's shots and minutes.
• Q1-Q4 PPGPoints per quarterWhat period markets resolve on.
• Over rateShare of games over the medianHow often games clear their own typical total.

Our own numbers. The win model was validated on a held out 2025 season.

• Net clash edgeShot zone advantage, strengths against weaknesses.
• Rim edgeRim clash edgeRim scoring against rim defence.
• 3PT edgeThree point clash edgeThe same behind the arc, where variance lives.
• Exp eFG% shiftExpected shooting shiftHow far shooting should move against this defence.
• EloElo ratingTeam strength, weighted by margin not just result.
• Model P(home)Model home win probabilityOurs, to compare against a market price.
• Model totalModel projected totalProjected points per side, from pace and efficiency.