Can the West pull an upset in the Worlds 2026 quarterfinals?
Karmine Corp and LYON have two of the best records in the field, but they're 1-8 this year against the six Korean and Chinese teams left. KC's one win was over T1, its Friday opponent.
Karmine Corp and LYON win a lot, but rarely against the teams left
2026 series records at major events, against everyone and against the other quarterfinalists
| Team | All 2026 series | Vs. other quarterfinalists | Worlds 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
 Bilibili Gaming | 53-14 | 12-5 | 3-2 |
 Gen.G | 40-10 | 10-7 | 3-0 |
 Dplus KIA | 35-17 | 10-7 | 3-0 |
 T1 | 35-20 | 8-10 | 3-1 |
 Top Esports | 30-25 | 7-7 | 3-1 |
 Invictus Gaming | 21-26 | 4-8 | 3-1 |
 LYON | 28-15 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
 Karmine Corp | 43-17 | 1-5 | 6-2 (incl. play-in) |
"On paper, Gen.G is overwhelming. Yet Worlds always produces upsets," Yoon Eun-Yong wrote in Sports Kyunghyang on Monday, in the paper's AI-translated English edition. If one comes, look West: LYON plays Gen.G on Wednesday and Karmine Corp plays T1 on Friday.
Both teams win a lot. KC has the 3rd-best series record in the field this year (43-17) and LYON the 5th (28-15). Against the six LCK and LPL teams still alive, though, they're a combined 1-8 in series and 4-19 in games. The one win was KC beating T1 in July.
Karmine Corp's run came against easier teams than T1
Karmine Corp has won 6 of 8 series at Worlds, climbing out of the play-in and back from a 1-2 start in the Swiss stage (Team aAa). The wins came against Cloud9, MVK twice, Anyone's Legend, CTBC Flying Oyster and Movistar KOI. LYON and Bilibili both beat it.
Karmine Corp keeps pace with T1 until the opponent gets good
- KC's one win this year over a Korean or Chinese team still alive came against T1: 2-1 in the Esports World Cup semifinal in July, a comeback Inven Global's Hongje Kim called "dramatic." Dplus KIA swept KC 3-0 in the final (GosuGamers).
- In their only best of five this year, at MSI in June, T1 won 3-0.
- Caliste has been KC's star, with 81 kills in 18 Worlds games. Faker has 19 kills and 7 deaths in T1's 5.
- T1 is only 8-10 against the other quarterfinalists this year, but it has won the last three Worlds.
- Earlygame's Florian Frick notes that whenever T1 or SK Telecom T1 have attended Worlds, "the organization has never finished outside the top four."
- Prediction markets have T1 about 83% (Kalshi, Nov. 1). We agree.
LYON's wins came at home in the LCS
LYON dominated the LCS this year, going 21-7 in series. Against the teams left at Worlds it's 1-4, and the win was over KC. Gen.G won the LCK and went 3-0 in the Swiss stage.
- Gen.G swept LYON 3-0 at First Stand in March and won again 2-1 in the Swiss stage on Oct. 25 (Sports Kyunghyang).
- Canyon has been in on 80% of Gen.G's kills at Worlds and died just 6 times in 5 games.
- Prediction markets have Gen.G about 91% (Kalshi and Polymarket US, Nov. 1). We agree.
Dplus KIA against Bilibili is the series to watch
Dplus KIA is the hottest team here. It won the Esports World Cup, has taken 8 of 9 international series and hasn't dropped a game at Worlds. Bilibili had the better year and almost never loses a best of five (18-3).
Dplus KIA is the hotter team; Bilibili wins the long series
- Their only meeting this year went to DK, 2-1 in a best of three at the Esports World Cup in July.
- Bilibili won First Stand and lost the MSI final 3-2. DK is 7-6 in best-of-fives.
- Bilibili's mid laner knight has 45 kills and 11 deaths in 8 Worlds games.
- Prediction markets have Bilibili about 59% (Kalshi and Polymarket US, Nov. 1). That's fair.
Top Esports and Invictus can't be split
Invictus Gaming won just 9 of 30 series over the first two LPL splits. Then it woke up, going 9-4 through the last split and the regional finals, better than Top Esports over the same stretch (10-7).
Invictus woke up in the summer
- They're 3-3 this year and split two best-of-fives in September: IG won 3-2, then TES won 3-1.
- Top Esports is missing its starting top laner. ZUIAN couldn't travel to the US because of visa issues, so veteran 369 is back (RG.org). TES is 4-2 in Worlds games with him.
- Prediction markets have IG about 55% (Kalshi and Polymarket US, Nov. 1).
- Every series is a best of five in Allen, Texas, at 2pm PT (LoL Esports). The semifinals are Nov. 7-8. Follow along on our League of Legends page, predictions page and Snapp AI Analysis.
Questions people ask
Can Karmine Corp beat T1 at Worlds 2026?
It's a long shot. KC and LYON are 1-8 this year against the six Korean and Chinese teams left. KC's one win was 2-1 over T1 in July, but T1 won their best of five at MSI 3-0.
Who is the favorite to win Worlds 2026?
Bilibili Gaming has the best series record against the other quarterfinalists this year (12-5). T1 has won the last three Worlds.
When are the Worlds 2026 quarterfinals?
Nov. 3-6, 2026, in Allen, Texas, all best of five at 2pm PT: Top Esports vs. Invictus Gaming (Nov. 3), Gen.G vs. LYON (Nov. 4), Dplus KIA vs. Bilibili Gaming (Nov. 5) and Karmine Corp vs. T1 (Nov. 6).
Who wins Dplus KIA vs Bilibili Gaming?
It's close. Dplus KIA is 8-1 in international series and won their only meeting in July. Bilibili is 18-3 in best-of-fives. We lean Bilibili, barely.
Is Top Esports playing without ZUIAN at Worlds?
Yes. ZUIAN couldn't travel to the US because of visa issues, so 369 plays top. TES is 4-2 in Worlds games with him.
How we did this: Snapp's League of Legends esports warehouse (match, series and per-game player tables), all matches from Jan. 1 through Oct. 31, 2026, the last day of the Worlds Swiss stage. Series records count major events only: league play and playoffs (LCK, LPL, LEC, LCS), First Stand, MSI, the Esports World Cup, Worlds and the LPL Regional Finals. Minor events (KeSPA Cup, Esports World Cup regional qualifiers, Demacia Cup, Cross Regional) are left out; with them in, T1 is 11-10 against the field, Dplus KIA is 7-8 in best-of-fives and Invictus leads Top Esports 4-3. Records are not adjusted for league strength, so an LEC or LCS record is not comparable to an LCK or LPL one; that is why the article leans on results against the other seven quarterfinalists, international events and head-to-head. Karmine Corp's Worlds record includes its three play-in series. 'Korean and Chinese teams left' means Gen.G, T1, Dplus KIA, Bilibili, Top Esports and Invictus; KC and LYON against them: KC 1-4 (won 2-1 over T1 at the Esports World Cup, July 18), LYON 0-4, 4 games won and 19 lost. Overall series ranks among the eight: Gen.G 80%, Bilibili 79%, KC 72%, Dplus KIA 67%, LYON 65%. 'Split 3 and regional finals' runs July 22 to Sept. 19. LYON's LCS record covers Lock-In, Spring and Summer. Player lines are Worlds 2026 games only, 4 to 18 games per team, so they're small samples. Prediction-market prices from Kalshi and Polymarket US on Nov. 1, 2026 (KC-T1 from Kalshi). ZUIAN's absence from RG.org, Oct. 30, 2026, confirmed by the warehouse showing 369 at top in all six TES Worlds games. T1's 2024 and 2025 titles are in the warehouse; its 2023 title (3-0 over Weibo Gaming) is from the public record. Logos from lolesports.com.