Timberwolves vs. HeatFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalKaseya Center · Miami
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 24 | 36 | 31 | 34 | 125 |
| MIA | 23 | 33 | 28 | 40 | 124 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMinnesota Timberwolves to win 57¢
Why Coaches Corner likes it: Spoelstra said Miami's preseason plan is loose; 40% of the starting lineup and 50% of the primary rotation are new.
Coaches CornerUp 1% return this season · 961 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-1 on this game · +24% return
- Minnesota Timberwolves to win+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Spoelstra said Miami's preseason plan is loose; 40% of the starting lineup and 50% of the primary rotation are new.
- The game preview expects both teams' regulars to be limited to the first half and specifically gives Minnesota's end of bench the second-half edge.
- Miami's home-court advantage and Spoelstra's tactical adjustments could overcome the bench mismatch.
- Over 234.5 points+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: expected total is about 236 points versus the 234.5-point Kalshi rung.
- Miami dictates tempo: 113.0 pace in its two 2026 preseason games versus Minnesota's 103.5; Miami's recent pace is +9.5 versus Minnesota.
- Efficiency read: Minnesota 110.2 ORtg against Miami 98.95 DRtg; Miami 113.8 ORtg against Minnesota 106.6 DRtg.
- Only about a 1.5-point projection cushion over the 234.5 rung; preseason minutes and shooting variance dominate.
- Miami Heat to win−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 43.67¢ takeable ProphetX price implies 43.7%; my estimate is 50%.
- Current injury report lists Giannis Antetokounmpo, Bam Adebayo, Klay Thompson and other Heat regulars out for rest.
- Minnesota also rests Anthony Edwards, LaMelo Ball, Rudy Gobert and Jonathan Kuminga, reducing the Wolves' top-end advantage.
- Preseason rotations are unusually volatile, and the reported starters are projections rather than confirmed lineups.
Questions
Who won Timberwolves vs. Heat?
The Timberwolves won 125–124 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.