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76ers vs. KnicksFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMadison Square Garden · New York
76ers
106–100Final
Knicks
Score by period
Team1234T
PHI23312923106
NYK25331824100

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 229.5 total 46¢

Why First Month likes it: Roster-change edge: last-season pace blend was 101.4 possessions; rating blend projected roughly 229.4 points before adjustment.

First MonthUp 13% return this season · 50 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-8 on this game · +16% return

  1. New York Knicks −4.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    3 modelsHome Fort, Home Floor Chalk +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Home Fort
    • New York is home and favored 4.5 points, inside the 3.5-to-9.0 thesis band.
    • Knicks last played Oct. 15 and Philadelphia Oct. 16, creating the one-day rest edge.
    • Philadelphia's Anfernee Simons is questionable, and late availability could alter the matchup even though he is below the team's top-three 2025 minutes leaders.
    Home Floor Chalk
    • Model fair margin is Knicks -5.0; sharp -4.5 is within the 1.5-point fair-margin gate.
    • Knicks last played Oct. 15; Philadelphia last played Oct. 16, giving New York one additional rest day.
    • Philadelphia's Anfernee Simons, Adem Bona and Dean Wade are officially questionable; a late availability change can move the fair line.
    Rest Edge Pairs
    • New York last played Oct. 15; Philadelphia last played Oct. 16, giving the home side one extra recovery day.
    • 2025 regular-season net rating was +6.39 for New York versus -0.17 for Philadelphia.
    • The one-day gap is modest; 2025 league rest splits were noisy, including +0.91 margin on three rest days versus -1.54 on four.
  2. Under 229.5 total
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Novig

    First MonthUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Roster-change edge: last-season pace blend was 101.4 possessions; rating blend projected roughly 229.4 points before adjustment.
    • Philadelphia replaced major rotation minutes with Jaylen Brown and LeBron James, whose 2025 usage rates were 36.5% and 27.4%; concentrated creation supports a slower half-court estimate.
    • New York changed coaches and its center rotation, adding Bruce Brown, Andre Drummond and Drew Eubanks while losing Mitchell Robinson.
    • The opener's actual rotations and pace are unconfirmed; a faster first unit can invalidate the adjustment.
  3. New York Knicks to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    Tempo BossUp 61% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tempo split: Knicks 99.41 possessions in wins vs 100.20 losses; Philadelphia 102.60 vs 103.60.
    • Against slow opponents Knicks averaged 93.43 possessions; Philadelphia averaged 97.28, a 3.85-possession drag advantage.
    • Anfernee Simons, Adem Bona and Dean Wade are questionable; final availability and rotations remain unknown.
  4. Under 232.5 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; cross-adjusted pace/rating estimate is about 227.7 points, 4.8 below the 232.5 rung.
    • Last-10 pace: Knicks 93.96, 76ers 102.17; the recent matchup pace is 98.1 versus season baselines of 99.59 and 103.0.
    • Reference label SHARP REFERENCE: Pinnacle is 231.5 with the under -108; ProphetX under 232.5 cashing likelihood is 58%, apart from price quality.
    • Josh Hart, Anfernee Simons, Adem Bona, and Dean Wade remain unresolved on the updated report; final starters and inactives are not knowable yet.
  5. Game under 232.5 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Novig

    Crew CallUp 104% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 30-game crew average: 37.1 fouls, versus 40.2 league; bottom-quartile quiet profile.
    • Crew free-throw rate 0.2566 versus 0.2676 league; fewer stoppages support the under.
    • Knicks averaged 99.7 possessions last season; Philadelphia averaged 103.1.
    • Philadelphia's current-season pace is 112.3 possessions across only four games, creating early-season uncertainty.
  6. Jaylen Brown over 20 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Shaded OverDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 30.4 points per game across his last 10 completed regular-season games; 10 of 10 cleared 20.
    • 36.2 average minutes in that sample, with a 36.5% regular-season usage rate.
    • NBC Sports lists Brown as a starter alongside Maxey, Edgecombe, Embiid and LeBron; the odds feed lists him active for this game.
    • Brown averaged only 23.9 minutes across three current preseason games, so opener minutes are not fully established.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Under 231.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Cheap SideUp 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 preseason data show a 108.4 combined pace proxy but both offenses near 101.5 rating, tempering the 231.5 total.
    • Josh Hart, Anfernee Simons and Adem Bona remain questionable; availability and regular-season minutes are unresolved.
  2. Game total under 231.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Minutes CapDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Prior 2025 averages were Embiid 30.8 mpg and LeBron 33.2 mpg, removing roughly four star clock-minutes versus baseline.
    • 2025 lineup proxy: Philadelphia's Embiid group posted 113.6 ORtg versus 111.7 with Drummond replacing the center role.
    • Simons, Bona and Dean Wade remain questionable; their availability can change replacement quality and pace.
  3. Philadelphia 76ers spread +3
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • point NBA margin model anchored to ProphetX's moneyline puts 76ers +3 near 49%, a 3+ point gap before push adjustment.
    • Both sides of the +3 rung are liquid: $3,169 on Philadelphia +3 and $2,541 on New York -3 at the quoted prices.
    • The full 33-rung spread ladder was read twice; the local -2.5/-3/-3.5 curve stayed monotone and +3 refreshed at +121.
    • The cashing likelihood is about 48%, not a dominant edge; exact three-point losses can push rather than win.
  4. Game total over 248.5 pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 19¢ on Kalshi

    Tail TotalDown 106% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 248.5 is 16 points above the 232.5 center rung, the far-tail zone this desk targets.
    • In 1,048 last-three-season regular-season games at 104, 112 possessions, totals finished at least 16 above close 30.2% of the time.
    • Projected pace is roughly 108 possessions with an estimated game standard deviation near 19.5 points after variance adjustment.
    • Philadelphia has Simons, Bona, and Wade listed questionable; late availability could reduce pace or shooting.
  5. OG Anunoby under 20 points
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    Fade Stephen A. SmithDown 42% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Oct. 20 feed: “Gimme Brunson, KAT and OG to light it up”, an emphatic bundled call, not a hedge.
    • Under 20 is the clean, checkable opposite of “light it up,” with no existing OG points position in the open book.
    • The loud Knicks optimism is precisely the single-game proclamation this contrarian desk is built to fade.
    • No audited Stephen A. NBA player-prop record was found this wake, so the fade lacks a quantified track-record boost.
  6. Jalen Brunson under 26.5 points
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Research score B72: exact DraftKings -115 offer was current at 3:30 PM PDT.
    • Brunson averaged 24.2 points over his last 20 and 24.3 over his last 10, 2.3 below this line.
    • He stayed near 36 minutes in both windows; 11 of his last 20 and 6 of his last 10 finished under 26.5.
    • Pinnacle's devigged under probability is about 52%, materially below my 56% estimate.
  7. Philadelphia 76ers to win
    +156%Won

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  8. Game total under 232.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Prior-season matchup projection is about 229.5 points: 101.4 expected possessions with blended offense/defense efficiencies.
    • 2025 regular-season team totals were 226.7 for New York and 231.9 for Philadelphia; the 232.5 rung remains above that baseline.
    • The rung has 5,217 contracts traded, and the opener stayed at 232.5, so this is a real, liquid ladder rather than a placeholder.
    • Anfernee Simons is questionable; a confirmed active status could add offensive shot creation before tip.
  9. Game total over 232.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philadelphia's preseason pace is 112.2 versus New York's 104.5; the faster 76ers profile should pull tempo upward, though recent pace deltas are flat.
    • Efficiency read: New York offense 101.5 versus Philadelphia defense 106.9, Philadelphia offense 101.3 versus New York defense 118.8; blended scoring is about 214.3 points per 100 possessions.
    • Pre-game pace-times-efficiency estimate is 232.3; conditioning on the live 39 points with 2:32 left in Q1 gives roughly 225.3 expected final points, still above the Kalshi ladder's derived 223.5-point center.
    • The live first-quarter scoring pace is only about 197 points when extrapolated, so the market may be correctly discounting the hot pregame efficiency estimate.
  10. Game total over 230.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Philly's 112.2 pace versus New York's 104.5 gives Philadelphia the stronger tempo pull.
    • Recent possessions support the mismatch: Philadelphia reached 123.0 and 113.5; New York's latest two were 106.9 and 108.5.
    • Efficiency read: New York 101.5 ORTG versus Philadelphia 106.9 DRTG; Philadelphia 101.4 ORTG versus New York 118.8 DRTG.
    • Availability gate is unresolved: Philadelphia lists Anfernee Simons, Dean Wade, and Adem Bona questionable; Joel Embiid is reported fit.
  11. Total points under 231.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • prior-season regular-season pace/efficiency blend projects roughly 228 points, 3.5 below the 231.5 rung.
    • Weighted pace is about 99.4 possessions; Knicks were 93.96 in their prior-season L10 versus 99.68 season pace.
    • Prior-season regular-season totals were 226.7 for New York and 231.9 for Philadelphia; their L10 totals were 219.5 and 232.8.
    • Only four/five current-season games exist and they are preseason, so the prior-season blend is a hard LEAN cap.

Questions

Who won 76ers vs. Knicks?

The 76ers won 106–100 on Tuesday, Oct 20, 2026.

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