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Bulls vs. RaptorsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalScotiabank Arena · Toronto
Bulls
92–135Final
Raptors
Score by period
Team1234T
CHI2321272192
TOR43263432135

Top model pick, graded

Won

Toronto Raptors −10.5 −108

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: Toronto's last-10 scoring margin was +2.0 versus Chicago's -10.6.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% return this season · 85 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-6 on this game · +39% return

  1. Game total under 237.53 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    3 modelsFirst Month, Price Cap +1
    Why 3 models like it
    First Month
    • Projected total 232, 234 from last-season cross-match ratings and a 103.4 blended-possession baseline.
    • Toronto averaged 101.5 possessions and Chicago 105.2 last season; 237.5 requires a materially faster or more efficient opener.
    • Season opener means zero 2026 regular-season sample; first-game pace and rotation patterns are unconfirmed.
    Price Cap
    • Model mean is 235.1 points from a 50/50 blend of current five-game ratings and last regular season.
    • Blended pace is 104.7 possessions; both teams have five days since their last preseason game.
    • The five-game preseason sample is volatile: Chicago totals ranged 204-261 and Toronto 220-254.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 2025 cross-efficiency blend projects roughly 224.7 points at 103.4 blended possessions.
    • Chicago averaged 105.2 possessions but Toronto 101.5; this is not a clean two-track-meets-up matchup.
    • No completed 2026 games exist; 2025 aggregate efficiency is a fallback and caps conviction at medium.
  2. Toronto Raptors −10.52 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    2 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Coaches Corner
    Why 2 models like it
    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
    • Toronto's last-10 scoring margin was +2.0 versus Chicago's -10.6.
    • Toronto led 112.5-106.5 in last-10 offensive rating and 110.5-116.5 defensively.
    • The 12.6-point margin gap is a prior-season last-10 proxy, not a 2026 game sample.
    Coaches Corner
    • Toronto's leading 2025 lineup produced a +7.6 net rating over 353.7 minutes.
    • Toronto has year-three continuity under Darko Rajakovic; Tiago Splitter is beginning his first full Chicago season.
    • No confirmed starting fives or minute caps; an opener can produce conservative rotations.
  3. Toronto Raptors spread −10.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 82-game net ratings were Toronto +2.55 versus Chicago -5.02, a 7.57-point efficiency gap before home court.
    • Official 1:10 PM report has Chicago's Nic Claxton out after 68 starts last season; Toronto's listed outs are lower-rotation absences.
    • Pinnacle moved from Toronto -9.5 +100 (48.6% devigged) to -10.5 -105/-105 (50.0%), a one-point move toward Toronto.
    • Most likely loss: Toronto wins but by 10 or fewer points, making the double-digit spread vulnerable.
  4. Kawhi Leonard points under 25
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Toronto's over-12.5 spread rung is 41.5%, clearing the 30% truncation gate.
    • Kawhi's 2025 regular-season baseline was 27.9 points in 32.1 minutes.
    • In Toronto's current-team 50-point blowout, Kawhi played 16.7 minutes and scored 21.
    • Kawhi can reach 25 before a lead becomes uncompetitive, or Toronto may fail to create the expected margin.
  5. Scottie Barnes over 19.5 points
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Novig

    Shaded PropUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Scottie Barnes’ last 10 points are 26, 33, 23, 17, 25, 24, 11, 12, 19, 23; median is 23.
    • Last-10 scoring rate averages 0.69 points per minute; a 35-minute role implies roughly 24 points.
    • His 2026 preseason average was 16.25 points in 21.18 minutes, below this threshold.
  6. Norman Powell over 2.5 three-pointers made
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8.76 last-10 three-point attempts per 36 projects to about 7.8 attempts with pace and Toronto's allowed rate applied.
    • Poisson-style mean is about 3.03 makes, producing a 58% fair probability for 3+ threes.
    • Jordan Hawkins is officially out and Powell is the expected starting guard, concentrating Chicago perimeter minutes.
    • Toronto allowed 3PA at a below-average 0.35 per possession last season; the defense is not a bottom-third matchup.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Toronto Raptors spread −9.5
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on FanDuel

    Home FortUp 9% profit over 19 picks
    Why it likes it
    • Chicago’s away 3-point rate is 0.12; the SQL zero-fill makes the early-game luck gap 0.12, above the 0.02 gate.
    • Series game number is 1, satisfying the early-series trigger.
    • FanDuel currently prices Toronto -9.5 at -130 in alternate_spreads; the opening board was -9.5.
    • FanDuel’s current -130 is materially worse than the captured -115 opening price.
  2. Chicago Bulls +10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Sharp Wallet DogDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair cover is 58%: Chicago's current preseason net rating is +6.44 versus Toronto's +5.78.
    • Sharp books agree on the same main spread, Raptors -10.5; devigged Bulls-cover reference is 50.0%.
    • Both teams have five rest days; no back-to-back or three-in-four edge favors Toronto.
    • Nic Claxton is officially out for Chicago; the replacement rotation and final lineups are not confirmed two hours before tip.
  3. Game total under 233.5
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjusted last-25 role model projects 231.7 total, 5.8 points below the 237.5 sharp-book main line.
    • Shrunk road/home inputs: Chicago 111.1 ORTG and 104.2 pace; Toronto 114.0 ORTG and 101.7 pace.
    • The current-season sample is only two Bulls and three Raptors role games; the last-25 window spans a roster transition.
  4. Chicago Bulls spread +10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Crowd EchoUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability 55%; L5 net ratings are nearly even: Bulls +6.44 versus Raptors +5.78.
    • Official availability is live: Chicago's Claxton is out, but Toronto's listed absences are Smith and Bittle.
    • Claxton's left-hamstring absence may be worth more than this rating adjustment credits.
  5. Chicago Bulls over 236 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Sharp DriftDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The full ProphetX total ladder was read: adjacent over prices are monotonic through 235.5/236/236.5, screening out an off-market stale rung.
    • Chicago's official report lists Nic Claxton out, which could suppress interior offense and pace even though it does not explain the upward sharp move.
  6. Jakob Poeltl under 19.5 points + rebounds + assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poeltl averaged 12.5 PRA across four current preseason games, 35.9% below the 19.5 PrizePicks line.
    • Chicago’s current preseason defense posted a 107.8 rating and .5237 opponent eFG%, a favorable under matchup.
    • FantasyData’s live lineup lookup lists Poeltl as Toronto’s starting center; PrizePicks’ participant feed marks him Active.
    • The sample is only four preseason games, with Poeltl averaging 20.8 minutes; regular-season minutes could rise materially.
  7. Scottie Barnes under 6.0 assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 3.25 assists per game over four current preseason games is 45.8% below the 6.0 PrizePicks line.
    • Chicago allowed a 107.8 preseason defensive rating and .5237 opponent eFG%, the stronger defensive profile in this matchup.
    • FantasyData’s live lineup lookup lists Barnes as a Toronto starter; PrizePicks’ participant feed marks him Active.
    • Only four preseason games inform the recent-form number, and Barnes averaged just 21.2 minutes.
  8. Chicago Bulls to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 21¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sportsbooks also price Chicago as a +350 to +360 underdog, aligning with the sourced direction.
    • The visible position snapshot is truncated, so an unseen hedge cannot be fully excluded.
  9. Kawhi Leonard over 25.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −111 on DraftKings

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • His 2,085 minutes across 65 games imply a 32.1-minute baseline, roughly 27.9 points at that scoring rate.
    • The sportsbook participant feed lists Leonard Active for Toronto, confirming game identity and availability.
    • Toronto's full-game total moved upward, providing a supportive scoring environment.
    • Leonard is new to Toronto; role, spacing and minutes redistribution are not fully established.
  10. Toronto Raptors spread −12.5
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Opener GapDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • fair Toronto margin is -15.2 after a 60/40 full-season/L10 blend.
    • Toronto’s prior-season net was +2.55 versus Chicago -5.02; L10 net was +11.64 versus -10.00.
    • Home court adds 2.0 points; rest differential is 0 and opponent-schedule adjustment is approximately 0.0.
    • Most likely loss: Toronto wins by 12 or fewer, with Chicago’s +12.5 covering.
  11. Chicago Bulls @ Toronto Raptors under 239 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • prior-season/L10 blend projects roughly 104.0 possessions, below the high-230s ladder pace.
    • Blended opponent-adjusted rates project about 234-235 total points, at least 4 points below the 239 rung.
    • Toronto averaged 101.5 possessions last season and 100.3 over its last 10; that is the stated slow-down mechanism.
    • Current-season sample is zero games, so the prior-season blend is a hard LEAN cap; major roster turnover makes the estimate fragile.

Questions

Who won Bulls vs. Raptors?

The Raptors won 135-92 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.

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