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Pacers vs. PelicansFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSmoothie King Center · New Orleans
Pacers
123–120Final
Pelicans
Score by period
Team1234T
IND38183037123
NOP31352628120

Top model pick, graded

Won

New Orleans Pelicans +3.5 52¢

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-17 on this game · −51% return

  1. Game total under 238.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    4 modelsHigh Bar, Coaches Corner +2
    Why 4 models like it
    High Bar
    • 2025 season PPG sum was 227.9, 10.6 points below the 238.5 market total.
    • 2025 last-10 PPG sum was 234.0, still 4.5 points below the posted total.
    • Indiana's last-10 scoring was 118.1 versus 112.4 season-long; continued shooting improvement can beat regression.
    Coaches Corner
    • 238.5 is 8.2 points above the teams' combined 2026 preseason scoring average of 230.3.
    • New Orleans averaged 105.8 possessions and a 104.2 defensive rating in four preseason games.
    • New Orleans' starting lineup remains uncertain, so Mosley's new scheme could be less cohesive than expected.
    Cheap Side
    • 2025 regular-season baselines combine for 227.9 points at nearly identical 103.6/103.7 possessions.
    • 2026 preseason samples combined for 230.3 average points; Indiana loses McConnell and Nesmith, with Smith doubtful.
    • Pinnacle's reference is one point off the traded 238.5 rung, so the comparison is derived and model error is amplified.
    high-confidence main markets
    • Preseason game totals averaged 229.4 across the two teams; the matchup-specific sample is 9.1 points below 238.5.
    • Prior regular-season efficiency and pace inputs project roughly 232, 234 total points before the current roster adjustment.
    • Projected starting groups are reported, not a formally confirmed opening lineup; a late scratch or unexpected minutes plan could change the total.
  2. Game total under 239.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsOpener Ladder, First Month +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Opener Ladder
    • Efficiency/pace blend projects roughly 234.5 points before the conservative early-season adjustment; adjusted read is about 232, 233.
    • Last-season pace was nearly identical: New Orleans 103.7 and Indiana 103.6 possessions per game.
    • Both defenses posted high last-season ratings allowed: 115.8 for New Orleans and 116.4 for Indiana.
    First Month
    • Last-season pace was 103.6 Pacers and 103.7 Pelicans; roster-adjusted projection is approximately 234 total points.
    • New Orleans lost Jordan Hawkins and Jose Alvarado rotation usage, while a coaching change adds uncertainty but supports a conservative tempo adjustment.
    • Both defenses allowed roughly 120 points per game last season, so poor resistance can produce an over.
    Pace Mismatch
    • Projected total is 233, 6.5 points below Kalshi’s 239.5 market center.
    • Last-10 possession blend is 106.9, with New Orleans the slower side; no pace-up matchup.
    • Projection blends a short early-season sample with prior games; regular rotations may materially change efficiency.
  3. Game total under 2402 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsPace Pair, Tempo Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    Pace Pair
    • Edge class: PROJECTION; blended projection is approximately 232 points, 8 below the 240 rung.
    • Pace profile: Indiana 111.2 season / 106.3 last-10; New Orleans 105.8 / 107.5, creating a meaningful tempo mismatch.
    • Both teams last played October 16 with no back-to-back or three-in-four flag; fresh legs can lift tempo and efficiency.
    Tempo Clock
    • Edge class: PROJECTION; 60/40 prior-season/L10 pace blend projects about 104.6 possessions and roughly 232 points.
    • Early-season mechanism: season opener, Pacers missing Furphy, McConnell and Nesmith; continuity and depth uncertainty favor a slower offensive baseline.
    • Most likely loss path: Tyrese Haliburton's return produces an efficient, up-tempo Pacers offense that overwhelms the prior-season baseline.
  4. New Orleans Pelicans +3.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  5. New Orleans Pelicans spread +3.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjusted power rating is 54.0%: four current-season efficiency games, home court, and Indiana's McConnell/Nesmith outs.
    • Most likely loss: Indiana wins by four or more despite New Orleans' home-court advantage.
  6. New Orleans Pelicans spread +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current 2026 ratings: Indiana +1.625 net versus New Orleans +0.300; adding the 2.0-point home edge projects New Orleans +0.7.
    • At 12-point margin standard deviation, New Orleans +1.5 covers about 57% in the model.
    • Both sides are quoted and the spread ladder is monotone at this rung.
    • The ratings are based on only four preseason games entering the first regular-season contest.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Game total under 249.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana dictates tempo at 111.2 pace versus New Orleans 105.8; both pace_l10_delta readings are 0.0.
    • Cross-match efficiency projects Indiana 106.2 and New Orleans 105.5 points per 100 possessions.
    • Live blend: 69 first-quarter points plus 57.4 per remaining quarter projects 241.2, 8.3 below 249.5.
    • The opening quarter produced 69 points; 60.2 per quarter the rest of the way beats 249.5.
  2. New Orleans Pelicans cover +3.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    Home Dog HoldUp 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 regular-season net ratings favor New Orleans by 3.26 points before home court.
    • Adding 2.25 home-court points gives a +5.5 Pelicans margin estimate before absences.
    • Fresh injury report lists no New Orleans player out; Indiana absences are Aaron Nesmith, T.J. McConnell and Johnny Furphy.
    • Nesmith and McConnell are confirmed out, and their combined rotation impact could erase much of the rating edge.
  3. Game total under 237.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Novig

    Cheap SideUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair total is 229.3 after pace/efficiency blending and a neutral rest adjustment.
    • Pacers/Pelicans L10 pace: 111.2/105.8; L10 total profiles: 238.0/220.8.
    • Current-season samples are only four games per team, so the L10 inputs are thin.
  4. Pascal Siakam over 20 points
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Shaded OverDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Close-game gate cleared: Kalshi's spread ladder centers at Indiana +3.5, well inside the 8-point limit.
    • Starter/minutes gate cleared: current lineup data shows four starts, while his prior regular-season workload averaged 33.2 minutes.
    • New Orleans' current four-game defensive rating is 104.2, a potentially difficult matchup.
  5. Game total under 233.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 38¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Role-adjusted model: 232.5 points versus the 239.5 sharp main line; the 3-point gate clears by 4.0.
    • Last-25 venue splits shrunk 50%: Indiana away pace 103.0, New Orleans home pace 103.1.
    • The model is only about one point below the 233.5 rung; normal NBA scoring variance dominates the threshold.
  6. Pascal Siakam over 20.5 points
    +78%Won

    Taken at −128 on FanDuel

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 45 of 72 regular-season games cleared 20.5 points in 2025 (62.5%, no pushes).
    • In 60 games with 25+ minutes, Siakam went over 20.5 in 45 (75%).
    • 2025 average was 24.03 points in 25+ minute games, 3.53 above the line.
    • His first four 2026 games averaged only 13.25 points in 20.82 minutes, including 0 of 4 over 20.5.
  7. Tyrese Haliburton under 8.5 assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +101 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2024 baseline: 8.855 assists per game across 76 regular-season games, only slightly above 8.5.
    • Official Pacers preview lists Haliburton in the starting lineup; the live odds feed marks him Active for this game.
    • He is returning from an Achilles injury after no 2025 regular-season sample, creating meaningful minutes and workload uncertainty.
    • T.J. McConnell is out, which could consolidate Indiana's ball-handling into Haliburton and raise assist chances.
  8. Andrew Nembhard under 23 points + rebounds + assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 13.0 PRA average across three preseason games (18, 14, 7) is 43% below the 23 line.
    • At his 19.6 preseason minutes, a 30-minute projection is about 19.8 PRA, roughly 14% below line.
    • New Orleans posted a 104.2 preseason defensive rating, tied for top-five, with a 105.8 pace.
    • Nembhard averaged 27.4 PRA in 57 games last season at 31.3 minutes, above this line.
  9. New Orleans Pelicans to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 43¢ on Polymarket US

    Tempo BossUp 61% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • NOP's 2.6-possession win/loss tempo swing is materially stronger than Indiana's -0.7.
    • NOP transition offense supplies 19.7% of possessions versus Indiana's 19.3%.
    • Polymarket US offers Pelicans at 0.43; Pinnacle's two-way devig is 41.9%, while my fair probability is 48.0%.
    • The tempo and efficiency sample is last season's 82-game regular season; 2026-27 regular-season data is not yet published.
  10. Game under 239.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 229.6 expected points (108.5 possessions × 211.7 combined points per 100), 9.9 below the 239.5 rung.
    • Pacers dictate tempo: 111.2 pace versus New Orleans 105.8; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0, so Indiana's faster profile is the controlling side without a recent surge.
    • Efficiency read: Indiana expected 106.2 points/100 against New Orleans; New Orleans expected 105.5 against Indiana.
    • Only four current-season warehouse games inform the pace and efficiency sample, all preseason rows, so the 9.9-point gap is projection-sensitive.
  11. Game under 238.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Eight pre-opening-game rows average 229.9 combined points, 8.6 below this total.
    • Indiana's four rows average 119.8 points; New Orleans' four average 110.5.
    • Opponent-allowed averages imply roughly 229 points using each team's recent scoring and defense.
    • The sample is only eight pre-opening rows and may be preseason-level competition.

Questions

Who won Pacers vs. Pelicans?

The Pacers won 123–120 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.

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