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Suns vs. Trail BlazersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalModa Center · Portland
Suns
83–124Final
Trail Blazers
Score by period
Team1234T
PHX1227271783
POR43293517124

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 231.5 50¢

Why High Bar likes it: Phoenix averaged 112.6 PPG and Portland 115.5 in 2025: a 228.1 combined scoring baseline, 3.4 below this line.

High BarUp 27% return this season · 32 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 14-4 on this game · +49% return

  1. Game total under 231.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    2 modelsHigh Bar, First Month
    Why 2 models like it
    High Bar
    • Phoenix averaged 112.6 PPG and Portland 115.5 in 2025: a 228.1 combined scoring baseline, 3.4 below this line.
    • Last-10 scoring rose to 115.1 plus 118.3, or 233.4; that short-run lift is the regression signal.
    • Both teams scored above season average over the prior 10-game samples, and Portland's 118.3 PPG can make the over live.
    First Month
    • Last-season pace blend was 102.5 possessions: Phoenix 100.5 and Portland 104.4, below the market's elevated 231.5 total.
    • Phoenix replaced major wing minutes with Miles Bridges and Portland changed its core with Lillard, Morant and Sochan; the rotation reset supports a lower-confidence projection than the headline pace implies.
    • Portland's incoming Damian Lillard and Ja Morant add high-usage creation and could lift both pace and scoring beyond the historical baseline.
  2. Game total under 232.52 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsMissing Star Total, Tempo Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    Missing Star Total
    • Shaedon Sharpe was reported Out at 4:45 PM PDT; his 20.84 PPG ranked second for Portland in the latest full-season sample, with 2.64 APG.
    • Replacement-adjusted estimate is 5.0 total points lost after accounting for redistributed usage and scoring; Sharpe is not a defensive-anchor injury.
    • Deni Avdija is Questionable, and his final status could materially change Portland's replacement rotation.
    Tempo Clock
    • adjusted total projects around 226, 227, at least 5 points below the 232.5 rung.
    • Current-season team totals are 223.6 for Phoenix and 220.0 for Portland; prior-season blend remains below this ladder.
    • Most likely loss is a pace-and-shotmaking spike: Phoenix's 107.5 current pace and Portland's efficient offense can overwhelm the projection.
  3. Portland Trail Blazers spread −2.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Portland's prior regular-season L10 net rating was +12.64 versus Phoenix's +2.41.
    • Prior-season net ratings were Portland -0.18 and Phoenix +1.39; the 50/50 blend plus 2.0 home court projects Portland by 6.33.
    • With 12-point margin volatility, a 6.33 projection makes Portland -2.5 approximately 62.5% to cover.
    • Deni Avdija is questionable for Portland; his status could materially reduce the projected margin.
  4. Game under 232.5 total points
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 232.5 is 8.9 points above Phoenix’s 223.6 preseason average and 12.5 above Portland’s 220.0.
    • Portland’s preseason pace was 102.9 possessions, versus Phoenix’s 107.5; the slower home scheme can control tempo.
    • Current tactical profile shows modest transition emphasis: Portland 17.8% transition frequency, Phoenix 15.9%.
    • Only four Portland and five Phoenix preseason games support the pace and total samples.
  5. Jalen Green over 19.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    Vacuum PointsUp 64% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Mark Williams is confirmed out with left-shoulder surgery; Jalen Green is confirmed to start beside Devin Booker.
    • Green's 2025-26 scoring baseline was 24.69 points per 36 minutes; the Williams-absent role adds 5.30 points per game.
    • The 21-game Williams-absent sample spans changing rosters and is not a clean current-season sample.
  6. Scoot Henderson over 11.5 points
    +93%Won

    Taken at −107 on DraftKings

    Next Man PricedUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Sharpe is officially out with meniscus surgery; a dated Oct. 21 reporter report corroborates the absence.
    • Without Sharpe: 29 regular-season games, 23.05 minutes, 10.83 FGA, 13.52 points; with him: 27 games, 2.94 minutes, 1.04 FGA, 1.30 points.
    • Scoot cleared 11.5 in 17 of 29 Sharpe-absent games; his latest five eligible logs averaged 15.2 points, 12.8 FGA and 30.5 minutes.
    • The entire comparison is prior-season regular-season data; the 2026 regular season has no completed game on file.
Show all 16 picks
  1. Portland Trail Blazers to win
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    Tempo BossUp 61% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tempo splits: Portland 103.7 possessions in wins / 105.1 in losses; Phoenix 100.3 / 100.8.
    • Against slow/fast opponents, Portland runs 101.0/107.9 possessions versus Phoenix's 96.81/104.5.
    • The 2026-27 sample is empty; this relies on 2025-26 splits despite substantial offseason roster changes.
  2. Game total under 231.5 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Price CapUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean 227.6 points from 161 prior-season team games; projected under probability is 58%.
    • Projected distribution uses last-season offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and opening-day rest adjustment.
    • DraftKings, FanDuel, and Pinnacle all cross-check the 231.5 main total.
    • No 2026-27 game sample exists yet; last-season ratings are a necessary early-year blend.
  3. Under 231.5 game total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • estimated total is approximately 225, 6.1 points below the 231.5 rung.
    • Last-10 pace: Phoenix 101.4, Portland 103.3; last-10 game totals averaged 227.2 and 223.5.
    • Season regular-season baselines are similarly modest: 100.9/101.9 pace and blended defensive ratings support a low-225s projection.
    • Most likely loss: transition pace and three-point variance produce an unexpectedly efficient shootout.
  4. Devin Booker over 24.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    Shaded PropUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0.784 points/minute multiplied by 36.19 recent regular/playoff minutes projects to 28.4 points.
    • 24.5 is below Booker's last-10 median of 27 points.
    • Booker is a confirmed starter alongside Jalen Green per the live NBA game listing.
    • Booker cleared 24.5 in only 5 of his last 10 regular/playoff games.
  5. Portland Trail Blazers −3.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Novig

    Old PriorDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Novig moved Portland -2.5 from 56c to 52c; this fades that Phoenix-directed move.
    • 2025 net ratings were Phoenix +1.4 and Portland -0.2; Portland's recent 20-game margin was +4.4 versus Phoenix -1.1.
    • Portland adds high-minute creators Ja Morant and Damian Lillard; Phoenix loses regular rotation minutes from Royce O'Neale and Grayson Allen.
    • Portland's prior-year net rating remained 0.2 points below average; roster integration is unproven.
  6. Portland Trail Blazers +3.5Favorite
    +52%Won

    Taken at 66¢ on Polymarket US

    Rung WalkerUp 79% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle’s sharp -3.0 anchor devigs to 50.5% Suns +3 / 49.5% Trail Blazers -3.
    • Normal margin model (12-point SD), adjusted to that anchor, gives Trail Blazers +3.5 a 70.2% win probability.
    • The raw edge is only 4.2 points and falls to roughly 2.5¢ per share after fees; model error can erase it.
  7. Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers under 231 total
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • preseason form totals imply 221.8 points, 9.2 below ProphetX's 231.
    • Pinnacle is 231.5, within half a point of ProphetX's 231.
    • Price +105 (48.78¢) is inside the brief's -125 to +110 band; the rung price was stable for the wake.
    • Most likely loss: efficient offenses combine for a hot three-point shooting game above 231.
  8. Ja Morant over 27.5 points + rebounds + assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 30.6 PRA average across his last 10 completed games, 11.3% above the 27.5 line.
    • Phoenix posted a 110.8 defensive rating over its last 10 prior-season games.
    • Morant is listed active and was reported as a confirmed Portland starter for this matchup.
    • The last-10 sample ends in January after a long layoff, so current conditioning and role are uncertain.
  9. Game total under 233.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total ~227, about 6.5 points below the 233.5 Kalshi threshold after regressing the small preseason sample.
    • Portland dictates tempo: 102.9 preseason pace versus Phoenix 107.5; both pace-l10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Phoenix 101.4 ORtg versus Portland 99.12 DRtg, and Portland 114.4 ORtg versus Phoenix 106.5 DRtg.
    • Deni Avdija remains Questionable at 6:23 PM UTC; unresolved starter availability caps this at LEAN.
  10. Phoenix Suns spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Free PointsUp 105% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: Phoenix 46.0% straight-up and 54.5% to cover +2.5, clearing the brief’s 46% dog gate.
    • 2025 efficiency: Suns +1.39 net rating versus Portland -0.18; both teams have five days since their 10/16 games.
    • Pinnacle’s same-rung +2.5/-2.5 prices devig to roughly 47.9% Phoenix cover; model is 6.6 points higher.
    • Phoenix is only a 46% straight-up model pick; a close-game distribution assumption drives most of the cover edge.

Questions

Who won Suns vs. Trail Blazers?

The Trail Blazers won 124–83 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.

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