Get app

Jazz vs. GrizzliesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFedExForum · Memphis
Jazz
103–123Final
Grizzlies
Score by period
Team1234T
UTA31202824103
MEM29353425123

Top model pick, graded

Won

Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies under 242.5 total points −110

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: 232.3 combined 2025 points per game is 10.2 below 242.5.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 15% return this season · 84 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 17-4 on this game · +59% return

  1. Game total under 241.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    2 modelsHigh Bar, Minutes Cap
    Why 2 models like it
    High Bar
    • Season scoring averages total 230.7 points: Utah 113.2 and Memphis 117.5.
    • Last-10 scoring averages total 230.8: Utah 113.3 and Memphis 117.5, with no last-10 inflation over season form.
    • The current-season sample is only four games per team, so regression estimates are fragile.
    Minutes Cap
    • the eight prior team-games averaged 221.4 total points; I project 236, 238.
    • Jazz and Memphis starters have mostly stayed below 25 minutes across four prior regular-season games.
    • Most likely loss: a competitive game forces 30-plus minutes and normal three-point/free-throw efficiency.
  2. Memphis Grizzlies to win2 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsTempo Boss, Crowd Echo
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Boss
    • Memphis tempo split: 105.3 possessions in wins / 104.2 in losses; Utah: 106.1 / 105.6.
    • Memphis suppressed opponents to 104.2 possessions versus Utah's 105.6 and had the larger win-loss pace separation.
    • Memphis enters off a poor recent stretch (0-5, -25.2 average margin); the 4.64-point edge over the sharp reference is still model-sensitive.
    Crowd Echo
    • Model: 60% Memphis win probability; recent net rating was MEM +6.48 versus UTA +3.35, with Memphis home court.
    • Pinnacle -126/+116 devigs to 54.6% Memphis; the model is 5.4 points higher, below the 8-point suspicion threshold.
    • The 60% estimate is materially above the 54.6% sharp reference; the model could simply be too aggressive.
  3. Utah Jazz game winner2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsTempo Boss, October Prior
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Boss
    • Utah pulled opponents 4.79 possessions above their recent baseline over the last 20; Memphis pulled opponents 1.94.
    • Utah's last-10 net rating was -13.81 versus Memphis at -19.28, clearing the efficiency gate.
    • Regular-season pace and efficiency samples are from the prior 20 completed regular-season games; 2026-27 regular-season form is not yet established.
    October Prior
    • Last-season net ratings were Memphis -5.75 and Utah -8.03 before roster changes.
    • Utah added Jaren Jackson Jr. (31 minutes, 45 starts); Memphis lost Jackson and Ja Morant, a substantial roster swing.
    • Utah has four players listed Out, including Jusuf Nurkic; cumulative depth impact may exceed the roster adjustment.
  4. Utah Jazz to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  5. Utah Jazz @ Memphis Grizzlies under 242.5 total points
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 232.3 combined 2025 points per game is 10.2 below 242.5.
    • Utah and Memphis posted -8.03 and -5.75 net ratings in the latest completed season.
    • Memphis enters off a -25.2 average margin over five; Utah is -13.2 in its last five.
    • The total rose from 241.5 to 242.5, a modest market move toward the over.
  6. Memphis Grizzlies spread −1.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 54.0%: preseason net Memphis +6.5 versus Utah +3.4, similar 103.8/103.6 pace, equal five-day rest, home court.
    • Open MEM -1 (-110) / UTA +1 (-102); current MEM -1.5 (-109) / UTA +1.5 (-101): half-point toward Memphis, probability essentially flat.
    • Most likely loss: Memphis wins by one or Utah wins outright, leaving -1.5 uncovered.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Memphis Grizzlies spread −2.5
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current 2026 net ratings: Memphis +6.475 versus Utah +3.350 across four games, a +3.125 differential.
    • Home-court adjustment is +2.0; neither team is on a back-to-back, with Memphis listed on seven rest days versus Utah's four.
    • The rating sample is only four early-season games, so preseason rotation noise can overwhelm the model.
  2. Under 240.5 total points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-season pace averaged 104.5 for Memphis and 105.7 for Utah, not an elite-pace pairing.
    • Cross-efficiency projection is about 238 points before the brief's conservative early-season rotation adjustment.
    • Full-season eFG was only .535/.538, with three-point attempt rates of 15.5%/13.9% and free-throw rates of 25.4%/27.9%.
    • Last-20 defensive ratings were poor: 124.0 Memphis and 120.8 Utah, which can produce a shootout.
  3. Memphis wins by over 2.5 points
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Memphis winner YES is 53.5¢, while the 1.5-point rung is 51.5¢.
    • The Memphis ladder drops 6¢ from over 1.5 to over 2.5, versus only 2¢ from over 2.5 to over 3.5.
    • The 6¢ seam may reflect a genuine Memphis one-to-two-point margin cluster, not a mispricing.
  4. Game total under 242.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    First MonthUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • last-season pace was 105.7 Utah and 104.5 Memphis, with combined scoring of 232.3 points per game.
    • Both coaches remain in place, so there is no identified coaching-driven tempo increase.
    • Both defenses were poor last season: Utah allowed 119.3 and Memphis 115.6 points per game.
  5. total points under 240
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coach-controlled pace history: Memphis averaged 104.5 possessions and Utah 105.7 over 82 games in 2025-26.
    • The paired 210.2-possession baseline is materially below the 240-point ProphetX rung; the total has not fully absorbed that slow-style profile.
    • Pinnacle's current total remains 241.5; ProphetX offers the under at the lower 240 line.
    • Most likely loss: early three-point efficiency or transition scoring overwhelms the coaches' historical pace control.
  6. Game total under 242.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Pace MismatchUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • L10 pace averages 105.2 Memphis and 107.8 Utah; slower-team bias projects roughly 104.5 possessions.
    • L10 efficiency blend projects approximately 226 total points before matchup adjustments.
    • Both teams' L10 eFG% is near 53%, offering little evidence that unusually hot shooting should sustain 242-plus scoring.
    • The sample combines only four current-season games with late-2025-26 games and roster turnover is substantial.
  7. Ace Bailey over 10 points
    +56%Won

    Taken at 64¢ on Kalshi

    Shaded OverDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Ace scored at least 10 in all 10 most recent 2025-26 regular-season games, averaging 18.5 points in 32.8 minutes.
    • 2025-26 usage was 21.5%; the final lineup has Bailey starting, with Utah’s Jusuf Nurkic officially out.
    • DraftKings cross-check: Bailey over 11.5 points at -110, consistent with a meaningful chance of clearing the lower 10+ rung.
    • The current season sample is only four preseason games: Bailey reached 10+ in three, with 6 points in the miss.
  8. Game total under 242
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • last regular-season pace averages 105.1 possessions; blended offensive projection is about 239.6 total, below 242.
    • Pinnacle is 241.5, within 0.5 point; the ProphetX 242 under quote has remained stable near -105 through the late pregame read.
    • Utah's 119.3 last-season defensive rating and a high-variance three-point game can push the total over.
  9. Game under 242.5 total points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 103.65 projected possessions with combined matchup efficiency around 217.6 points per 100 possessions implies 225.4 total points.
    • Tempo read: neither team dictates strongly; Memphis averaged 103.8 preseason possessions and Utah 103.5, both near their season-to-date preseason marks.
    • Efficiency read: Memphis 113.0 ORTG vs Utah 106.1 DRTG, and Utah 109.5 ORTG vs Memphis 106.5 DRTG, still below the market's 242.5 rung.
    • Self-reference only: Pinnacle's 241.5 total is a different rung, so no independent sharp same-line price is claimed.
  10. Game under 240.5 total points
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Combined pace is 103.65 possessions: Memphis 103.8 and Utah 103.5, both flat versus their season baselines; neither side clearly dictates tempo.
    • Efficiency projection: Utah 109.5 offense vs Memphis 106.5 defense and Memphis 113.0 offense vs Utah 106.1 defense imply approximately 225.5 points.
    • Projection is about 15 points below the 240.5 rung; this is a PROJECTION edge with VENUE SELF-REFERENCE and no same-rung independent sharp quote.
    • Isaiah Stewart remains officially doubtful, and several Jazz reserves are out; a late rotation change could move efficiency materially.
  11. Game total under 240.5
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current four-game team samples project closer to roughly 228-230 combined points.
    • Memphis and Utah are both playing at about 103-104 possessions per game in the current sample.
    • Recent team totals: Memphis 228.2 and Utah 223.0; the posted number is more than 10 points higher.
    • The four-game sample is preseason-heavy and not a stable regular-season baseline.
  12. Game total over 240.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 105.9 possessions × 230.5 blended points/100 ≈ 243.9, 3.4 above 240.5.
    • Last-10/season blend: Utah 107.0 pace, Memphis 104.7; opponent-adjusted ratings project 115.7 and 114.8.
    • Pinnacle's main total is 242, while ProphetX offers over 240.5.
    • No current-season regular-game sample; the required prior-season blend caps this at LEAN.

Questions

Who won Jazz vs. Grizzlies?

The Grizzlies won 123–103 on Wednesday, Oct 21, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.