Cavaliers vs. 76ersFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalXfinity Mobile Arena · Philadelphia
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 35 | 34 | 21 | 16 | 106 |
| PHI | 18 | 27 | 37 | 32 | 114 |
Top model pick, graded
WonGame total under 236.5 49¢
Why High Bar likes it: Cleveland and Philadelphia combined for 235.4 points per game in 2025, versus 239.8 across their last 10.
High BarUp 27% return this season · 32 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 9-6 on this game · +17% return
- Cleveland Cavaliers to win−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Crowd Echo +1Why 3 models like it
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails- Entry deteriorated from 43c to 44c; the venue fee-adjusted cost is approximately 45.7c.
Crowd Echo- Sharp reference devig: Cavaliers 44.8% from Pinnacle -129/+119; model is 2.7 points higher.
- 2025 regular-season net ratings favor Cleveland 3.97 to Philadelphia -0.17; the model incorporates home court, roster changes, and reported availability.
- Jarrett Allen remains questionable with right patellar tendinopathy; a late scratch would materially reduce Cleveland's interior edge.
Shootaround Whisper- the 9:30 AM injury signal keeps Jarrett Allen questionable but reports he expects to play after morning shots.
- Availability pattern: Allen appeared in 56 of 57 2025-26 regular-season games and started all 56; this supports play over a flat coin-flip assumption.
- Most likely loss: Allen is ruled out or limited by the right patellar tendinopathy, removing the core timing edge.
- Game total under 236.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Novig
2 modelsHigh Bar, Snapp Decision of the DayWhy 2 models like it
High Bar- Cleveland and Philadelphia combined for 235.4 points per game in 2025, versus 239.8 across their last 10.
- Neither team is a top-five pace-and-efficiency combination: Cleveland ranks 15th pace/6th efficiency; Philadelphia 14th/17th.
- Current-season regular samples are thin: Philadelphia has one regular-season game and Cleveland has not logged one yet.
Snapp Decision of the Day- Prior-season team rates imply roughly 226.9 combined points from offense-defense blending.
- Cleveland averaged 116.3 scored and Philadelphia 112.6 allowed; Philadelphia averaged 112.5 scored and Cleveland 112.4 allowed.
- Cleveland has no current regular-season team sample; offseason roster turnover makes last-season rates less reliable.
- Cleveland Cavaliers +3.5−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Novig
Power GapUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Blended net ratings: CLE last-10 2.43 and season 3.97; PHI last-10 2.52 and season -0.17.
- Two-point home-court adjustment makes the projected margin approximately Philadelphia 0, favoring Cleveland plus the points.
- Jarrett Allen is officially questionable with right patellar tendinopathy; his availability could materially move Cleveland's projection.
- Game under 235.5 total+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Projected total around 231.5, 233.5: 2025 pace blended 102.95 with efficiency matchup near 233.5 before October conservatism.
- Cleveland and Philadelphia posted 2025 offensive ratings of 116.3 and 112.5, while both defenses were around 112.5.
- Free-throw rates were modest at 26.9% Cleveland and 27.9% Philadelphia; three-point made rates were 15.9% and 13.6%.
- Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade remain questionable; late availability news could materially alter Cleveland's offense and rebounding.
- Philadelphia 76ers wins+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days - Philadelphia 76ers to win+69%Won
Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US
Tempo BossUp 61% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- PHI transition share 18.5% versus CLE 17.9%; fast-break scoring 16.1 versus 13.3 points.
- PHI's win/loss tempo split is 102.6/103.6 possessions; CLE's is flat at 102.8/102.8.
- The tempo sample is last season's 79-game tracking sample; this season has only one PHI regular-season result and no CLE regular-season result yet.
Show all 12 picks
- Donovan Mitchell three-pointers made under 2.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Novig
Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Philadelphia allowed 35.1% opponent 3PA rate versus a 40.7% league rate, a 0.86 matchup multiplier.
- Mitchell's last 10 games produced 6.48 three-point attempts per 36 minutes across 333.28 minutes.
- Career three-point accuracy is 37.1%; shrinkage toward league average gives approximately 2.03 expected makes at 35 minutes.
- The lineup source calls Mitchell a projected starter, not an official confirmed lineup; a late minutes change would weaken the estimate.
- VJ Edgecombe 10+ points+61%Won
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Shaded OverDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Close-game gate cleared: Philadelphia is -2.5, comfortably inside the under-8-point spread limit.
- Edgecombe reached 10+ in 8 of his last 10 active games, averaging 14.6 points across roughly 34.3 minutes.
- He is priced as an active participant and the live projected Sixers lineup gives him a starter-level role; Cleveland’s 2025 defensive rating was 112.4.
- The last-10 sample crosses teams, preseason/regular-season context, and postseason games; only four active games are current-season data.
- Cleveland Cavaliers +2.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US
Sharp Wallet DogDown 23% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model fair cover probability is 55.5% at Cleveland +2.5, 5.5 points above the 50.0% sharp-book reference.
- Pinnacle posts Philadelphia -2.5 at -105/-105; the exchange contract is the same full-game +2.5 rung.
- Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade are both questionable; final lineups are not knowable two hours before tip.
- Game total under 233.5+138%Won
Taken at 42¢ on Kalshi
Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Split-adjusted prior-season role model totals 232.6, 4.9 points below the sharp 237.5 main line.
- Cleveland road offense shrinks to 115.3 per 100; Philadelphia home offense shrinks to 112.8.
- Shrunk role pace is 102.0 possessions, below the market's implied scoring environment.
- Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade are questionable, creating lineup and interior-efficiency uncertainty.
- Over 236.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
Sharp DriftDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- SHARP REFERENCE Pinnacle total moved from 235.5 (-109 over) to 237.5 (-102 over), a +2.0-point move.
- ProphetX still offers over 236.5 at 51.92¢ (-108), one full point below the sharp reference's current rung.
- Cash likelihood is estimated at 53%, separate from the 51.92¢ contract price; adjacent total quotes are monotonic.
- Jarrett Allen and Dean Wade remain questionable; final inactives and starters are not knowable yet.
- Game total under 237.5+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Philadelphia slightly dictates tempo; its 2026 preseason pace was 112.2 versus Cleveland's 106.8, while Philadelphia's regular-season opener was 106.9.
- Current efficiency cross-read: Philadelphia 99.2 ORTG / 93.5 DRTG; Cleveland 108.6 ORTG / 112.9 DRTG in its preseason sample.
- Blending those small samples with 2025 full-season rates (CLE 116.3/112.4; PHI 112.5/112.6) gives an expected total around 234.5, below the exact 237.5 rung.
- Jarrett Allen is still Questionable at the 3:00 PM PDT official report; web checking found no definitive clearance, so this is capped at LEAN.
Questions
Who won Cavaliers vs. 76ers?
The 76ers won 114–106 on Thursday, Oct 22, 2026.