Get app

Hornets vs. PistonsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalLittle Caesars Arena · Detroit
Hornets
89–97Final
Pistons
Score by period
Team1234T
CHA2229191989
DET2123322197

Top model pick, graded

Won

Detroit Pistons to win 72¢

Why Drift likes it: Power rating 75.0% Detroit: four-game average +5.6 net rating versus Charlotte -7.3, a 12.9-point efficiency gap.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 11-17 on this game · −27% return

  1. Charlotte Hornets spread +7.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSchedule Tax Contrarian, Tired Chalk Dog
    Why 2 models like it
    Schedule Tax Contrarian
    • Detroit played at New York on Oct. 27; Charlotte last played Oct. 26, creating a clear rest disadvantage for Detroit.
    • Detroit's last-game output fell to 97 points and a 100.5 offensive rating in the back-to-back opener.
    • Detroit's season net rating is +5.6 versus Charlotte's -7.0, a 12.6-point strength gap that can overwhelm the rest adjustment.
    Tired Chalk Dog
    • Detroit is on the second night of a back-to-back after losing 111-97 at New York Tuesday.
    • Charlotte last played Monday, so the underdog is not on a back-to-back and had Tuesday rest.
    • Detroit is at home and Cade Cunningham is an expected starter; the fatigue penalty may be modest.
  2. Charlotte Hornets +7.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsDog Rungs, Back-to-Back Debt
    Why 2 models like it
    Dog Rungs
    • Gate cleared: Detroit is laying 7.5, inside the required +6.5 to +13 range.
    • Detroit played at New York on Oct. 27; tonight is the favorite's second night of a back-to-back.
    • Charlotte's lineup remains projected rather than officially confirmed; a late change could remove the edge.
    Back-to-Back Debt
    • Detroit plays its first back-to-back after 10/27 at New York; Charlotte has two days since 10/26.
    • Detroit also enters a third-game-in-four-nights spot, a schedule burden aimed at defense and bench depth.
    • Detroit's home-court and current-season form can overwhelm the fatigue angle; Detroit is 3-1 with a +6.0 recent margin.
  3. Detroit Pistons to winFavorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Power rating 75.0% Detroit: four-game average +5.6 net rating versus Charlotte -7.3, a 12.9-point efficiency gap.
    • Detroit averages 111.2 ORtg / 105.6 DRtg; Charlotte averages 102.1 / 109.2 through four current-season games.
    • Expected, not confirmed, starting fives: Detroit lists Duren and Isaiah Joe out, Charlotte lists Coby White, Grant Williams and others out.
  4. Detroit Pistons spread −7.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 54.0% home cover: Detroit 111.2 ORtg/105.6 DRtg/+5.6 net versus Charlotte 102.1/109.2/-7.3 through four games.
    • Opening/current: Detroit -6 (-103) moved to -7.5 (-103); line traveled toward Detroit but remains below the 54.0% rating.
    • Only four current-season games inform each efficiency rating; early-season metrics are highly volatile.
  5. Detroit Pistons −8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 10-game net-rating blend projects Detroit about 15.5 points better after home court and availability.
    • At 12-point NBA margin standard deviation, that projection makes Detroit -8.5 roughly 70% to cover.
    • Detroit's projected lineup retains Cade Cunningham and Ausar Thompson; Charlotte lists Coby White and Grant Williams out.
    • Early-season 10-game samples are noisy and include unusual blowout margins.
  6. Game total under 212.5 points
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit is on the first back-to-back: 97 points and 100.5 offensive rating Tuesday at New York.
    • Bickerstaff publicly identified uncharacteristic defense and foul trouble, pointing to a corrective, lower-variance game plan.
    • Detroit used 15 players Tuesday and kept its core relatively managed late, supporting a defensive adjustment rather than an all-out pace push.
    • Detroit’s recent games also include totals of 234 and 239; the defensive reset may not stick.
Show all 26 picks
  1. John Collins under 15 points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Collins averages 10.3 points in eight Detroit games and stayed below 15 in six of them.
    • The spread ladder puts Detroit’s 12.5+ win probability at 33.5%, creating a meaningful early-exit path for a favorite starter.
    • Collins is projected to start with Detroit’s normal center Jalen Duren out.
    • Collins exceeded 15 in two of eight Detroit games, including 23 points; his role can produce efficient scoring spikes.
  2. Cade Cunningham under 10 assists
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cade averages 7.0 assists across the last 20 team games; 17 of 20 stayed below 10.
    • This season, all seven games with recorded minutes stayed below 10 assists; the eighth was a DNP.
    • Detroit’s 12.5+ spread rung is 33.5%, supporting some late-game rest risk.
    • Cade averaged 34.7 minutes in five 15+ margin games, so historical blowouts have not clearly truncated him.
  3. Game total over 214.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Price CapUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model mean is approximately 217 points after blending eight-game ratings with 2025-26 ratings and applying Detroit's back-to-back drag.
    • Projected pace is about 102 possessions; Detroit averages 104.4 and Charlotte 100.9 possessions this season.
    • The Kalshi ladder is monotone and liquid at this rung; DraftKings 212.5 and Pinnacle 213 cross-check the nearby total.
    • Detroit's back-to-back could reduce pace or shooting more than the modest adjustment assumes.
  4. Charlotte Hornets over 7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    Old PriorDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-season adjusted net ratings were Detroit +7.99 versus Charlotte +4.84; home-court adjustment projects roughly Detroit -5.5, not -7.5.
    • Both teams are only 4 games into the season, so the short-form market move remains especially noisy.
    • Detroit's current report lists Jalen Duren out, while Charlotte's projected group still includes Brandon Miller, Dennis Schröder and Naz Reid.
    • Lineups are expected rather than confirmed; Ausar Thompson is only probable for Detroit.
  5. Detroit Pistons over 7.5-point margin
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Margin NotchUp 80% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjacent Detroit rungs are monotone and continuous: over 6.5 at 55¢, over 7.5 at 50¢, over 8.5 at 46¢.
    • Pinnacle has Detroit -7.5 at -103 and DraftKings -7.5 at -115, independently centering the game at this threshold.
    • Kalshi spread history is flat over the last hour; no one-point move trigger.
    • Exactly a 7-point Detroit win loses, and the full margin distribution remains wide.
  6. Brandon Miller under 25 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Usage VacuumDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Coby White is ruled out for Charlotte; Miller remains the expected starter with a stable 30-plus-minute role.
    • Miller stayed below 25 points in 7 of his last 9 games without White; that split averaged 18.8 FGA.
    • Detroit's current defense is 105.6 DRtg with a .486 opponent eFG% through four games; Ausar Thompson is probable to defend the wing.
    • The current White-less sample includes Miller's 39- and 34-point games, showing meaningful high-end volatility.
  7. Charlotte Hornets game winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

    Minutes CapDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gate cleared: Charlotte is rested after playing Oct. 26; Detroit is on the second night after Oct. 27.
    • Jalen Duren and Isaiah Joe are confirmed out; they supplied 20.8% of Detroit's early-season points.
    • Duren's four-game with/without margin is +12.5 with him versus -0.5 without; Isaiah Joe is +12.7 versus -14.0.
    • The current-season sample is only four games; both on/off comparisons are heavily confounded.
  8. Charlotte Hornets +5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Refresh at 2:46:55 PM and the targeted 2:47:07 PM PT read preserved the same quote; own cashing likelihood is about 43.5%, separate from price quality.
    • The expected lineups are not officially confirmed; late lineup news could explain or erase the seam.
  9. Game total under 213.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Short BenchUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit is on a back-to-back after playing 10/27; Charlotte is not after playing 10/26: 0 versus 1 rest day, from nba_team_schedule_to_date and nba_game dates.
    • Both teams play slowly: Detroit 101.4 and Charlotte 101.8 season pace through four regular-season games.
    • Detroit's prior-game starters averaged 29.3 minutes on the first B2B night; Duren and Isaiah Joe are out, reducing frontcourt and perimeter depth.
    • Charlotte's prior starters averaged 32.8 minutes on 10/26 and one rest day may preserve its offense.
  10. Detroit Pistons −7.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Crowd EchoUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit: 111.2 ORtg, 105.6 DRtg, +5.625 net rating through four games; Charlotte: 102.1/109.2, -7.025.
    • Matchup projection is 110.2 Detroit points versus 103.9 Charlotte points, plus 3.2 home-court points: 9.5-point fair margin.
    • Starting lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; a late scratch or restriction is unpriced in the model.
  11. Detroit Pistons −6.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Late Scratch LedgerDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, the 2:15 PM PDT NBA report confirmed Jalen Duren out, while Charlotte also lost Coby White, Grant Williams, and Kon Knueppel; Paul Reed has averaged 22.54 minutes and 12.75 points without Duren.
    • Detroit's 2026 regular-season net rating is +5.625 versus Charlotte's -7.025 through four games, a 12.65-point baseline gap before home court.
    • My fair spread is approximately Detroit -9.0: the board moved 0 points after the 2:15 report and still showed -7.5, leaving roughly 1.5-2 points unabsorbed.
    • Duren's on/off sample is only 2 games with him and 4 without; Detroit is 3-1 without him, so his absence may be less damaging than projected.
  12. Sion James under 11.5 points + rebounds + assists
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of 8 games stayed under 11.5 PRA; his last four starts all finished at 10 or below.
    • Recent role is stable: four straight starts and 23.7, 28.7 minutes in those games.
    • Recent PRA results were 10, 10, 10, and 6, while his 11.5 Fliff line implies only 55.6%.
    • Projected lineup is expected, not confirmed; a late rotation change could alter James's minutes.
  13. Charlotte Hornets over 212.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Adjusted season offense, defense, and 101.7 average pace imply roughly 217.6 points before availability adjustments.
    • Last four combined totals average 217.5 points: Detroit 220.0, Charlotte 215.0.
    • Conservative injury-adjusted BETALAB estimate is 215.5 total points, above the 212.5 strike.
    • Charlotte has Coby White, Grant Williams, and Kon Knueppel out; replacement offense is uncertain.
  14. Charlotte Hornets spread +6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BreakTheBank is holding the exact global Polymarket spread: Pistons -6.5 market, Hornets outcome; latest buys were at 3:03 and 3:08 PM PDT.
    • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; Charlotte lists 10 out and Detroit lists Jalen Duren out, with Ausar Thompson probable.
  15. Game total over 206.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raw Kalshi probability was 0.42, a fraction, not 42; the contract re-read grades this YES position at 36¢.
    • Season pace is 101.6 combined possessions; efficiency blend projects 217.4 points before the live adjustment: DET 111.2 ORtg vs CHA 109.1 DRtg, CHA 102.1 ORtg vs DET 105.6 DRtg.
    • Both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0, so there is no claimed pace mismatch; the projection edge is efficiency-led, with neither team needing schedule or back-to-back reasoning.
    • The opening pace signal is neutral: recent Detroit possessions were 96.6 and 100.0, while Charlotte had 96.5 and 105.0 in its latest games.
  16. Game total over 212.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 101.6 possessions × 2.14 points per possession implies 217.4 total, about 4.9 above the 212.5 rung.
    • Tempo is essentially neutral, not a mismatch: Charlotte 101.8 and Detroit 101.4 pace; both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0.
    • Efficiency favors scoring: Detroit 111.2 ORtg vs Charlotte 109.1 DRtg; Charlotte 102.1 ORtg vs Detroit 105.6 DRtg.
    • Expected lineups are not confirmed; Ausar Thompson is only probable in the warehouse, and the web report is not fully consistent on his identity/status.
  17. Charlotte Hornets spread +8.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Points GettingUp 30% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Cashing likelihood apart from price quality: 56%; this is a low-confidence lean, not a projection claim.
    • Most likely loss: Detroit's Cade-led offense overcomes the back-to-back and wins by 9+, with Charlotte's missing Coby White/Grant Williams/Knueppel reducing depth.
  18. Cade Cunningham under 23.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19.2 points per game across six completed 2026 appearances; he has scored 14, 18, 22, 16, 26, and 19.
    • Under 23.5 in three of his last four games, including 19 points last night against New York.
    • FanDuel offers -104, materially below the estimated 58% win probability implied by this usage and recent scoring profile.
    • Charlotte's lineup is only expected, and Coby White is out; perimeter defense or late personnel changes could improve Cade's scoring environment.
  19. Charlotte Hornets to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 31¢ on Polymarket US

    Rest LedgerDown 33% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Detroit played in New York on Oct 27 and travels home for this second-night game; Charlotte last played Oct 26 and did not play the night before.
    • Model: 34.5% Charlotte win probability versus Pinnacle's current 32.2% devigged reference; the small fatigue adjustment favors Charlotte.
    • This is only a modest adjustment to the sharp reference; one extra rest day is not a major schedule asymmetry, and neither team meets a three-in-four-versus-fresh setup.
  20. Game total over 212.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • prior-season/current-season blend projects roughly 217 total points, 4.5 above this rung.
    • Blended pace is about 101.9 possessions; Detroit's 112.8 blended offense meets Charlotte's 109.6 blended defense.
    • Pinnacle's main total is 214.5, with over -104; this rung preserves two points at -112.
    • Only four current regular-season games per team; the prior-season blend is required and caps this at a lean.

Questions

Who won Hornets vs. Pistons?

The Pistons won 97–89 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.