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Nuggets vs. PelicansFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSmoothie King Center · New Orleans
Nuggets
104–91Final
Pelicans
Score by period
Team1234T
DEN37202225104
NOP1827281891

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 239.5 points 48¢

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 12-15 on this game · −14% return

  1. New Orleans Pelicans +4.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    3 modelsCoaches Corner, Home Dog Hold +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Denver's projected starting five posted a -45.1 net rating across 22.7 early-season minutes.
    • Denver is on one rest day after a 20-point loss, while New Orleans has three days to install a rematch adjustment.
    • Denver won the recent meeting 141-135 and Jokic created a major interior matchup problem.
    Home Dog Hold
    • Blended net-rating estimate gives New Orleans roughly a 1-point home margin after 2.25 points of home court.
    • New Orleans has two rest days versus Denver's one; the home side has no top-two player ruled out.
    • The estimate blends only three current-season games with last season, so team-strength uncertainty is substantial.
    Sharp Wallet Dog
    • Model: 54.5% cover probability versus 50.5% Pinnacle devig, a 4.0-point gap.
    • Regular-season net ratings: New Orleans -2.9 versus Denver -9.4 through three games.
    • Projected lineups are not confirmed; late changes involving Jokic, Murray, Zion or Murphy materially alter the estimate.
  2. Game total under 240.53 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    3 modelsFirst Month, Bench Boss +1
    Why 3 models like it
    First Month
    • Last-season pace averaged 102.2 Denver possessions and 103.7 New Orleans possessions; matchup-adjusted scoring projects about 238.5.
    • New Orleans changed coaches and rotation, while Denver's additions were mostly low-minute roles; the sustainable baseline remains near last season's tempo.
    • New Orleans has averaged 109.1 possessions through three games, and first-year coach J. Mosley could make that pace durable.
    Bench Boss
    • Denver's 3-game pace is 101.7 possessions; its last two were 94.7 and 96.1 under coach David Adelman's rotation.
    • Denver's recent rotation stayed compact: five starters played 24+ minutes on 10/26, while four reserves played 16.6 minutes or fewer.
    • Most likely loss: New Orleans averaged 109.1 possessions and the teams combined for 276 points in their 10/24 meeting.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • First-three-game offense/defense blend projects roughly 230.7 combined points.
    • Denver's current offensive rating is 110.3; New Orleans is 114.2, below a 240.5 expectation at this pace.
    • Combined pace is high: Denver 101.7 and New Orleans 109.1 possessions per game.
  3. New Orleans Pelicans spread +4.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    2 modelsSchedule Tax Contrarian, Short Bench
    Why 2 models like it
    Schedule Tax Contrarian
    • Rest favors New Orleans: four days since its last game versus Denver’s two; neither side is on a back-to-back.
    • Current-season net rating is New Orleans -2.9 versus Denver -9.4, with the Pelicans also ahead in eFG rate (.532 to .516).
    • FanDuel opened New Orleans +5.5 and moved to +4.5, so some of the contrarian cushion has already been removed.
    Short Bench
    • Schedule_to_date: Denver last played 10/26, one rest day before tonight and no current back-to-back; New Orleans last played 10/24, three rest days and no current back-to-back.
    • Pace: New Orleans 109.1 season/L10 versus Denver 101.7; the rested home side has the deeper recent rotation to push its preferred tempo.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups: Denver lists multiple outs and New Orleans lists Julian Reese probable; a late availability change can erase the rotation edge.
  4. Game total under 239.5 points
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  5. New Orleans Pelicans spread +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model projects New Orleans around 9 points better after rating differential and 2.0-point home court.
    • 83% fair cover probability at +2.5 using a 12-point NBA margin standard deviation.
    • Both sides are quoted and the spread ladder is monotone through the traded rungs.
    • Net ratings are based on only three regular-season games, so the model input is extremely thin.
  6. Denver Nuggets game winner
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 0.5-to-1.5 step is materially below the 2.5, 3¢ middle-rung benchmark.
    • Game-winner books are tight: Denver 61, 62¢ and New Orleans 38, 39¢; no dead quote.
    • Expected lineups are not confirmed; both teams have several listed outs and rotation uncertainty.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Denver Nuggets to win
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Novig

    Old PriorDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Denver's 2025-26 net rating was +5.0 versus New Orleans at -4.5.
    • Denver's moneyline shortened from -210 to -184 at FanDuel, signaling a short-form move toward New Orleans.
    • Denver's first three games include a -20 loss to Golden State; regression is appropriate in this three-game sample.
    • Denver's projected lineup is not confirmed; Cameron Johnson is doubtful and six Nuggets are listed out.
  2. Under 240.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Cheap SideUp 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model probability is 64% under: pace/efficiency blend projects roughly 233 total points.
    • Pinnacle's 241 total devigs to 50.2% under from -107/-105; the reference agrees with the under direction.
    • Denver-New Orleans just produced 276 points at 114.2/116.2 possessions; another fast, efficient rematch breaks the under.
  3. Nikola Jokic under 12.5 total rebounds
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 9.14 rebounds/36 over 3 regular-season games; 32, 39 supported minutes implies roughly 8.1, 9.9 rebounds.
    • Current regular-season logs: 7, 15, 7 rebounds in 114.2 minutes; two of three stayed below 12.5.
    • FanDuel quoted 12.5 at -104 under versus -122 over; quote captured at 4:10pm PT, with overtime counting.
    • Lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; DeAndre Jordan starts projected and Julian Reese is probable, changing competition.
  4. New Orleans Pelicans spread +2
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Using NBA margin SD around 12, that win probability implies roughly 45.0% for New Orleans +2; the spread quote implies only 41.3%.
    • The approximately 3.7-point probability gap survives the 3:58 PM refresh; +1.5, +2, and +2.5 form a monotone local cover curve.
    • All evidence is ProphetX self-reference; sportsbook and other exchanges are reference only, not independent confirmation.
  5. Game total under 237.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 233.0 versus sharp main lines of 240.5, 241.5; the 8.0+ point gap clears the 3-point gate.
    • Denver’s 25-game road sample is 116.0 offensive rating and 103.9 pace; half-shrink gives 113.9 and 102.7.
    • New Orleans’ 25-game home sample is 112.7 offensive rating and 103.8 pace; half-shrink gives 113.1 and 102.7.
    • Projected lineups are not officially confirmed; no top-two player is currently listed uncertain, but a late scratch would materially move the total.
  6. Denver Nuggets spread −4.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Crowd EchoUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Expected Denver starters include Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon; New Orleans has DeAndre Jordan starting.
    • Both starting lineups remain expected, not confirmed, with roughly one hour to tip.
  7. New Orleans Pelicans +5 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Rest Edge PairsDown 67% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New Orleans has two extra off-days (last game Oct 24; Denver last played Oct 26) before hosting.
    • 1,871 historical rest-advantage games averaged a +2.50 margin for teams with at least two extra rest days.
    • Early net rating favors New Orleans: -2.9 versus Denver -9.4 across three games; expected starters remain intact.
    • The current ratings are only three games old, so the projection is highly sample-sensitive.
  8. Game total over 239.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Sharp DriftDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • SHARP REFERENCE total opened 238.5 and is now 241, a +2.5-point move.
    • The most likely loss is ordinary shooting or pace falling short of 240 points.
  9. Jamal Murray under 24.5 points
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 20.88 points per 36 and 24.4% usage through three current-season games sit below this threshold.
    • Under in 4 of his last 5 played games; that span averages 20.4 points.
    • He has a stable high-minute starting role, so the under is based on scoring efficiency rather than playing-time fragility.
    • New Orleans owns a poor 117.1 defensive rating and has allowed 128.0 points per game this season.
  10. Game total under 239.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    High BarUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Combined season and last-10 scoring average is 237.7 points: Denver 113.0, New Orleans 124.7.
    • New Orleans ranks third in pace but seventh in offensive efficiency; Denver ranks 26th in pace and 12th in efficiency.
    • Only three regular-season games inform the current-season averages, creating substantial early-season variance.
  11. Zion Williamson over 18.5 points
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on DraftKings

    Next Man PricedUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 eligible 2025-26 games without Missi: 25.0 points and 16.86 FGA versus 20.96 and 12.62 in 52 with.
    • Current first three games: Williamson averages 20.7 points and 13.0 FGA; the offered line is 18.5.
    • Denver has allowed a 119.7 defensive rating and .556 opponent eFG across three games.
    • Only one current-season game without Missi: Williamson scored 17 points on 11 FGA.
  12. Game total over 235.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: approximately 239 points versus the ladder’s roughly 235-point 50% crossing; disagreement is about four points.
    • New Orleans dictates tempo: 109.1 season pace versus Denver’s 101.7; live possessions are 30.8 versus 29.6.
    • Efficiency: Denver 110.3 ORTG/119.7 DRTG; New Orleans 114.2/117.1, supporting upward regression from 64 early points.
    • Only three regular-season games inform each team’s season and L10 metrics; early-season estimates are noisy.
  13. Game total over 241.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: expected total is approximately 243 points versus the 241.5-point Kalshi rung.
    • New Orleans dictates tempo: 109.1 season and L3 pace versus Denver's 101.7; the recent gap is 7.4 possessions.
    • Efficiency read: Denver offense 110.3 versus New Orleans defense 117.1; New Orleans offense 114.2 versus Denver defense 119.7.
    • Only three regular-season games inform both pace and efficiency estimates; Denver's recent possessions include 94.7 and 96.1.
  14. Over 240.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent projection is 241.0, within 0.5 points of the 240.5 venue number and on the over side.
    • Pinnacle is 241, within 0.5 point of ProphetX's 240.5.
    • The total has held at 240.5 while the over quote stayed near 51% across the afternoon history read.
    • Expected lineups are not confirmed in starting-five order; a late scratch or rotation change could reduce scoring.
  15. over 239.5 game total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended pace projects about 104 possessions and matchup scoring about 243.1 points, 3.6 above 239.5.
    • Denver's prior-season last-10 offense was 125.9 rating; New Orleans' current pace is 109.1 through three games.
    • Pinnacle is 241 at -105/-107, an off-rung reference; ProphetX's nearby total ladder is monotone.
    • Most likely loss: Denver's early-season half-court offense and recent 94.7/96.1 possession games keep the total below 240.
  16. Dejounte Murray over 17.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +100 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Murray scored 16, 23, and 22 points in his three 2026 games; he cleared 17.5 twice.
    • His current-season average is 20.3 points, 2.8 above this line.
    • FanDuel moved the exact standard prop to +100, implying 50%; my estimate is 55%.
    • Three-game sample is thin and early-season roles can change quickly.

Questions

Who won Nuggets vs. Pelicans?

The Nuggets won 104–91 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

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