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Warriors vs. TimberwolvesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalTarget Center · Minneapolis
Warriors
119–114Final
Timberwolves
Score by period
Team1234T
GSW30342926119
MIN23253333114

Top model pick, graded

Won

Golden State Warriors +4.5 53¢

Why Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails likes it: Polymarket US offers the identical full-game Warriors +4.5 contract at a current 53¢ buyer cost.

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 371 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 15-15 on this game · +7% return

  1. Game total under 227.54 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    4 modelsMissing Star Total, Stiff Line Pair +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Missing Star Total
    • Anthony Edwards was confirmed out at 3:15 PM PDT; his 33.25 PPG and 3.5 APG imply roughly 40.3 points of direct creation.
    • Sharp total is 227.5, the same rung as the contract; it has risen 3.5 points from Pinnacle's 224 opener, not fallen 2+.
    • Expected lineups remain projections observed at 3:05 AM, not official confirmations.
    Stiff Line Pair
    • ProphetX held 227.5 from its opening quote to the 3:20 PM board: a 0-point drop, inside the less-than-2-point gate.
    • Projection: 224.0 total, 3.5 points below the rung; Minnesota pace is 106.8 and Golden State pace is 101.0.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota redistributes Edwards' high-usage possessions efficiently while Golden State's 117.2 PPG offense drives the game above 227.5.
    Short Bench
    • Golden State's 101.0 season/L4 pace is a downward tempo input against Minnesota's 106.8; the model gives the slower Warriors some control of possessions.
    • GSW efficiency is 116.3 offensive / 119.4 defensive rating and MIN is 114.3 / 98.0 through four games; pace and rotation adjustment lowers the efficiency anchor to 225.5.
    • Both teams are off a 10/26 game for tonight's 10/28 tip, so current rest is effectively two calendar days and neither is on a current back-to-back; there is no rest edge.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Minnesota's season defense is 98.0 points allowed per 100 possessions through four games.
    • Projected pace is roughly 104 possessions, while the matchup combines GSW's 119.5 defensive rating with MIN's 114.3 offense.
    • Both teams' recent four-game combined scoring averages are elevated; GSW has scored 134 and 122 in its last two.
  2. Minnesota Timberwolves to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, NFL Sharp Edge
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Model 64.0% Minnesota win: four-game ratings are +16.27 net/114.3 ORtg/98.0 DRtg versus Golden State -3.18/116.3/119.4.
    • Minnesota is 3-1 with a +17.0 recent margin; Golden State is 1-3 with a -3.5 recent margin.
    • Only four current regular-season games per team make the efficiency ratings highly noisy.
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Minnesota owns a +16.3 net rating through four games versus Golden State at -3.2.
    • Minnesota's 98.0 defensive rating is 21.5 points better than Golden State's 119.5.
    • Both teams are only four games into the regular season, so the efficiency sample is thin.
  3. Game total over 227.5 points2 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsPrice Cap, Shot Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    Price Cap
    • Projected total 232.1 points from blended current/2025 offensive and defensive ratings.
    • Blended game pace is 103.4 possessions; adjusted scores are approximately Minnesota 119.0 and Golden State 113.1.
    • Anthony Edwards, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody, and Kristaps Porzingis are officially out; reduced shot creation can pull the total down.
    Shot Clock
    • Minnesota is the tempo dictator: 106.8 season pace versus Golden State's 101.0; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0, so the mismatch, not a recent burst, is the signal.
    • Efficiency read: Golden State 116.3 ORTG versus Minnesota 98.0 DRTG implies about 107.2 points/100; Minnesota 114.3 ORTG versus Golden State 119.4 DRTG implies about 116.9.
    • Anthony Edwards is out after playing 41.2 minutes and scoring 47 on Oct. 26; his replacement could reduce Minnesota's efficiency more than the haircut assumes.
  4. Golden State Warriors spread +3.52 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsLate Scratch Ledger, Short Bench
    Why 2 models like it
    Late Scratch Ledger
    • Minnesota on/off: +64 with Edwards versus +4 without across 197 minutes, a raw +60 differential.
    • Without Edwards, Bones Hyland adds 11.0 minutes and 19.6 PPG; Ayo Dosunmu and Jonathan Kuminga remain projected starters.
    • Minnesota owns a +15.9 current net rating versus Golden State's -3.5 through four regular-season games.
    Short Bench
    • Pace favors the dog staying inside the number: GSW is 101.0 season/L10 pace versus Minnesota 106.8, giving the slower visitor a tempo-control path.
    • Rotation read: GSW used 10 players over 10 minutes on 10/26 versus Minnesota’s 9; GSW’s five starters averaged 28.9 minutes versus Minnesota’s 36.0, and Anthony Edwards is confirmed out.
    • There is no current rest differential; both teams have one intervening day, so the schedule edge is lighter than a true back-to-back spot.
  5. Golden State Warriors +4.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Polymarket US offers the identical full-game Warriors +4.5 contract at a current 53¢ buyer cost.
    • Both lineups remain expected, with seven listed outs for each side and late official changes still possible.
  6. Minnesota Timberwolves −9.5Long shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 33¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • raw net-rating differential is +19.45 points for Minnesota (16.27 vs -3.17), before adjustments.
    • Home court adds 2.0 points; after a conservative rest/injury adjustment, projected margin is still approximately Minnesota +15.
    • The only listed questionable is Golden State's Yaxel Lendeborg; Minnesota has no questionable player, so the two-team top-three-questionable gate does not trigger.
    • Both season and last-10 ratings are based on only four games, making the +15 projection unusually sample-sensitive.
Show all 24 picks
  1. Golden State Warriors wins by over 2.5 points
    +186%Won

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The over-2.5 to over-4.5 ladder move is 6¢ across two points, consistent with the expected 2.5, 3¢ per point step.
    • This is an internal-quote edge rather than an independent game model; the apparent seam may close or reflect stale order-book information.
  2. Game total under 225.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Novig

    First MonthUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-season totals profiles: Minnesota 232.6, Golden State 229.8, but roster-adjusted projection is approximately 224.
    • Last-season pace was 103.7 for Minnesota and 102.3 for Golden State; projected starters point to a slower Warriors possession environment.
    • Golden State is without Jimmy Butler III, Kristaps Porzingis and Moses Moody; Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo.
    • Both lineups are expected rather than confirmed; Yaxel Lendeborg is questionable for Golden State.
  3. Brandin Podziemski over 15.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    Vacuum PointsUp 64% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Podziemski’s Butler-off sample: +3.10 FGA, +3.24 PPG and +4.05 percentage points usage across 49 games.
    • Current-season baseline is 18.0 points in 32.8 minutes; expected starter role supports roughly 33 minutes.
    • 15.5 is below my estimated scoring median near 19 points and is not the ladder’s longest over rung.
    • Only two current-season games establish Podziemski’s present scoring baseline; last season’s 17.49 points per 36 is the broader anchor.
  4. Game total over 228
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Pace PairUp 3% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • matchup calculation 232.5 points, 4.5 above the 228 rung.
    • Pace: MIN 106.8 and GSW 101.0 possessions; the blended estimate is 103.9.
    • Mechanism: Minnesota's faster transition profile meets Golden State's 119.4 defensive rating.
    • Minnesota's 98.0 defensive rating can force a half-court game and suppress Golden State.
  5. Minnesota Timberwolves spread −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    Home FortUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jimmy Butler is officially Out for Golden State; Minnesota is home and enters 3-1 over its last four.
    • Anthony Edwards is also officially Out for Minnesota, offsetting much of the visitor-injury edge.
  6. Under 228.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Pace ClashDown 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 101.0 projected possessions: Warriors' 4.1-possession slow deviation controls tempo 60/40 over Minnesota's 2.7-possession fast deviation.
    • Expected starters are not confirmed; Yaxel Lendeborg remains questionable and a late scratch can change pace or spacing.
  7. Game total over 227.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    Tip TotalDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • GSW expected five logged 105.1 possessions per 48; MIN expected five logged 131.5, both above team season pace.
    • Expected starters include Curry, LaMelo Ball and Gobert; the MIN five's pace is 24.7 possessions above its 106.8 team rate.
    • Early-season team scoring averages are 117.2 GSW and 122.0 MIN, supporting an over lean once the faster projected groups are used.
    • Both starting groups are expected rather than officially confirmed; a late change would weaken the lineup-pace thesis.
  8. Golden State Warriors moneyline (gate: Anthony Edwards out; spread: Minnesota −4.0)
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Rested Road DogDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anthony Edwards, Minnesota's top scorer at 33.25 points per game, is officially out; the top-two home-player gate is met.
    • Current net ratings: Minnesota +16.28 versus Golden State -3.17 through four games; fair margin Minnesota -2.5 versus the -4.0 spread.
    • Both teams have only four current-season games; the net-rating gap is highly noisy.
  9. Rudy Gobert over 11.5 total rebounds
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −122 on FanDuel

    NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 129.7 regular-season minutes at 15.82 rebounds/36 produces a transparent 14.25-rebound baseline at his 32.4-minute average.
    • He recorded 20, 13, 9 and 15 rebounds from October 21-26; three of four cleared 11.5.
    • Golden State averaged 101.0 possessions and 48.0 missed field goals across its last four regular games, an observed opportunity context.
    • The lineup remains expected rather than confirmed 55 minutes before tip; a late scratch or restriction would invalidate the baseline.
  10. Minnesota Timberwolves −4.5 (Jimmy Butler out)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Home Floor ChalkDown 37% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair margin +5.5: +19.5 raw net-rating gap, home court, then heavy four-game-sample regression and Butler/Edwards injury offsets.
    • Jimmy Butler is confirmed out for visiting Golden State, satisfying the required injury edge gate; both teams last played October 26.
    • Derived sharp reference is about 49% at -4.5 from Pinnacle -4.0 (-105 both ways); model edge is roughly 4 points.
    • Only four regular-season games feed the current ratings, so the margin estimate has substantial early-season variance.
  11. Golden State Warriors to win
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on Polymarket US

    Crowd EchoUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 43.0% GSW win probability from current team ratings plus verified injury adjustments.
    • GSW current four-game net rating is -3.2, but Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo; expected lineups keep Curry active.
    • Minnesota is 3-1 with a +17.0 early-season scoring margin; the four-game team sample is extremely thin.
  12. Game total over 225.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Sharp DriftDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The sharp total briefly reached 229.0 before reversing 1.5; upward direction remains intact.
    • No post-open injury change explains the rise: Edwards’ report preceded the sharp open; Lendeborg was already questionable.
    • The sharp move reversed 1.5 points from its peak and could continue selling back.
  13. Jaden McDaniels over 16.5 points
    +85%Won

    Taken at −118 on FanDuel

    Next Man PricedUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 15 Ant-out games: McDaniels averaged 18.8 points, 33.31 minutes and 13.8 FGA.
    • Compared with 58 Ant-active games: 13.83 points, 31.32 minutes and 10.38 FGA.
    • Minnesota owns a 114.3 offensive rating; Golden State’s current defensive rating is 119.5.
    • Only four current-season games exist; new teammates LaMelo Ball and Jonathan Kuminga weaken the prior comparison.
  14. Golden State Warriors spread +4
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Steam CoolerUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anthony Edwards was downgraded to OUT on Oct. 28; the market moved Minnesota from roughly -5.5/-6.5 to -3.5/-4.
    • My replacement-adjusted estimate is a 1.25-point Edwards swing, about 1.75 points smaller than the roughly 3-point move.
    • LaMelo Ball, Ayo Dosunmu and Jonathan Kuminga provide more creation/depth than the move assumes; both teams have two rest days.
    • Yaxel Lendeborg remains questionable for Golden State, so a late scratch could erase the replacement edge; starters are still projected, not confirmed.
  15. Golden State Warriors moneyline +152
    +150%Won

    Taken at 40¢ on ProphetX

    Shootaround WhisperUp 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Golden State's prior-season questionable reports produced 84 plays in 88 cases (95.5%); Lendeborg has started all four games.
    • Lendeborg went through Wednesday shootaround and remains an expected starter, favoring availability over a flat 50/50 assumption.
    • The official report still says Questionable for left-foot inflammation; a late scratch is the clearest loss path.
  16. Golden State Warriors +3.5
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX moneyline -156/+152 normalizes to about 60.5% Minnesota; with NBA margin SD around 12, that centers the margin near +3.2.
    • Fresh ProphetX spread quotes were monotone around the trade: Minnesota -4 (-102), Minnesota -3.5 (-110), with both sides at the -3.5 rung live.
    • The expected, not confirmed, lineup still lists Gui Santos questionable; late lineup news could explain or erase the seam.
  17. Golden State Warriors @ Minnesota Timberwolves game total under 230.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PROJECTION; blended pace projects roughly 103, 104 possessions, below a high-tempo game script.
    • Blended offensive/defensive efficiencies produce approximately 227.2 total points, 3.3 below 230.5.
    • Pinnacle's main total is 227.5, supporting a lower central projection; this is a ladder extension.
    • Only four current-season games per team; prior-season blending is required and caps this at LEAN.
  18. Game under 227.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season efficiency blend projects roughly 224 total points before matchup-specific adjustments.
    • Minnesota owns a 98.0 defensive rating through four games, while Golden State has scored only 117.3 points per game.
    • DraftKings offers -110 at 227.5, above my 54% under estimate versus a 52.4% break-even price.
    • Recent combined scoring form is volatile: the teams' latest four-game totals average about 232.5.

Questions

Who won Warriors vs. Timberwolves?

The Warriors won 119-114 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

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