Knicks vs. BullsFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalUnited Center · Chicago
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYK | 34 | 22 | 34 | 43 | 133 |
| CHI | 33 | 29 | 34 | 31 | 127 |
Top model pick, graded
WonChicago Bulls +6.5 47¢
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 10-22 on this game · −39% return
- Chicago Bulls +6.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US
4 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Third in Four +2Why 4 models like it
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails- Both projected lineups are expected rather than confirmed; Chicago lists Claxton, Williams and Awaka out.
Third in Four- Knicks play Oct. 25, 27 and 28, their third game in four nights, with road travel between Orlando, Detroit and Chicago; Bulls last played Oct. 26.
- Spread line held at Chicago +7 at Pinnacle from opening to current; no 2-point move toward Chicago. Polymarket US also showed Chicago +6.5 at 49¢.
- Chicago is 1-3 and was beaten by 35 in its last game; the Knicks have a stronger roster and can win comfortably.
Back-to-Back Debt- own cashing likelihood is 51% before price; New York is on a back-to-back and third game in four nights.
- Chicago had a rest day after 10/26; New York played 10/25 and 10/27, creating the targeted schedule-fatigue mismatch.
- Chicago's expected starting center Nic Claxton is out, and Patrick Williams remains questionable; the frontcourt uncertainty can erase the rest advantage.
Look-Ahead Pairs- Knicks played Oct. 27 and face a back-to-back; Chicago last played Oct. 26 and has the rest edge.
- Pinnacle is Bulls +7 at -109; ProphetX's main spread stayed +7.5 since opening, while its Bulls price drifted from -130 to -111, not toward our side.
- Chicago's Patrick Williams is questionable; expected lineups are not confirmed, and injury news is still early.
- Game total under 232.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Novig
3 modelsHigh Bar, Bench Boss +1Why 3 models like it
High Bar- Posted total is 232.5, above the 226.0 gate; sharp main is 231.5.
- Chicago ranks first in pace but 30th in offensive rating; New York ranks 24th in pace and 28th in offensive rating.
- Only four games exist in the early-season sample, so 214.8 PPG is highly unstable.
Bench Boss- Knicks’ last two games averaged 103.5 possessions; Chicago is in a 3-in-4 stretch.
- Chicago’s last two offensive ratings were 91.1 and 109.9; New York’s season offensive rating is 102.1.
- Most likely loss: Chicago’s 117.3 season defensive rating creates efficient transition scoring and a shootout.
Schedule Tax Contrarian- Scheduled and unstarted at 3:59pm PDT; DraftKings posted 232.5 at -110.
- Regular-season form implies roughly 225 points: Knicks 104.0 scored/105.3 allowed, Bulls 110.8/129.5 through four games.
- Chicago’s last four totals were 233, 244, 257, and 227; its recent pace can overwhelm the under.
- Game total under 232.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi
3 modelsOpener Ladder, Price Cap +1Why 3 models like it
Opener Ladder- 4-game averages imply roughly 106 possessions, slower than a typical high-tempo matchup.
- Efficiency blend projects about 225 points before regression: NYK 102.1 ORtg, CHI 117.3 DRtg; CHI 100.2 ORtg, NYK 103.1 DRtg.
- Only four games per team inform the efficiency and pace inputs; the 229-point estimate is uncertain.
Price Cap- Blended current/2025 ratings and pace center the distribution near 225 total points.
- Knicks are on consecutive dates; Chicago has one day off, a modest late-game efficiency drag.
- Chicago's early-season offense has produced 227-257 totals, so its pace can overwhelm the model.
Shot Clock- Bulls dictate tempo: 110.4 season/L10 pace versus New York's 102.2; pace_l10_delta is 0.0 for both, so the gap is a style mismatch, not a schedule angle.
- Efficiency projection: Knicks offense 102.1 versus Chicago defense 117.3, Bulls offense 100.2 versus New York defense 103.1; blended total efficiency is about 211.4 per 100.
- The 7.8-point projection gap exceeds the desk's normal disagreement band; unresolved Patrick Williams/Tobe Awaka availability makes the projection suspect and caps this at LEAN.
- Chicago Bulls spread +7.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US
3 modelsTired Chalk Dog, Short Bench +1Why 3 models like it
Tired Chalk Dog- Knicks are on the second night of a back-to-back after beating Detroit 111-97 on 10/27; Chicago last played 10/26.
- Chicago's Nic Claxton is officially out, while Patrick Williams and Tobe Awaka remain questionable; the interior-loss impact is uncertain.
Short Bench- Both teams are on a back-to-back with 0 rest days; the schedule gate is resolved from nba_team_schedule_to_date.
- Knicks’ prior starters averaged 32.7 minutes; Bulls’ five averaged 24.4, with Bulls using six players at 15+ minutes versus Knicks’ eight.
- Both teams share the B2B, so there is no rest differential; New York may still control the slower 102.2 pace.
Points Getting- Edge class: PROJECTION, New York played Detroit yesterday, making tonight a confirmed second-night back-to-back for the large favorite.
- Expected Knicks core remains listed: Brunson, Towns, Bridges, Hart and Anunoby; Chicago has expected ball-handler Josh Giddey.
- Most likely loss: New York's Brunson-led offense creates a late separation despite the back-to-back.
- Chicago Bulls to win−100%Lost
Taken at 28¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsShort Bench, Second UnitWhy 2 models like it
Short Bench- Knicks are on a back-to-back after 10/27; Bulls last played 10/26 and have one intervening rest day, from nba_team_schedule_to_date and nba_game dates.
- The previous-game starting five averaged 32.74 Knicks minutes versus 24.38 Bulls minutes; Bulls also used 12 players over 10 minutes versus nine for New York.
- New York's stronger -1.05 versus Chicago's -17.07 season net rating may overwhelm the rest and rotation edge.
Second Unit- Knicks current B2B: nba_game.date 2026-10-27; 0 rest days. Bulls last played 2026-10-26: 1 rest day, no B2B.
- Rotation proxy from last games: Bulls used 13 players for 8+ minutes; Knicks used 9; Bulls top-five average 24.38 minutes versus 32.98.
- Knicks’ net rating is -1.05 versus Chicago’s -17.07 through four games; talent and efficiency can overwhelm fatigue.
- New York Knicks −7.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Novig
2 modelsPower Gap, Old PriorWhy 2 models like it
Power Gap- Projected margin is NYK -13.0 after the 16.02 net-rating gap, 2.0-point home-court adjustment, and rest/availability adjustments.
- Current form has New York at -1.05 net rating versus Chicago at -17.07 through four regular-season games.
- The rating sample is only four regular-season games, so the model estimate is unusually sensitive to early variance.
Old Prior- Only four current-season games: Chicago is -17.1 net per game versus New York at -1.1, a noisy form gap to regress.
- Last-season full-season ratings were Knicks +6.4 and Bulls -5.0; the blended rating makes New York roughly a 10-point road favorite.
- Both starting lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; Patrick Williams is questionable for Chicago.
Show all 21 picks
- Knicks–Bulls under 232.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on DraftKings
Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Efficiency blend projects roughly 211 points: Knicks 102.1 ORtg, Bulls 100.3 ORtg, with both defenses below 118.
- New York games average 208.8 total points through four; its 103.1 defensive rating is the best unit in this matchup.
- Market steam confirms the under: DraftKings moved 234.5 to 232.5 and Pinnacle 235 to 231.5.
- Chicago’s first four totals were 233, 244, 257, and 227; its weak 117.3 defense can create an over if New York shoots efficiently.
- Under total 232−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model 54.5% under: current regular-season efficiency/pace blend projects approximately 224.7 points versus the 232 rung.
- New York is averaging 102.1 offensive rating and Chicago 100.3 through four regular-season games, suppressing the scoring baseline.
- Both starting groups are expected rather than confirmed; Patrick Williams is questionable and late rotation news can change pace or efficiency.
- New York Knicks to win+37%Won
Taken at −270 on FanDuel
Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Mike Brown brings a 530-352 career record against Tiago Splitter’s 17-17 head-coaching start.
- Brown’s Knicks are 29th in pace but emphasize transition-defense discipline and keeping the ball out of the paint.
- New York’s expected five is intact while Chicago’s expected lineup loses Claxton and Patrick Williams, reducing two-way matchup flexibility.
- New York is on the second night of a back-to-back, creating fatigue and possible late rotation management.
- Game total under 231−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Pace PairDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- broader totals fell from 234.5, 235 to 231.5, 232.5; ProphetX still offers 231.
- Projection: 106.3 blended possessions and current rating cross-blend imply roughly 224.7 points, 6.3 below 231.
- Rest: New York played October 27; Chicago last played October 26, favoring a slower Knicks offensive pace.
- Only four regular-season games supply the current-season/L10 sample; ratings and pace are noisy.
- Game total under 230.5−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on Novig
Cheap SideUp 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Own L10 model projects 228.3 points from 103.2 combined pace and blended scoring rates, making under fair at 55.5%.
- Knicks L10 pace is 97.6 and Bulls L10 defensive allowance is 1.157 PPP; neither side is on a back-to-back tonight.
- Bulls games average 238.4 total points over the L10, materially above this projection.
- Chicago Bulls +7.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Dog RungsDown 27% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- New York played Detroit on Oct. 27, creating a confirmed second-night back-to-back.
- Chicago last played Oct. 26; the schedule spot favors a Knicks margin fade.
- Both sides of the 7.5-point rung are quoted, with 22,731 contracts traded and a 1¢ yes spread.
- Knicks starters are expected rather than officially confirmed; late rest or limitation news could change the estimate.
- Karl-Anthony Towns over 12.5 total rebounds+83%Won
Taken at −121 on DraftKings
NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 56 rebounds in 4 current regular-season games over 126.6 minutes: 15.92 rebounds per 36.
- Chicago is averaging 110.4 possessions, 90.0 field-goal attempts and 36.5 makes: 53.5 missed shots per game.
- Only 4 current regular-season games: Towns went over 12.5 twice and under twice.
- Game total under 228.5−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on Kalshi
Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Shrunk role ORTG: Knicks road 112.1, Bulls home 110.7 versus league 110.8.
- Shrunk role pace: Knicks 100.2 and Bulls 103.4, producing 101.8 blended possessions.
- Model total 226.7, 4.8 points below Pinnacle's 231.5 main line; the 3-point gate clears.
- Expected lineups are not official five hours before tip; Brunson/Towns and Giddey/Powell are projected, not confirmed.
- Under 231.5−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
Crowd EchoUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Offshore under cluster includes HomeRunHazard ($15.2k, NBA 53.1%), BullishBarb ($2.0k, NBA 66.5%), and woshikd ($950, NBA 80.5%).
- Current-season team totals average 224.7 points: Knicks 209.2, Bulls 240.2, with New York's 102.2 pace below Chicago's 110.4.
- Only four regular-season games inform the current ratings; the total distribution is wide.
- Game total under 233−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Sharp DriftDown 8% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- TIMING; SHARP REFERENCE Pinnacle opened 235 and is now 231.5, a 3.5-point drop.
- Cashing likelihood apart from price quality: 54%; the sharp move only briefly retraced to 232.5 before returning to 231.5.
- The sharp total briefly rose to 232.5 at 6:10am before returning to 231.5 at 6:57am; another reversal would reduce the timing edge.
- Josh Giddey under 24.5 points + rebounds + assists−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under in 8 of 9 current-season games; the lone over was 27 PRA.
- Current season average is 18.8 PRA across 9 games.
- Last-five average is 19.4 PRA in 24.3 minutes per game.
- Early-season sample is only nine games; his 2025 baseline was 33.9 PRA.
- Chicago Bulls under 113.5 team points−100%Lost
Taken at −118 on FanDuel
+EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Bulls current regular-season offensive rating is 100.3; Knicks defensive rating is 103.1.
- Efficiency blend projects Chicago near 108 points, 5.5 below the 113.5 line.
- Total moved from 234.5 to 232.5, supporting a lower-scoring market direction.
- Four-game regular-season sample is thin; Chicago scored 120 and 132 in two games.
- Game under 232.5 total−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Matchup blend projects roughly 222 points from current offensive/defensive efficiency, below the 232.5 contract line.
- Knicks games average 209.2 total points; Bulls games average 240.2, while Chicago's 110.4 pace and New York's 102.2 pace create a measurable clash.
- Only four regular-season games per team; current efficiency and total samples are thin and highly volatile.
- Game under 232.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −112 on FanDuel
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model midpoint is 224.8 points from each offense's early-season scoring and opponent defense.
- New York's four totals average 207.0; three of four stayed below 214 despite the current 232.5 line.
- Season ratings imply a slower 102.3-possession Knicks environment than Chicago's 110.4 pace.
- Chicago's four games average 240.3 total points, a direct warning against extrapolating New York's lower totals.
- under 228.5 game total−100%Lost
Taken at 43¢ on ProphetX
Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- adjusted total projects about 224.0, 4.5 points below the 228.5 rung.
- Current pace is 102.3 for New York and 110.4 for Chicago; the matchup blend is near 104 possessions.
- Current scoring is modest, 104.0 Knicks and 110.8 Bulls points per game, while the prior-season blend tempers the early sample.
- Only four current-season games per team, below the eight-game gate; prior-season blending forces LEAN and half stake.
Questions
Who won Knicks vs. Bulls?
The Knicks won 133–127 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.