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76ers vs. PacersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
76ers
114–109Final
Pacers
Score by period
Team1234T
PHI25371339114
IND25273621109

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 232.5 48¢

Why High Bar likes it: Combined season and last-10 scoring is 226.5 points (Philadelphia 110.0, Indiana 116.5), six below this line.

High BarUp 27% return this season · 32 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 24-5 on this game · +56% return

  1. Game total under 234.56 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    6 modelsFirst Month, Pace Pair +4
    Why 6 models like it
    First Month
    • Sharp main is 235.5; 234.5 is one point lower and within the required two-point window.
    • Last-season pace: Philadelphia 103.1 possessions, Indiana 103.6; the 206.7 combined baseline is well below this total range.
    • Both teams are only four regular-season games in; current pace is much higher at 110.5 for Philadelphia and 108.6 for Indiana.
    Pace Pair
    • Indiana's current L10/season profile is 105.9 pace, 110.0 ORtg, 108.5 DRtg; Philadelphia is 108.8, 100.9, 98.4.
    • Opponent cross-match at 107.35 possessions projects approximately 224 total points, 10.5 below the 234.5 rung; cashing likelihood 62%.
    • Haliburton and Nembhard remain questionable and starters are not confirmed; either active player could restore creation and pace.
    Schedule Tax Contrarian
    • Efficiency blend is approximately 224 points: Philadelphia 100.9 ORtg versus Indiana 108.5 DRtg, and Indiana 110.0 ORtg versus Philadelphia 98.4 DRtg, at roughly 107.4 possessions.
    • Indiana played Oct. 25 and Oct. 26, making this its third game in four days; Philadelphia last played Oct. 25.
    • The market already moved six points from 240.5 to 234.5, so much of the schedule and Haliburton information is absorbed.
    Sharp Drift
    • SHARP REFERENCE Pinnacle moved the total from 236.5 open to 233.5 current, a 3.0-point drop.
    • ProphetX still offers Under 234.5, one point above the sharp current number, at 52.83c (-112 equivalent).
    • Haliburton and Nembhard remain questionable, and final inactives/starters are not knowable yet.
  2. Philadelphia 76ers −7.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −104 on FanDuel

    2 modelsCoaches Corner, Crowd Echo
    Why 2 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Pacers are in a 3-in-4 stretch and enter with only one rest day; Philadelphia has had three days between games.
    • Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are out, leaving Andrew Nembhard to handle Indiana's primary creation against Nick Nurse's pressure schemes.
    • Philadelphia's lineup remains expected rather than officially confirmed, and late availability could alter the matchup.
    Crowd Echo
    • PHI current net rating is +2.45 versus Indiana +1.45; PHI is 3-1 with a +3.0 recent margin versus Indiana 2-2 at +1.5.
    • Haliburton and Nembhard are officially questionable; projected starters are not confirmed, and either status can materially change the margin.
  3. Game total under 235.52 models agree
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    2 modelsMinutes Cap, Cheap Side
    Why 2 models like it
    Minutes Cap
    • Shams report carried by BasketNews says Philadelphia will limit LeBron James and Joel Embiid to around 30 minutes early this season.
    • In the last 10 comparable back-to-back/3-in-4 spots, Philadelphia went under 235.5 eight times and Indiana four times.
    • The cap is described as around 30 minutes and season-opening, not a game-specific hard limit.
    Cheap Side
    • Last-10 pace is 104.1 for Indiana and 103.3 for Philadelphia; the 103.7 blended pace is not elevated.
    • Last-10 offense/defense PPP produces a modeled total near 222.5; recent average game totals are 228.6 Indiana and 215.8 Philadelphia.
    • Expected lineups are not confirmed; Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard are listed questionable.
  4. Indiana Pacers +7.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsSharp Wallet Dog, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    Why 2 models like it
    Sharp Wallet Dog
    • Model makes Indiana +7.5 a 55% cover: current-season net ratings are Indiana +1.45 and Philadelphia +2.45 through four games.
    • Pinnacle posts the same 7.5-point rung at Philadelphia -108 / Indiana +7.5 -102; devigged Indiana cover reference is about 49.3%.
    • Haliburton and Nembhard remain questionable; the projected Indiana lineup is not confirmed two hours before tip.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • Both lineups remain expected; Pacers list Haliburton and McConnell out while Philadelphia's core remains projected, widening variance.
    • Game total under 232.5
      +108%Won

      Taken at 48¢ on Novig

      High BarUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Combined season and last-10 scoring is 226.5 points (Philadelphia 110.0, Indiana 116.5), six below this line.
      • Indiana is 11th in pace at 105.9; Philadelphia is fourth at 108.8, so the matchup is not two top-five pace teams.
      • Philadelphia's pace ranks top five, and Indiana's .5573 eFG% could sustain a faster scoring environment.
    • LeBron James under 20 pointsFavorite
      +49%Won

      Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

      Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Philadelphia’s 13.5-point win rung is 30.5%, implying meaningful fourth-quarter rest risk for PHI starters.
      • PHI’s seven 15+ wins in the last 20 had 27.3 average starter minutes.
      • James averages 16.33 points in 33.43 minutes and stayed under 20 in all three current-season games.
      • James has only three current-season observations and no direct 15+ win sample.
    Show all 21 picks
    1. Jaylen Brown under 25 pointsFavorite
      +45%Won

      Taken at 69¢ on Kalshi

      Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Philadelphia’s 13.5-point win rung is 30.5%, clearing the blowout trigger.
      • PHI starters averaged 27.3 minutes in seven 15+ wins across the last 20 games.
      • Brown averages 20.75 points in 36.84 minutes and stayed under 25 in 3 of 4 regular-season games.
      • Brown has only four current-season games, and none came in a 15+ win.
    2. Game total under 233.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Price CapUp 10% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Blended pace/efficiency estimate centers the game near 226 total points.
      • Current-season samples: Indiana 105.9 possessions, Philadelphia 108.8; blended pace is about 106.4.
      • Current ratings are Indiana 110.0/108.5 and Philadelphia 100.8/98.4 offense/defense; last-season ratings are blended for the four-game sample.
      • Both starting groups are expected rather than confirmed; Andrew Nembhard and Tyrese Haliburton remain questionable for Indiana.
    3. Indiana Pacers over +7.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Novig

      Old PriorDown 10% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Last-season net ratings were Philadelphia -0.17 and Indiana -7.77; the current four-game gap is only 1.0 point.
      • Projected spread after regression and home adjustment is Philadelphia -5.5, leaving two points of cushion to +7.5.
      • Indiana's projected starters are not confirmed; Andrew Nembhard and Tyrese Haliburton are listed questionable.
    4. Philadelphia 76ers −4.5
      +79%Won

      Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

      Back-to-Back DebtUp 19% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Indiana plays its third game in four days after games on Oct. 25 and Oct. 26.
      • Pacers are 3-15 with a -9.24 average net rating in 18 prior 3-in-4 spots in 2025; 0-1, -7.8 this season.
      • Philadelphia has two rest days since Oct. 25; its expected star group has no morning-report absence.
      • Indiana's Haliburton and Nembhard are questionable, while Philadelphia's lineup remains expected rather than confirmed.
    5. Indiana Pacers +6.5
      +113%Won

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      Dog RungsDown 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Philadelphia is in a compressed road sequence: Milwaukee Oct. 24, Detroit Oct. 25, Indiana Oct. 28.
      • The favorite's bench is short-handed with Barlow, Fall, Hukporti and Walker out.
      • Ladder gate cleared: both sides quoted, 20,333 contracts traded, 2-cent spread, and monotone neighboring rungs.
      • Haliburton remains questionable; a late scratch would threaten the Pacers top-two-scorer gate and materially lower cover probability.
    6. Philadelphia 76ers to winFavorite
      +35%Won

      Taken at −285 on Fliff

      NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Philadelphia owns the better early-season profile: +2.45 net rating versus Indiana +1.45.
      • 76ers defense is allowing 98.4 points per 100 possessions versus 108.5 for Indiana.
      • Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell; Philadelphia's expected five includes Maxey, Brown, LeBron and Embiid.
      • Both lineups remain expected rather than officially confirmed at 3:15 PM PDT; a late scratch would materially change the number.
    7. Game under 234.5 total
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

      BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season scoring baseline is 226.5 combined points: Philadelphia 110.0 and Indiana 116.5 through four games.
      • Recent scoring matches that baseline: Philadelphia averaged 110.0 and Indiana 116.5 across their last four.
      • Philadelphia owns a 98.4 defensive rating; Indiana's 108.5 defensive rating also supports a lower blended expectation than 234.5.
      • Indiana scored 136 in its most recent high-end outburst, showing meaningful early-season scoring variance.
    8. Game total under 237.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected total about 229: current-season offense ratings sum near 211 per 100 possessions at roughly 109 possessions.
      • Each team’s four regular-season game totals average about 224 combined; this supports a lower scoring baseline than the ladder center.
      • Only four regular-season games per team; early offensive and defensive ratings are noisy, and opponents differ.
    9. Philadelphia 76ers wins by over 1.5 pointsLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 31¢ on Kalshi

      Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • That 1¢ winner-to-1.5 step is below the brief's expected 2.5, 3¢ middle-ladder decrement.
      • Philadelphia and Indiana game-winner mids are 70.5¢ and 29.5¢, summing to 100¢; the ladder anchor is coherent.
      • A Philadelphia win by exactly 1 point is the key assumption; if that frequency is near 1%, the seam disappears.
    10. Indiana Pacers +8
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Steam CoolerUp 35% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 76ers moved from -2.5 to -7.5, a 5-point shift after Indiana’s injury news.
      • Haliburton’s 24.5% usage and 43.3% assist rate support a roughly 3.0, 3.5-point absence swing, at least 1.5 below the move.
      • Nembhard remains an expected starter if active; his 12.2 PPG and 4.8 APG provide more replacement offense than the market’s full move implies.
      • Haliburton and Nembhard are both still questionable; either playing could make the full move more accurate.
    11. Game total under 223.5 points
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection: live estimate 217.0 total after 42 combined points with 1:28 left in Q1, versus the Kalshi 223.5 threshold.
      • Philadelphia is the faster side (108.8 pace) versus Indiana (105.9); both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0, so no recent acceleration supports a runaway pace.
      • Efficiency matchup: Philadelphia 100.9 ORTG versus Indiana 108.5 DRTG, and Indiana 110.0 ORTG versus Philadelphia 98.4 DRTG; pregame blended estimate was about 224.2, but the early live scoring rate pulls the current estimate down.
      • Only 10.5 minutes of game state are observed; one hot second quarter can erase the early scoring gap.
    12. Indiana Pacers to winLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 34¢ on ProphetX

      Shootaround WhisperUp 10% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • the 9:30 AM NBA report has Tyrese Haliburton questionable, but he has played all 7 regular-season games and logged 34.97 minutes Monday.
      • Haliburton remains an expected starter; Indiana's actionable read is more likely active than the flat-questionable blend implies.
      • Most likely loss: Haliburton sits or is restricted by the left-hamstring tightness after Monday's heavy workload.
    13. Game under 234.5 total points
      +93%Won

      Taken at −108 on DraftKings

      Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season-to-date scoring averages total 226.5 points, eight below this number.
      • Philadelphia's four recent game totals averaged 217.0; Indiana's averaged 231.5.
      • Indiana is without Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell, reducing primary creation and transition pressure.
      • Both projected lineups are still expected rather than confirmed; late availability news could change pace or usage.
    14. Indiana Pacers +6 spread
      +117%Won

      Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

      Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • With 12-point NBA margin SD, that moneyline implies roughly a 6.3-point mean margin; the coherent Pacers +6 cover probability is about 48.9%.
      • Philadelphia wins by 7 or more; that is the single most likely loss path.
    15. Philadelphia 76ers wins by over 5.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Rest TaxDown 103% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PHI has two days off; Indiana is on the second night of a back-to-back after a 10/26 road loss.
      • Three-season split: Indiana averaged roughly -7.0 points on one-rest-day back-to-backs versus about neutral on two-plus rest days.
      • I shade the historical signal to a 1.5, 2.5 point rest effect; adjusted margin is about PHI -7.5 versus a 5.5 center.
      • Indiana's expected lineup still lists Tyrese Haliburton and Andrew Nembhard as questionable; confirmation could materially change the edge.

    Questions

    Who won 76ers vs. Pacers?

    The 76ers won 114–109 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

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