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Spurs vs. JazzFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDelta Center · Salt Lake City
Spurs
117–111Final
Jazz
Score by period
Team12345T
SAS2229342012117
UTA322330206111

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 232.5 48¢

Why High Bar likes it: The 233.5 sharp main is 4.25 points above the teams’ combined current-season/last-four scoring average of 229.25 (Spurs 116.5, Jazz 112.75).

High BarUp 27% return this season · 32 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 25-6 on this game · +876% return

  1. Game total under 234.5 points3 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    3 modelsPrice Cap, Opener Ladder +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Price Cap
    • Blended current/last-season ratings and pace project roughly 228 combined points.
    • Reference books cluster at 233.5, 234.5 with balanced pricing; Kalshi's 234.5 contract is the usable under price.
    • Utah's Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes are questionable; expected lineups are not confirmed four hours before tip.
    Opener Ladder
    • Model projection: ~230 points, about 3.5 below the ladder's current 233.5 center.
    • Four-game rates: pace 105.1/103.0; adjusted scoring estimate ~114.3 Spurs + 107.0 Jazz per 100 possessions.
    • Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes are questionable; expected Utah lineup is unconfirmed, and availability can shift scoring.
    Shot Clock
    • Expected total 230.4, about 4.1 points below Kalshi's 234.5 same-rung threshold.
    • Spurs dictate slightly higher tempo: 105.1 possessions versus Utah's 103.0; both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0.
    • Markkanen and Hayes remain questionable after the web and pregame checks; either status can change Utah's efficiency.
  2. Game total under 232.52 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    2 modelsHigh Bar, Cheap Side
    Why 2 models like it
    High Bar
    • The 233.5 sharp main is 4.25 points above the teams’ combined current-season/last-four scoring average of 229.25 (Spurs 116.5, Jazz 112.75).
    • Neither team clears both top-five gates: San Antonio ranks 15th in pace/11th in offense; Utah ranks 22nd/15th.
    • The season and last-10 samples are only four games each, so the scoring baseline is thin.
    Cheap Side
    • Regular-season scoring baselines are 226.2 Spurs and 233.8 Jazz across four games; matchup blend centers near 230 before rest.
    • Spurs played Tuesday while Utah last played Monday; the rest adjustment trims the projected total rather than requiring an over-side pace gate.
    • Starting lineups are expected, not confirmed; Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes remain questionable for Utah.
  3. Utah Jazz spread +13.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    2 modelsOld Prior, Points Getting
    Why 2 models like it
    Old Prior
    • Four-game net ratings are Spurs +6.6 and Jazz -8.0; home-adjusted blend projects roughly a 12.5-point Spurs margin.
    • Last-season net ratings were Spurs +7.87 and Jazz -8.03, supporting regression toward a margin below 13.5.
    • Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes are questionable; either status could materially change Utah's competitiveness.
    Points Getting
    • Pinnacle's sharp reference moved from +12.5 to +14 toward Utah; ProphetX still offers +13.5.
    • Spurs are on the second night of a back-to-back after beating Sacramento on Oct. 27.
    • Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes are both officially questionable; a late Markkanen scratch materially weakens Utah's top-scoring group.
  4. Game total under 233.52 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsMissing Star Total, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Missing Star Total
    • Jaren Jackson Jr. is confirmed out at 4:00 PM PDT; 16.25 PPG and 2.0 APG make him Utah's second-leading scorer.
    • Sharp total moved only 234.5 to 233.5, leaving most of the estimated injury effect beyond the market move.
    • Losing Jackson's rim protection can raise San Antonio efficiency; the +1.5-point defensive adjustment may still be too small.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 229.3 combined points from current season scoring rates (SAS 116.5, UTA 112.8) sits 4.2 below the posted total.
    • Spurs own a 104.4 defensive rating; Utah owns a 109.5 offensive rating, a weak matchup for the home attack.
    • Only four games of 2026 data make the efficiency sample fragile and variance wide.
  5. Utah Jazz spread +14.52 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsResting Size, Steam Cooler
    Why 2 models like it
    Resting Size
    • my Spurs margin estimate is -14.0, within 0.5 point of the Utah rung; recent net ratings are Spurs +6.75 and Jazz -8.25.
    • Expected lineups are not confirmed; Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes remain questionable for Utah.
    Steam Cooler
    • FanDuel moved Spurs -11.5 to -14.5 (+3.0); BetOnline also moved two points since open.
    • Official Oct. 28 NBA report moved Jaren Jackson Jr. to Out with an MCL tear, explaining the steam.
    • Most likely loss: Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes are both ruled out, leaving Utah without Jackson and Jusuf Nurkic inside.
  6. Utah Jazz +13.52 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsCrowd Echo, BETALAB 6.0
    Why 2 models like it
    Crowd Echo
    • Model makes Utah +13.5 a 52.0% outcome: home court and San Antonio's back-to-back offset the rating gap.
    • Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes remain questionable; the expected Utah lineup is not confirmed.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Season net rating gap is 14.6 points, but home court and rest adjustment project San Antonio closer to -11.5 than -13.5.
    • San Antonio is off a Tuesday game; Utah last played Monday, creating a measurable rest edge for the home underdog.
    • Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes remain questionable; either absence materially lowers Utah's cover probability.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Game total under 232.5 points2 models agree
    +93%Won

    Taken at −108 on FanDuel

    2 modelsCoaches Corner, Shot Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Eight early-season team-game totals average 229.6 points.
    • Utah’s four games averaged 103.0 possessions; San Antonio’s averaged 105.1.
    • Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes remain questionable; either status can materially change Utah’s offense and spacing.
    Shot Clock
    • Projection: 230.1 points versus the 232.5-point Kalshi rung; raw under probability is 0.49 as a fraction, or 49¢ (+104 equivalent).
    • Tempo: San Antonio should dictate slightly through its higher 105.1 season pace versus Utah's 103.0; both pace-L10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Only four regular-season games inform the 2026-27 pace and efficiency sample; both team rates can regress sharply.
  2. Utah Jazz +12.52 models agree
    +122%Won

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsBack-to-Back Debt, Altitude Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    Back-to-Back Debt
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, Utah last played Oct. 26; San Antonio played Oct. 27, creating the rested-side versus back-to-back spot.
    • The main spread moved only from roughly Utah +12.5 to +13.5 at major books, under the brief's two-point adjustment screen.
    • San Antonio's same-spot record is strong: 2026 back-to-back sample 1-0, +15.1 net; 2025 sample 12-3 with +10.6 average net rating across 15 games.
    Altitude Ledger
    • Current ratings: Spurs +6.6, Jazz -8.0 over four games; home court and 3-point visitor fatigue adjustment imply Spurs by 9.1.
    • Jazz +12.5 gives 3.4 points beyond that margin; early-season-shrunk model cover probability: 55%.
    • Only four regular-season games inform the team ratings; regression and game-to-game variance are substantial.
  3. San Antonio Spurs −13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  4. San Antonio Spurs wins by over 6.5 pointsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 71¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 5.5-to-6.5 mid drop is 5.5c, versus the brief's expected roughly 2.5, 3c per point.
    • Winner identity is coherent: SAS winner is 85.5c, while SAS over 1.5 and 3.5 are 83c and 80c.
    • The apparent seam may be a market-maker segmentation rather than a true misprice.
  5. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    +25400%Won

    Taken at +25400

    Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended pace/ratings project SAS, UTA at 230.2, 4.3 below the 234.5 rung.
    • SAS/UTA L10 pace is 100.2/107.5; defensive ratings are 106.3/120.2, pulling the estimate down.
    • Pinnacle headlined 233.5 and 227.5; ProphetX's higher under rungs improve the numbers. The +255 quote is 28.17¢ implied and clears the desk's parlay-tax threshold.
    • Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes remain questionable; expected starters are not confirmed.
  6. Game total under 235.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    Quiet StarUp 40% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Utah's confirmed second-leading scorer, Jaren Jackson Jr., is out; he averaged 16.25 points in 26.07 minutes.
    • Jaren's 0.623 points/minute versus projected replacement Ace Bailey's 0.476 implies roughly 3.8 points lost before a modest pace adjustment.
    • Sharp total opened 234.5 and is now 233.5, only a one-point move, below the brief's two-point pass threshold.
    • The current-season scoring sample is only four games, so the 16.25-to-13.0 scorer/replacement estimate is noisy.
  7. Keyonte George under 2.5 three-pointers made
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 63¢ on Novig

    Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 days
  8. Game total under 234
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Stiff Line PairDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION; estimated total 230.5, 3.5 points below the 234 rung.
    • Expected replacement Jaxson Hayes averages 23.76 MPG and 10.33 PPG, not a full offensive substitute.
    • Most likely loss: Hayes and the replacement rotation efficiently absorb Jackson's usage while Markkanen plays.
  9. Utah Jazz spread +12.5
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the full 33-rung game spread ladder was read; adjacent game rungs are monotone around the selected line.
    • ProphetX moneyline is Spurs -610 / 85.92¢ and Jazz +580 / 14.71¢; normalized Spurs win probability is about 85.4%.
    • With NBA margin SD around 12, that moneyline maps to roughly a 12.6-point mean margin and about 49, 50% for Jazz +12.5.
    • Lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes are listed questionable, so late news could explain the seam.
  10. Utah Jazz to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 15¢ on Tailgate

    Back-to-Back TaxDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Antonio played Sacramento Tuesday, making this a road second night of a back-to-back; Utah last played Monday.
    • Pinnacle moved the spread from San Antonio -12.5 to -14, only a 1.5-point tired-team adjustment versus the 2-point priced threshold.
    • Pinnacle's current +479/-647 moneyline de-vigs to 16.6% Utah; adding the estimated 1.5-point road-B2B cost puts fair probability near 20.5%.
    • Lauri Markkanen is still questionable and Utah's expected starters are not confirmed; this is capped at 0.5u.
  11. Game total under 231
    +127%Won

    Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

    Minutes CapDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Spurs starters averaged 29.2, 31.6 minutes across four games; the latest win capped them at 26.0, 30.2.
    • Prior second-night samples cut Fox, Vassell, Castle and Wembanyama to 29.7, 29.9, 29.4 and 27.7 minutes.
    • The 233.5 total has not moved since opening; SHARP REFERENCE is Pinnacle 233.5, under -105.
    • Markkanen and Hayes were still questionable at 4:10 PM; Markkanen playing could raise Utah's offense and keep starters engaged.
  12. Svi Mykhailiuk under 8.5 points
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Svi averages 3.75 points and 17.0 minutes across four regular-season games.
    • He stayed under 8.5 in four of his latest five games: 0, 2, 3, 10, 3 points.
    • His latest five-game sample shows only 3.4 field-goal attempts per game and an expected bench role.
    • Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes are questionable; both absences could expand Svi's minutes in a thin Jazz rotation.
  13. Game over 234.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  14. Game under 233.5 total points
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 226.3 combined points per game from San Antonio's season offense/defense baseline; Utah's analogous figure is 233.8.
    • Spurs' 104.4 season defensive rating is 13.1 points better than Utah's defense, favoring a slower Utah scoring environment.
    • Lauri Markkanen is officially out; Utah also loses Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic, removing major scoring and size.
    • Depleted Utah may concede efficient transition scoring to Victor Wembanyama and San Antonio's young core.
  15. Game total under 238.5
    +61%Won

    Taken at 62¢ on Polymarket US

    Pace ClashDown 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model: 104.9 possessions from SAS 106.1 and UTA 103.3, weighted 60/40 toward Spurs tempo.
    • Current adjusted efficiencies: SAS 111.0/104.4 and UTA 109.5/117.5 produce a 232.2-point projection.
    • Three-point attempt rates are 43.7% SAS and 38.9% UTA; variance rises, but no transition-defense bonus is supported.
    • Lauri Markkanen and Jaxson Hayes remain questionable; final availability is unresolved.
  16. Game total over 230.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended pace projects about 104 possessions and approximately 234 total points, 3.5 above this rung.
    • San Antonio's current 111.0 offensive rating meets Utah's 117.5 defensive rating; prior-season blending supports the scoring baseline.
    • the main market centers near 233.5, leaving a three-point cushion at 230.5.
    • Most likely loss: Lauri Markkanen sits or is limited; his questionable status could move the projection by at least two points.

Questions

Who won Spurs vs. Jazz?

The Spurs won 117–111 on Wednesday, Oct 28, 2026.

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