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Grizzlies vs. Trail BlazersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalModa Center · Portland
Grizzlies
124–103Final
Trail Blazers
Score by period
Team1234T
MEM25333333124
POR25332520103

Top model pick, graded

Won

Memphis Grizzlies spread +7.5 50¢

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 22-11 on this game · +33% return

  1. Memphis Grizzlies spread +7.56 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    6 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Old Prior +4
    Why 6 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • Both starting groups are expected rather than confirmed, and the game is a high-variance preseason/early-season-style sample.
      Old Prior
      • Novig Portland spread price moved from 47.5c at opening to 50.5c, the clearest short-form move on this game.
      • Portland’s +18.0 current net rating through three games is far above last season’s -0.2; regression tempers that tiny sample.
      • Memphis has also started 4-0 with a +9.4 net rating, so its early form may be more real than assumed.
      Sharp Wallet Dog
      • Model fair cover probability: 55%, above the 52% gate.
      • Pinnacle's same-rung devigged Memphis +7.5 reference is 50.7%; sharp line is exactly 7.5.
      • Memphis' projected starters are not confirmed; Portland's projected group is also only expected.
      Dog Rungs
      • Gate cleared: Portland is a 7.5-point favorite, within the required 7, 13 range.
      • Portland’s Shaedon Sharpe is out and Robert Williams III is doubtful; three two-way bench players are questionable.
      • Memphis has only four current-season games in the warehouse, making the estimate noisy; a Portland blowout loses the cover.
    • Game total under 233.54 models agree
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Novig

      4 modelsFirst Month, +EV Volume Handicapper +2
      Why 4 models like it
      First Month
      • Last-season scoring baseline was 230.2 combined: Memphis 114.7 and Portland 115.5.
      • Current pace is 103.4 Memphis and 104.0 Portland versus 104.5 and 104.4 last season; roster-adjusted projection is 231.0.
      • Expected lineups are not confirmed; Portland has multiple questionable players and late changes could lift pace or efficiency.
      +EV Volume Handicapper
      • Cross-efficiency projection is approximately 224 total points: Portland 124.3 offense / 106.3 defense, Memphis 112.9 / 103.5.
      • Same-line market prices imply roughly 51% fair probability for the under across FanDuel, DraftKings, and BetMGM.
      • Only 3 Portland and 4 Memphis regular-season games; efficiency estimates are an early-season small sample.
      BETALAB 6.0
      • Model total 231.9, 1.6 points below the 233.5 contract line.
      • Pace is only about 103-104 possessions; full-game under offers better protection than thinner period markets.
      • Projected lineups are expected, not confirmed; Robert Williams III is doubtful and several Portland reserves are questionable.
      Shot Clock
      • Projection: 103.7 blended possessions × 223.5 combined matchup efficiency implies 231.8 points.
      • Portland nominally dictates tempo at 104.0 possessions versus Memphis at 103.4, but both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0; neither recent trend supports a pace jump.
      • Only four Memphis and three Portland regular-season games are in the ratings; early-season efficiency is noisy.
    • Deni Avdija under 36.5 points + rebounds + assists
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −111 on DraftKings

      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Season baseline is 30.0 combined points, rebounds, and assists; last-five baseline is 33.0.
      • Last-five minutes rose to 28.6, but that remains below the workload typically needed to clear 36.5.
      • With Shaedon Sharpe absent, Avdija's historical output falls to 21.17 points from 24.88 with Sharpe, not a usage boost.
      • Avdija is an expected rather than confirmed starter; late lineup news can change his minutes.
    • Portland Trail Blazers −7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −115 on FanDuel

      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Portland +18.0 net rating versus Memphis +9.4 through the opening week.
      • Recent margin: Portland +18.7 over three; Memphis +9.8 over four.
      • Baseline with home court is roughly Portland -11 to -12, above the -7.5 market.
      • Only three Portland games and four Memphis games create a thin early-season sample.
    • under 233.5 total
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • NBA total model 231.8 points; under probability 54.5% from current offensive, defensive, and pace ratings.
      • Movement: under opened 51.0% and is 49.0% now at ProphetX, effectively flat at -2.0 points.
      • Most likely loss: efficient shooting or a faster-than-projected pace pushes the game above 233.5.
    • Portland Trail Blazers spread −7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle exact-rung devig: Portland 49.3% at -7.5; power rating projects Portland cover 53.5%.
      • Current-season ratings: Portland +18.0 net and 124.3/106.3 ORtg/DRtg versus Memphis +9.4 net and 112.9/103.5.
      • Most likely loss: Memphis uses its extra rest day to neutralize Portland's efficiency edge and keeps the margin under eight.
    Show all 25 picks
    1. Portland Trail Blazers spread −9.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on Novig

      Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected margin: Portland +10.1 after a 2.0-point home-court bump and a small rest adjustment.
      • Portland season net +18.03 and Memphis +9.40; each team's current rolling average matches that early-season figure.
      • Normal 12-point NBA margin spread gives Portland -9.5 a 52.0% cover probability.
      • Only three Portland and four Memphis regular-season games: the rating sample is extremely thin.
    2. Memphis Grizzlies game winnerLong shot
      +257%Won

      Taken at 28¢ on Kalshi

      Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Memphis spread mids are 27¢ at over 1.5 and 22¢ at over 3.5: a 5¢ drop across two points implies roughly 2.5¢ per point.
      • That cadence makes the winner-to-over-1.5 gap look like a 0.5¢ seam instead of the expected roughly 2.5, 3¢.
      • The over-1.5 rung has only 3,667 contracts traded versus 354,741 on the winner market.
    3. Toumani Camara over 10.5 points
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Novig

      Vacuum PointsUp 64% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Camara's 32-game without-Sharpe split is 14.31 PPG versus 12.10 with him, plus 10.97 versus 10.40 FGA.
      • Expected starter; the 10.5 line is below my projected scoring median after the role adjustment.
      • The lineup remains expected rather than officially confirmed, and exact minutes are not posted.
    4. Deni Avdija under 25 points
      +67%Won

      Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

      Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Avdija played 23.45 minutes and scored 18 in Portland's 41-point win; his other scores were 26 and 23.
      • Avdija stayed under 25 in two of three current-season games, and the blowout case strengthens that side.
      • The current-season sample is only three games; his 26-point normal-minutes game is already above the line.
    5. Donovan Clingan under 10 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 44¢ on Kalshi

      Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Clingan scored 11 in Portland's 41-point win while playing 20.73 minutes; he scored 8 and 9 in the other two games.
      • The under hit in two of Clingan's three current-season games; the market implies only 44% for under 10.
      • The blowout sample is only one game, and Clingan still reached 11 points in it.
    6. Game total under 231.5Favorite
      +54%Won

      Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

      Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Live score is 50 through 18 minutes; blended pace-efficiency projection is 220 total points versus the 231.5 rung.
      • Portland pace is 104.0 and Memphis 103.4; both pace_l10_delta values are 0.0, so neither side is actively forcing a faster tempo.
      • Efficiency cross-read gives Memphis 109.6 points versus Portland's defense and Portland 113.9 versus Memphis's defense: 223.5 before the live slowdown.
      • Starters were confirmed live, but the web report listed Robert Williams III day-to-day while the slate listed him out; reserve-status disagreement adds rotation variance.
    7. Game total under 232.5
      +94%Won

      Taken at −106 on FanDuel

      Schedule Tax ContrarianUp 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model range 226-228 points, 4.5-6.5 below the 232.5 market total.
      • Both teams’ season pace is only 103.4-104.0 possessions; the high number relies on hot early shooting.
      • Season efficiency blend projects roughly 224 points before a modest home/offensive-form adjustment.
      • Both teams are undefeated and combining for 246.5 points per game, so recent offensive form can overwhelm the pace signal.
    8. Game total under 233.5 points
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

      Pace MismatchUp 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projected pace is about 103.4 possessions, with a slower-team bias.
      • Efficiency blend starts near 231 points before regression adjustments.
      • Portland's current 0.705 eFG% game is an extreme outlier; shooting regression lowers the projection toward 228, 230.
      • Both teams' regular-season samples are tiny: four Memphis games and three Portland games.
    9. Game total under 233.5 (Shaedon Sharpe out; estimated 4.0 points lost versus 1.5-point sharp drop)
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

      Missing Star TotalDown 4% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Shaedon Sharpe is confirmed Out on the 5:15 PM NBA report; latest full-season rate was 20.84 PPG and 2.64 APG, Portland's second-highest scorer.
      • Pinnacle moved from 234.5 opening to 233.0 current: a 1.5-point sharp drop, below the brief's 2-point pass threshold.
      • Sharpe is absent from the three-game 2026-27 rate table, so the top-two designation uses the latest completed full-season PPG; current-season interpretation could fail the gate.
    10. Memphis Grizzlies +7.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Cold ShoulderUp 97% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Kalshi moved Portland from 68.0% to 72.5% (+4.5 points); no Memphis injury appears on the current NBA report.
      • Portland is 3-0 with an inflated +18.7 margin, while Memphis is 4-0 and has one extra rest day before tip.
      • Portland has made 38.9% of threes this season versus 34.2% last season; the early margin has a shooting-luck warning.
      • Portland’s early profile remains excellent: 124.3 offensive rating, 106.3 defensive rating, and +18.0 net rating.
    11. Portland Trail Blazers to winFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 73¢ on Polymarket US

      Crowd EchoUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • POR current net rating is +18.03 versus MEM +9.40; home-court adjustment survives early-season shrinkage.
      • POR's rating sample is only three games and MEM's is only four; hot-start noise can overwhelm the model.
    12. Under 234.5 total
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      Sharp DriftDown 8% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • SHARP REFERENCE Pinnacle moved from 234.5 to 233, a 1.5-point drop; the current total is 233 (-110 over / -102 under).
      • The ProphetX rung is 1.5 points above the current sharp number, preserving the stale under number; the complete 33-rung game-total ladder was read and the target is monotonic.
      • Cashing likelihood is about 54%; the edge class is TIMING, not a projection claim. The line move is the reason for the play.
      • The sharp total bounced from an intraday low of 232 back to 233, so the move has partially reversed.
    13. Ty Jerome over 24.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on Fliff

      NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 29.8 points per game across four 2026-27 games; over this line in 3 of 4.
      • Minutes have held between 29.9 and 32.0 in three recent games, with an expected starting role.
      • Memphis is averaging 112.9 points per 100 possessions; Portland's season defensive rating is 106.3.
      • The sample is only four games, including a 45-point outlier and a 15-point miss.
    14. Deni Avdija under 23.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −111 on DraftKings

      Next Man PricedUp 16% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Sharpe is officially OUT; Deni is not on the official report and is listed in Portland's expected starting five.
      • 2025 regular-season Sharpe-out sample: 24 games, Deni averaged 30.84 minutes, 14.83 FGA, 21.17 points.
      • Same sample versus 42 Sharpe-played games: Deni was down 3.90 minutes, 2.05 FGA, and 4.78 points without Sharpe.
      • Deni's latest five and ten regular-season games average 25.4 and 25.6 points, with 17.0 and 17.2 FGA; recent form is materially hotter.
    15. Game total over 232.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Portland and Memphis coaches have used 9, 11-man rotations, with 101.7, 106.2 possessions in the recent sample rather than a slow setup.
      • Both sides are rested tonight: Portland last played 10/27 and Memphis 10/26; normal creator minutes support sustained pace.
      • Recent offensive ratings remain elevated: Portland 132.0 in its latest game and 120.5 in the prior two; Memphis posted 120.7 and 116.8 in two of its last four.
      • Most likely loss: Portland repeats its 80.7 defensive-rating outing against Phoenix and forces Memphis into a half-court game.
    16. Portland Trail Blazers −8.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −114 on FanDuel

      Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Portland is +18.0 net rating through three games versus Memphis at +9.4 through four.
      • Portland’s recent three-game net ratings average +18.0; Memphis’ four-game average is +9.4.
      • Portland has won its first three by 18.7 points per game and owns the home-court edge.
      • Both teams are undefeated, and the samples are only three and four games.
    17. 2-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +996

      Dog PairDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Joint fair probability is 15.2% versus Novig's 9.1¢ parlay quote: +6.1 points.
      • Road-dog shading is the thesis; Portland also shot 44.6% from three over its last two games, a small hot-stretch warning.
      • Memphis starters remain expected rather than confirmed; late news could remove the rest and matchup edge.
    18. Memphis Grizzlies +8.5
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Memphis has two rest days after Utah; Portland has one after the Lakers.
      • Pinnacle kept the main number at Portland -7.5; the spread has not moved toward this read.
      • Cashing likelihood apart from price: 55.5%; this is a schedule edge, not a payout argument.
      • Expected lineups are not confirmed; a late key-player scratch could reverse the schedule read.
    19. Game total under 234.5
      +85%Won

      Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 50/50 current-season and prior last-10 blend projects 103.2 possessions and 231.4 points.
      • Current regular-season samples are small, but adjusted offense/defense rates still put the projection 3.1 points below 234.5.
      • captured Pinnacle is 233 at -106/-106, consistent with a lower 234.5 ladder position.
      • Most likely loss: Portland's 124.3 current-season offensive rating and Memphis's hot shooting carry into another high-efficiency game.

    Win chance, start to finish

    50%PORMEMKickoff
    Oct 29Final

    Questions

    Who won Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers?

    The Grizzlies won 124–103 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

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