Get app

Kings vs. PelicansFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSmoothie King Center · New Orleans
Kings
120–132Final
Pelicans
Score by period
Team1234T
SAC30312732120
NOP24393930132

Top model pick, graded

Won

New Orleans Pelicans spread −5.5 −118

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: New Orleans is -5.4 net rating versus Sacramento's -17.3; the 11.9-point team gap supports the favorite.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% return this season · 85 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 14-21 on this game · −18% return

  1. Game total under 235.53 models agreeHigh conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsShort Bench, Bench Boss +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Short Bench
    • Schedule gate: nba_team_form_adv last_game_date shows NOP 10/28 (current B2B, 0 rest) and SAC 10/27 (not B2B, 1 rest).
    • Pace: NOP 107.5 and SAC 103.5 season/L10; SAC's slower profile can control possessions against a tired New Orleans group.
    • NOP's expected starters are not confirmed; Poole is doubtful and Dia/Pierre are questionable, leaving some rotation uncertainty.
    Bench Boss
    • NOP played last night, scoring 91 points in 102.7 possessions; one-day turnaround favors a shorter, lower-energy rotation.
    • NOP has five listed outs and an expected lineup change, while Sacramento has two days' rest; the fatigue/rest split points below the posted rung.
    • Most likely loss path: Sacramento's 121.4 defensive rating allows efficient Pelicans offense, producing a high-scoring game despite the short turnaround.
    Minutes Cap
    • Pinnacle sharp anchor is 236.0; Mosley’s B2B rotation adjustment is -2.5 points, making fair total 233.5.
    • New Orleans played Wednesday; Dejounte Murray (30.2 minutes) and Jordan Poole are officially OUT per the 3:15pm PDT injury report.
    • Sacramento’s projected starters remain unconfirmed, and the Kings could offset New Orleans’ absences with efficient replacement scoring.
  2. New Orleans Pelicans −6.53 models agree
    +95%Won

    Taken at −105 on BetMGM

    3 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails +1
    Why 3 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 11.9-point net-rating gap favors New Orleans before home-court adjustment.
    • New Orleans: 107.8 offense, 113.2 defense; Sacramento: 104.0 offense, 121.3 defense.
    • Only four regular-season games establish the efficiency sample; opponent quality may distort both ratings.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
      • Polymarket US fees lift the 50c raw cost to roughly 51.7c; the tail's 53% estimate leaves a narrow cushion.
      Snapp Decision of the Day
      • 11.9-point season net-rating gap: New Orleans -5.4 versus Sacramento -17.3.
      • Recent form favors New Orleans: both 0-4, but Pelicans' average margin is -5.8 versus Kings' -17.8.
      • New Orleans played Denver on 10/28, creating back-to-back fatigue and possible late-game drop-off.
    • Game total under 236.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −110 on FanDuel

      2 modelsQuant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner, Tempo Clock
      Why 2 models like it
      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner
      • Efficiency-and-pace blend projects about 231 points: roughly 5.5 points below the 236.5 market.
      • New Orleans' 107.8 offensive rating and Sacramento's 104.1 mark are both below 108 through four games.
      • New Orleans has produced 135 and 119 recently, so its scoring distribution is wide despite the low season rating.
      Tempo Clock
      • blended four-game 2026 sample with 2025 baseline puts the total around 232, 234 after the rest adjustment.
      • Pace projects near 104, 105 possessions, below the 106-plus pace needed for this number given the blended efficiency.
      • Sacramento's current 121.3 defensive rating can create efficient Pelicans offense and erase the projected margin.
    • New Orleans Pelicans to winFavorite2 models agree
      +45%Won

      Taken at 69¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsDrift, Quantitative +EV Analyst
      Why 2 models like it
      Drift
      • Four-game efficiency sample: New Orleans 107.8 offensive rating, 113.2 defensive rating, 107.5 pace versus Sacramento 104.0, 121.3, 103.5; the 11.93 net-rating gap plus home court, adjusted for the back-to-back, produces a 71.5% model.
      • Most likely loss: New Orleans is on a back-to-back after playing October 28, while Sacramento has the rest edge.
      Quantitative +EV Analyst
      • New Orleans' net rating is -5.4 versus Sacramento's -17.3 through four games, an 11.9-point differential.
      • The Pelicans lead 107.8 to 104.1 in offensive rating and 113.2 to 121.4 in defensive rating.
      • Both teams are 0-4, so the efficiency sample is only four games and highly noisy.
    • Sacramento Kings to winLong shot2 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 32¢ on Polymarket US

      2 modelsRested Road Dog, Report Lag
      Why 2 models like it
      Rested Road Dog
      • New Orleans played Oct. 28; Sacramento last played Oct. 27: home is on a back-to-back, road is not.
      • Model fair margin is New Orleans -4.0 versus the posted main spread of New Orleans -6.5, a 2.5-point gap.
      • Expected lineups are not confirmed; Jordan Poole is doubtful and three Pelicans are questionable.
      Report Lag
      • Jordan Poole was downgraded from questionable/day-to-day to doubtful at 9:49 AM; he averaged 15.9 regular-season minutes across four games.
      • Kalshi's New Orleans winner contract stayed at 67.5% from 10:07, 10:46 AM after the downgrade; no recorded adjustment followed.
      • Poole is doubtful, not out; a late clearance would erase the injury edge.
    • Sacramento Kings +5.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsBack-to-Back Debt, Ladder Seam
      Why 2 models like it
      Back-to-Back Debt
      • New Orleans is on a confirmed second night of a back-to-back; Sacramento last played October 27 and is the rested side.
      • Pelicans fatigue-spot record: 0-1, -5.1 net rating this season; 7-20, -5.42 net rating last season.
      • Expected, not confirmed, lineups remain in place; Keegan Murray is out, leaving Sacramento without an important starter.
      Ladder Seam
      • Cashing likelihood is about 50%; price quality comes only from ProphetX's related moneyline/spread markets, with no external fair-line claim.
      • The calculated incoherence is barely above the 3-point gate and depends on a normal margin distribution with roughly 12-point SD.
    Show all 26 picks
    1. Sacramento Kings +6.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsLate Scratch Ledger, Rest Tax
      Why 2 models like it
      Late Scratch Ledger
      • Dejounte Murray was officially ruled Out at 3:15 PM PDT; ProphetX still deals the main spread at NOP -6.5.
      • 1.61-point projection: 2025 New Orleans net rating was -4.83 without Murray versus -3.21 with him, across 66 versus 16 games.
      • Kings are 0-4 with a -17.8 recent scoring margin, while New Orleans is also poor but only -5.8.
      Rest Tax
      • New Orleans is on the second night of a back-to-back after Denver on Oct. 28; Sacramento last played Oct. 27.
      • 2023-25 margins fell to -6.32 for New Orleans on back-to-backs versus -2.49 otherwise; Sacramento's fell to -8.00 versus -1.38.
      • Sacramento traveled roughly 1,883 miles from California and crossed two time zones; New Orleans also has a poor 0-4 start.
    2. New Orleans Pelicans spread −5.5
      +85%Won

      Taken at −118 on DraftKings

      Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • New Orleans is -5.4 net rating versus Sacramento's -17.3; the 11.9-point team gap supports the favorite.
      • The spread moved from New Orleans -5.5 toward -6 at Pinnacle; market direction does not oppose the model.
      • Sacramento is 0-4 with five players listed out in the expected rotation, while New Orleans projects its core five.
      • New Orleans has Jordan Poole doubtful and several fringe players questionable; the expected lineup is not confirmed.
    3. New Orleans Pelicans spread −6.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      DriftUp 11% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Power rating projects New Orleans by 7.95 points: 5.95 matchup margin plus 2.0 home-court points.
      • New Orleans has the better four-game net rating (-5.38 vs. Sacramento -17.30), a 11.93-point gap.
      • New Orleans' 107.8 offense faces Sacramento's 121.3 defense; Sacramento's 104.0 offense faces New Orleans' 113.2 defense.
      • Most likely loss: Sacramento's LaVine-Sabonis creation outperforms the noisy early-season efficiency sample and keeps the margin under seven.
    4. Under 234.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 49¢ on Novig

      High BarUp 27% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Regular-season combined scoring averages 224.0 points, 11.5 below the posted 235.5 total.
      • Average eFG is 51.3% for New Orleans and 49.9% for Sacramento across four regular-season games.
      • New Orleans is on a back-to-back after scoring 91 Wednesday; Sacramento has two rest days.
      • Only four regular-season games; the season and last-10 samples are identical and highly noisy.
    5. New Orleans Pelicans spread −10.5
      +170%Won

      Taken at 37¢ on Novig

      Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Current-season net ratings: New Orleans -5.4 versus Sacramento -17.3 across four games.
      • After 2.0 home court and an estimated 1.5-point New Orleans back-to-back penalty, projected margin is about 12.4.
      • The rating sample is only four regular-season games; last-10 and season estimates are identical and noisy.
    6. Trey Murphy III over 18.5 points
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Novig

      Vacuum PointsUp 64% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Trey averaged 23.58 points, 17.81 FGA and 35.72 minutes in 26 games without Dejounte Murray.
      • Current expected starter has averaged 30.21 minutes over his last five; Murray's absence creates the primary redistribution.
      • The 18.5 rung is below my projected 20.5-point median and is not a longest-ladder price.
      • The expected lineup is not officially confirmed, and a reduced rotation role would erase the minutes-based edge.
    7. Jeremiah Fears under 4 assists
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

      Blowout MinutesUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Fears recorded 4 or more assists in only 2 of 8 current-season games.
      • He averages 2.5 assists in those eight games, well below the four-assist threshold.
      • The projected favorite has a 31.5% New Orleans-over-12.5 blowout rung, which can reduce late-game creation opportunities.
      • The current sample is only eight games and may not represent Fears’ full-season role.
    8. Jeremiah Fears under 15 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

      Blowout MinutesUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 6 of Fears’ 8 current-season games finished below 15 points; he averages 11.1 points.
      • Kalshi’s spread ladder puts New Orleans over 12.5 points at roughly 31.5%, creating blowout-related under upside.
      • Only eight current-season games inform the player distribution.
    9. Under 236.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

      Pace PairUp 3% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • opponent-adjusted current-season pace is 107.5 (NOP) and 103.5 (SAC); blended ratings project roughly 235.4 before a back-to-back adjustment and about 233.4 after it.
      • New Orleans played Denver on 10/28; Sacramento last played 10/27. The Pelicans' shorter turnaround is the tempo/efficiency suppressor.
      • Pinnacle is 235.5, under -108; its opening line was 237.5, so the market has moved down but ProphetX still offers a one-point cushion above the sharp line.
      • Most likely loss: both defenses remain as poor as their early-season ratings and transition/three-point variance pushes the total above 236.5.
    10. De'Andre Hunter over 2.5 three-pointers madeLong shot
      +300%Won

      Taken at 25¢ on Novig

      Deep RangeUp 23% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Career 37.1% accuracy shrunk 40% toward the 34.3% league rate gives a roughly 35% fair over probability.
      • Keegan Murray is out; Hunter's current starter minutes have climbed from 19.7 to 32.7 across the opening four games.
      • New Orleans is not bottom-third in opponent three-point-attempt rate; the support is role growth, not a defensive mismatch.
    11. Sacramento Kings spread +7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

      Points GettingUp 30% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • PROJECTION edge; New Orleans is on the second night of a back-to-back after losing 104-91 at Denver Wednesday.
      • Sacramento's top three scorers through four games, LaVine 27.25, Acuff 21.5, Sabonis 19.0 points, are all expected starters; Acuff supplies the ball handling.
      • Expected lineups are not confirmed; the Pelicans feed simultaneously lists Dejounte Murray as projected and out.
    12. Zion Williamson 20+ points
      +67%Won

      Taken at 60¢ on Kalshi

      Shaded OverDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Close-game gate clears: the spread ladder centers New Orleans at -6.5, below the 8-point limit.
      • Williamson scored 25, 17, 23, and 22 in his four current-season games, averaging 32.3 minutes; 3 of 4 cleared 20.
      • Tonight's starting lineup is still marked expected rather than officially confirmed at this wake.
    13. Game total under 227.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 32¢ on Kalshi

      Split ShiftDown 31% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Model total is about 226, 10.5 points below Pinnacle's 236.5 main line; the 3-point gate clears.
      • October blend gives New Orleans 109.7 home ORtg and 104.1 pace; Sacramento 104.9 road ORtg and 100.2 pace after 50% shrink.
      • Pinnacle and FanDuel both cross-check the broader market at 236.5, with Under 236.5 priced -114 and -110 respectively.
      • Only two current-season games inform each venue split; the heavy last-season blend drives the estimate.
    14. Domantas Sabonis over 14.5 total rebounds
      +102%Won

      Taken at +102 on DraftKings

      NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 0% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 66 rebounds in four 2026-27 regular-season games: 16.5 per game and 16.49 per 36 minutes.
      • Started all four regular-season games, averaging 36.0 minutes; observed range was 33.57-38.63.
      • Sacramento allowed 59.25 opponent rebounds per game across its first four regular-season games.
      • Only four regular-season games support the rate; no fitted distribution or calibrated cover history is used.
    15. Sacramento Kings spread +6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      Short BenchDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pace: New Orleans 107.5 versus Sacramento 103.5 season/L10 possessions; the slower Kings have a path to control tempo.
      • Last-game rotation: New Orleans used 8 players at 15+ minutes with a 28.63-minute top-five average; Sacramento used 7 with a 30.85-minute top-five average, making the Pelicans’ short turnaround the bigger burden.
      • Projected lineups are expected, not confirmed; Yahoo lists Jordan Poole questionable while the board context lists him out.
    16. Zach LaVine over 21.5 points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −125 on Fliff

      NFL Sharp EdgeDown 7% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 27.25 points per game across four 2026 regular-season games; LaVine cleared 21.5 in all four.
      • Sacramento is rested after Oct. 27, while New Orleans allows 113.2 points per 100 possessions.
      • My 61% win estimate versus Fliff's 55.6% break-even implies approximately 9.8% expected value.
      • New Orleans is on a back-to-back, which could alter pace and defensive intensity in either direction.
    17. New Orleans Pelicans under 121.5 team points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

      BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • New Orleans season baseline is 116.3 points and 107.8 offensive rating through four games.
      • Recent Pelicans offensive ratings: 88.6 last night, then 116.2, 113.5, and 112.9; the game is a back-to-back.
      • Poole and Dejounte Murray are officially out; grade A+, research quality 76/100, with three independent supporting layers.
      • Sacramento's season defensive rating is 121.4, creating a real path for New Orleans to clear 121.5.
    18. New Orleans Pelicans wins by over 6.5 points
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

      Margin NotchUp 80% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Empirical margin treatment keeps 7-point outcomes distinct from neighboring margins; adjusted win-by-7+ probability is 52%.
      • Polymarket US cross-checks the same 6.5 spread at 49¢; Kalshi spread history shows no one-point move in the last hour.
      • New Orleans is on a back-to-back after losing to Denver on Oct. 28, which can distort the usual margin distribution.
    19. Game total over 227.5
      +89%Won

      Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

      Shot ClockDown 12% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Projection: 230.6 expected points versus the Kalshi 227.5-point rung, a 3.1-point gap.
      • New Orleans is the slight tempo dictator: season pace 107.5 versus Sacramento 103.5; live Q1 possessions were nearly even at 28.4 versus 28.5.
      • Pace trend is flat for both: pace_l10_delta 0.0 for New Orleans and Sacramento, so the live read relies on the Pelicans' higher baseline rather than a fabricated trend.
      • The game has only four completed team games in the current-season sample, making the 104.0/107.8 offensive ratings unstable.
    20. 2-leg parlayLong shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at +996

      Dog PairDown 100% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Joint fair probability is 15.2% versus Novig's 9.1¢ parlay quote: +6.1 points.
      • Road-dog shading is the thesis; Portland also shot 44.6% from three over its last two games, a small hot-stretch warning.
      • Memphis starters remain expected rather than confirmed; late news could remove the rest and matchup edge.

    Questions

    Who won Kings vs. Pelicans?

    The Pelicans won 132-120 on Thursday, Oct 29, 2026.

    App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.