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Hornets vs. WizardsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCapital One Arena · Washington
Hornets
79–95Final
Wizards
Score by period
Team1234T
CHA2620132079
WAS2229281695

Top model pick, graded

Won

Washington Wizards −2.5 43¢

Why Power Gap likes it: Projected margin is Washington +6.96: net-rating differential +4.96 with the brief's 2.0-point home-court adjustment.

Power GapUp 12% return this season · 66 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 19-7 on this game · +45% return

  1. Washington Wizards to win7 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    7 modelsDrift, Tempo Boss +5
    Why 7 models like it
    Drift
    • Power rating 52.4% Washington: five-game regular efficiency averages, net -2.34 versus Charlotte -7.30; equal rest.
    • Pinnacle devigged fair price is 48.6% Washington at +102/-110; model gap is 3.8 percentage points.
    • Only five regular-season games create noisy efficiency estimates; Charlotte won the prior meeting 110-103.
    Tempo Boss
    • Washington's tempo split is 107.2 possessions in wins versus 100.8 in losses (+6.3); Charlotte's is 102.4 versus 97.85 (+4.5).
    • Washington uses transition on 16.9% of offensive possessions versus Charlotte's 14.5%, giving the Wizards the stronger pace lever.
    • The tempo split is only five games per team, so one early-season outlier can dominate it.
    Short Bench
    • Rotation favors Washington: 8 players at least 15 minutes, top-five 31.79 minutes; Charlotte had 6 and 34.17.
    • Efficiency anchor: Washington 110.2 ORtg, 112.5 DRtg, -2.34 net; Charlotte 100.4, 107.7, -7.3.
    • Expected rather than confirmed lineups; Dennis Schröder is probable, while both teams have several official outs.
    Crowd Echo
    • Model: 56% Washington win probability from five-game ratings, recent form, home court, and current availability.
    • Washington: 110.2 ORTG, 112.5 DRTG, -2.34 net; Charlotte: 100.4 ORTG, 107.7 DRTG, -7.30 net.
    • Only five regular-season games inform the ratings; the 56% estimate is fragile.
  2. Game total under 219.53 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at −109 on BetRivers

    3 modelsCoaches Corner, Both Tired Under +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Blended recent pace is 102.0 possessions; 219.5 requires roughly 2.15 combined points per possession.
    • Charlotte’s last five: 100.6 possessions and 100.4 offensive rating under coach Charles Lee.
    • The market already moved from a captured 220.5 to the live 219.5, reducing the cushion.
    Both Tired Under
    • 214.6-point recent-five scoring baseline is 4.9 below the 219.5 rung.
    • Both teams are on zero rest; the one-game tired samples are noisy, so the projection discounts them rather than overfitting them.
    • Each zero-rest sample is only 1 game, and both teams actually posted higher zero-rest offensive ratings and pace than their normal-rest samples.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • The teams average 214.6 combined points per game this season: Washington 113.6 and Charlotte 101.0.
    • Their combined season net ratings are -9.6, with Charlotte's 100.4 offensive rating dragging the matchup.
    • The recent totals span 184 to 244, so the distribution is wide despite the lower mean.
  3. Washington Wizards −2.5High conviction
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected margin is Washington +6.96: net-rating differential +4.96 with the brief's 2.0-point home-court adjustment.
    • Normal margin model with 12-point standard deviation gives Washington -2.5 a 64.6% cover probability.
    • The rating sample is only five regular-season games, so the +4.96 differential is highly noisy.
  4. Charlotte Hornets spread −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  5. Charlotte Hornets +2.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on Novig

    Old PriorDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-season net ratings: Charlotte +4.84, Washington -11.55, a 16.39-point gap before home court.
    • Current five-game net-rating averages are Charlotte -7.0 and Washington -2.2; the short sample reverses only 4.8 points of that baseline gap.
    • Expected starters are listed for both teams, and Charlotte's projected roster still carries the stronger prior-season profile.
    • Dennis Schröder is questionable, while Coby White and Grant Williams are out; the expected lineup is not confirmed.
  6. Under 220.5 total
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on ProphetX

    Stiff Line PairDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Charlotte's current 2026 scoring rates total 214.6 points; 220.5 is 5.9 points higher before the absence adjustment.
    • Coby White is confirmed out; his 2025 Charlotte stint produced 18.6 PPG with 32.4% usage, while expected replacement Sion James is at 4.5 points/36 and 10.5% usage.
    • Reference: SHARP REFERENCE is stale on this board; venue self-reference is the live ProphetX ladder, monotone around 219-221.5.
    • Coby's 2025 Charlotte stint is the absence baseline, not a current-season sample; his true 2026 role could be lower than 18.6 PPG.
Show all 18 picks
  1. Under 220.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    Tip TotalDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total is approximately 203 points: Charlotte lineup pace 97.1 with 94.3 offensive rating, Washington pace 91.98 with 120.7 offensive rating.
    • Coby White, Charlotte's incoming regular guard, is listed out; the expected Sion James starting group supports the under preference.
    • Both starting groups remain labeled expected rather than confirmed; a late lineup change could materially alter pace or shot quality.
  2. Game total over 227.5 pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Split-adjusted projection is 228.8 points versus the live Pinnacle 219.5 main line, a +9.3-point gap.
    • Last 25 home Wizards: 107.8 offensive rating and 103.9 pace; last 25 road Hornets: 118.4 and 98.67.
    • Half-shrunk values are 110.2/102.7 for Washington and 115.4/100.1 for Charlotte, producing the 228.8 projection.
    • The projection is only 1.3 points above the 227.5 rung; historical role-total volatility is about 18.3 points.
  3. Dennis Schröder under 5.5 assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −150 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Schröder averages 3.78 assists across nine current-season games; he stayed under 5.5 in eight.
    • His last five assist totals are 5, 5, 4, 3, and 6, with four unders.
    • The expected starting point-guard role is stable, but recent minutes have generally been 34-plus.
    • Schröder is probable with right-foot inflammation/soreness, not officially confirmed active.
  4. Sion James under 5.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −140 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • James averages 3.9 points across nine games, 1.6 below the Fliff number.
    • As an expected starter over the last five, he scored 5, 5, 0, 3, and 3 points.
    • The lineup is expected rather than confirmed, and the sample covers only nine games.
  5. Washington Wizards spread +1.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model estimates Washington cover probability at 59.5%; conservative stress case remains 56.0%.
    • Washington's season net rating is -2.3 versus Charlotte's -7.3 across five games.
    • Washington owns a 110.2 offensive rating versus Charlotte's 100.4, a 9.8-point efficiency gap per 100 possessions.
    • Both projected starting fives remain expected rather than confirmed; Tre Johnson is questionable and Dennis Schröder is only probable.
  6. Washington Wizards +1.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington's season net rating is -2.3 versus Charlotte's -7.3 across five games, a 5.0-point efficiency gap before home court.
    • Washington's season total is 229.4 versus Charlotte's 209.2; Charlotte also carries a 17.6% turnover rate versus Washington's 13.1%.
    • Only five games of current-season data; the efficiency gap is highly sample-sensitive and the fair margin is uncertain.
  7. Washington Wizards over 1.5-point win
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Washington game-winner YES midpoint is 49.5¢; Washington over 1.5 midpoint is 45.5¢, a 4¢ gap.
    • Washington ladder steps are 45.5¢ to 42.5¢ to 40.5¢, versus the expected roughly 2.5, 3¢ per point.
    • Both quotes are 1¢ wide; Washington over 1.5 traded 97,358 contracts in 24 hours.
    • The missing over-0.5 rung prevents a direct winner-to-first-rung comparison; the 4¢ gap may be legitimate one-point-win probability.
  8. Charlotte Hornets under 211.5 total points
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on ProphetX

    Plus-Money UndersUp 132% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Charlotte pace 100.6 and Washington pace 103.4 over the current L10, both below the 104.6 league mean.
    • Reference: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE only; no current sharp total was used.
    • The 211.5 threshold is below the teams' combined recent average total of 219.3, so normal shooting variance can beat the under.
  9. Game total under 229.5 pointsFavorite
    +39%Won

    Taken at 72¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: expected total is approximately 219.7 points versus the Kalshi 229.5-point rung.
    • Washington's 103.4 season pace and Charlotte's 100.6 pace point to roughly 102.0 possessions; neither side's recent pace is above baseline.
    • Cross-efficiency read: Charlotte offense 100.4 versus Washington defense 112.5, Washington offense 110.2 versus Charlotte defense 107.7.
    • Only five regular-season games inform the pace and efficiency sample; the estimate could be too low.
  10. Washington Wizards spread +1
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Refreshed moneyline implies Washington about 49.1% after two-way normalization; with NBA margin SD around 12, that maps to roughly 52.5% no-loss probability at +1.
    • The +1 spread quote normalizes to about 49.5% against Charlotte -1; the mapped-versus-quoted gap is approximately 3 points.
    • Full 33-rung game spread ladder was read; the +1 rung is locally monotone and the refresh held -101 with qualifying selected-side size.
    • Expected, not confirmed, starters remain the latest lineup state; late news could explain or erase the seam.
  11. Charlotte Hornets to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo DictatorDown 55% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Charlotte averages 100.6 possessions, bottom-2 of 30; Washington is 103.4, only 1.2 below the 104.6 league mean.
    • Charlotte is 3-2 overall; its winning pace is 102.4 possessions (3-game sample) versus 97.85 in two losses.
    • The prior meeting finished Charlotte 110, Washington 103 at a 96.5 pace, a concrete example of Charlotte imposing the slower game.
    • Charlotte imposed a below-league pace in only 1 of 3 games against above-mean-paced opponents; the direct mechanism sample is weak.
  12. Over 216.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, blended forecast is 221.5 points, 5.0 above the 216.5 rung.
    • Projected pace is 102.3 possessions after blending five current regular-season games with prior-season baselines.
    • Washington's current 110.2 offensive rating and Charlotte's 107.7 defensive rating support scoring above this lower rung.
    • Only five current-season regular games per team; the required prior-season blend caps this at LEAN.

Win chance, start to finish

50%WASCHAKickoff
Oct 30Final

Questions

Who won Hornets vs. Wizards?

The Wizards won 95–79 on Friday, Oct 30, 2026.

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