Get app

Bulls vs. CelticsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalTD Garden · Boston
Bulls
111–125Final
Celtics
Score by period
Team1234T
CHI25242537111
BOS44342126125

Top model pick, graded

Won

Chicago Bulls spread +14.5 53¢

Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 7% return this season · 368 picks
Get the next picks first

How the picks did

Models went 13-17 on this game · −19% return

  1. Boston Celtics −14.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −105 on DraftKings

    2 modelsCoaches Corner, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Boston won the 10/26 meeting 134-99; its 119.9 offensive rating and 88.6 defensive rating showed a decisive scheme gap.
    • Joe Mazzulla brings an established 250-101 program against first-year head coach T. Splitter (17-18).
    • The expected lineups are not yet confirmed, so late rotation changes could materially alter the matchup.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Boston owns a +7.1 net rating; Chicago is -14.8, a 21.9-point per-100-possession differential.
    • Recent margins favor Boston by 8.0 points per game versus Chicago at -16.2.
    • Conservative shrink to 56.5% leaves only a +5.8-point edge, barely above the required threshold.
  2. Game total under 235.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    2 modelsFirst Month, Pace Clash
    Why 2 models like it
    First Month
    • Last-season efficiency baseline projects roughly 226 combined points before modest current pace adjustment.
    • Boston averaged 98.3 possessions last season; its current 104.7 pace remains below Chicago's 105.2 last-season pace.
    • Projected starters are expected rather than confirmed; Jalen Smith and Patrick Williams remain questionable.
    Pace Clash
    • 232.0 modeled total: 104.7 possessions × 2.218 combined matchup points per possession.
    • Chicago's 108.9 last-10 pace pulls the 98.3 Celtics toward 104.7 possessions on a 60/40 tempo blend.
    • Expected starters are not confirmed; Chicago has Nic Claxton out and Jalen Smith questionable.
  3. Game total under 234.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsBench Boss, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    Why 2 models like it
    Bench Boss
    • Boston’s current-season pace is 104.7 possessions; its last four were 112.7, 111.8, 95.0 and 99.2.
    • Chicago’s last five pace averaged 110.0, but offensive ratings ranged from 82.4 to 117.6; Boston’s season defense is 107.3.
    • Most likely loss: Chicago’s 110-possession pace and Boston’s 114.3 offensive rating produce another 240-plus total.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • The prior Bulls-Celtics meeting totaled 233, just below this threshold.
    • The 234.5 line is close to the 235.5 sportsbook total; late fouls or overtime create substantial tail risk.
  4. Chicago Bulls spread +14.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  5. Chicago Bulls to winLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +560 on FanDuel

    Road HeistDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 0.4773 Celtics 3-point percentage in the latest head-to-head clears the rule's 0.3900 trigger.
    • 7.075 Boston current-season net rating clears the elite-home gate of 5.0.
    • The 0.4773 matchup value also falls inside the ensemble trigger band, 0.3889, 0.5294.
    • Chicago is 1-4 with a -16.2 recent margin, while Boston is 3-1 at +8.0.
  6. Boston Celtics to winFavorite
    +15%Won

    Taken at 87¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season averages: Boston +12.11 net rating (113.8 offense/101.7 defense), Chicago -4.16; gap +16.27.
    • Home-court and rest adjustment produces an 18.8-point Boston power margin; model win probability is 90.5%.
    • Projected lineups are expected rather than confirmed; Chicago has Nic Claxton and Dailyn Swain out, Boston has Devin Carter out.
Show all 28 picks
  1. Game total under 233.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Novig

    High BarUp 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston and Chicago season scoring averages sum to 233.8 points; the sharp main total is 235.5.
    • Last-10 scoring and season scoring are identical for both teams, offering no sustained recent-efficiency upgrade to the posted high total.
    • Chicago is top-five in pace but only 103.7 offensive rating; Boston is 104.7 pace, so neither team is top-five in both pace and efficiency.
    • The total is only 0.3 points below the combined season PPG average, so the fair estimate is sensitive to distribution assumptions.
  2. Boston Celtics −20.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 35¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston is 4-0 with +8.0 last-10 margin; Chicago is 1-4 with -16.2 last-10 margin.
    • Only four and five regular-season games drive the current ratings; early-season estimates are noisy.
  3. Paul George under 20 points
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston wins by over 12.5 points is quoted at 58.5%, making starter truncation the central matchup signal.
    • George averaged 24.69 minutes in 15+ point games versus 33.44 otherwise.
    • The blowout-weighted minute estimate is about 28.3, materially below his non-blowout baseline.
    • George reached 20 or more in two of three recent non-blowouts, including a 38-point outburst.
  4. Jayson Tatum under 30 points
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston wins by over 12.5 points is quoted at 58.5%; blowout risk clears the brief’s 30% gate.
    • Tatum averaged 31.96 minutes in 15+ point games versus 37.75 otherwise.
    • A 58.5% blowout mix projects roughly 34.4 minutes, below the full-minute baseline.
    • Tatum scored 36 and 40 in two recent non-blowouts; shot-making can overwhelm the minutes haircut.
  5. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +27400

    Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest is confirmed from current schedule/injury data: DET last played Oct. 28, BKN Oct. 27; Chicago and Boston last played Oct. 28.
    • Whole-slip cashing likelihood is about 35% (roughly 57% and 61% by leg); ProphetX quoted +275, above 95% of the singles-product threshold, with $100 max stake. Reference: sharp books; venue self-reference: ProphetX.
    • Most likely DET/BKN loss: Detroit's 103.9 current defensive rating controls Brooklyn and the slower team dictates pace; the over needs 221 points.
  6. Caleb Wilson 20+ points
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on Kalshi

    Usage VacuumDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Claxton absence split: Wilson averages 21.75 points, 35.4 minutes and 19.25 shots across four games without him.
    • Wilson cleared 20+ in three of those four games, including 20+ in each of his last two.
    • The four-game absence split is thin; full last-10 production cleared 20+ only four times.
  7. Jalen Smith 10+ points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Usage VacuumDown 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Claxton absence split: Smith averages 15.0 points, 24.35 minutes and 10.75 shots across four games without him.
    • Smith reached 10+ in all four Claxton-out games; season baseline is 12.33 points in 23.49 minutes.
    • Four-game with/without sample is small and requires shrinkage toward his 12.33-point season rate.
  8. Game total over 235.5
    +88%Won

    Taken at −114 on FanDuel

    Schedule Tax ContrarianUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Estimated total 240, 4.5 points above the current 235.5.
    • Season efficiencies imply a fast, high-scoring environment: Boston 114.3 ORtg and Chicago 118.4 DRtg allowed.
    • Combined season pace is 107.4 possessions; Chicago's shorter rest may worsen defensive resistance.
    • The market has already moved roughly four to five points upward, leaving less value than at the opener.
  9. Game total over 234.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    Tip TotalDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected average pace is 106.25 possessions from the two expected starting-five lineup paces: Chicago 113.5 and Boston 99.0.
    • Expected five-man offensive ratings are 109.2 for Chicago and 118.9 for Boston, producing a 242.4 projected total.
    • Chicago's expected starting five runs 3.5 possessions faster than its 110.0 season pace, clearing the overs lineup gate.
    • Both lineups are expected rather than officially confirmed; a late scratch could materially change pace or shot quality.
  10. Chicago Bulls spread +15.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Ladder SeamDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • INTERNAL COHERENCE; VENUE SELF-REFERENCE: Boston moneyline -700 implies an 87.5% win probability.
    • Using NBA margin SD ~12, that win probability maps to roughly a 13.8-point mean margin and 44.4% Boston cover probability at -15.5.
    • The expected lineups are not confirmed; a late scratch or role change could make the moneyline-to-spread comparison a news artifact.
  11. Game total under 230.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 229.1, 5.9 points below Pinnacle's 235.0 main line.
    • Shrunk 25-game role rates: Bulls road 108.4 ORtg/106.0 pace; Celtics home 112.1 ORtg/102.4 pace.
    • Both-side Kalshi quote is tight and monotone; DraftKings/FanDuel alternate prices also make under 230.5 a live reference market.
    • Early-season role sample is blended with prior games and remains sensitive to October rotations.
  12. Boston Celtics spread −14.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Short BenchUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rotation: nba_player_season_adv gives Boston 9 players at least 15.0 mpg versus Chicago's 8; top-five averages 29.0 versus 28.2.
    • Pace/efficiency context: Boston 104.7 pace and 114.3/107.2 ORtg/DRtg; Chicago 110.0 and 103.7/118.4.
    • Both teams are off a back-to-back, and the one-day rest difference is noise rather than a core fatigue edge.
  13. Chicago Bulls +14.5
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Crowd EchoUp 13% last 7 days
  14. Chicago Bulls team total under 111.5
    +82%Won

    Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Chicago averaged 107.7 points in three road games; road offensive rating was 97.0.
    • Boston allowed 108.7 points per home game, with a 102.3 home defensive rating.
    • Chicago's road eFG was 44.5%; the Bulls scored 99 against Boston in the teams' meeting four days ago.
    • Only three road games and five games overall make the split noisy; model uncertainty is approximately 55%-64%.
  15. Chicago Bulls over 235 total points
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • matchup blend projects approximately 238.1 points, 3.1 above the 235 rung.
    • Pace mismatch: Chicago averages 110.0 possessions and Boston 104.7; blended pace is 107.35.
    • Boston posts 114.3 offensive rating; Chicago allows 118.4 defensive rating, creating a scoring path for the favorite.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups: Jalen Smith and three other Bulls are questionable; Nic Claxton is out.
  16. Game total under 236.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pace: Chicago is 110.0 season/L10 versus Boston 104.7; with both pace deltas at 0.0, Boston's slower profile should dictate roughly 105, 106 possessions.
    • Efficiency: Boston 114.3 ORTG versus Chicago 118.4 DRTG, and Chicago 103.7 ORTG versus Boston 107.2 DRTG; blended output is about 221.8 points per 100 possessions.
    • At a Boston-led 105.5, 106 pace, the projection is approximately 234, 235 points, below the same-rung 236.5 threshold.
    • Jalen Smith is questionable despite an expected starting designation; his absence could materially change Chicago's frontcourt efficiency and rotation.
  17. Jalen Smith over 10.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −103 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Smith cleared 10.5 points in 4 of his last 5 games.
    • His last-five scoring average is 13.4 points despite a 20-minute outing against Boston.
    • Expected lineup lists Smith as a starter, while Boston has allowed Chicago's frontcourt a usable scoring role.
    • The expected lineup is not officially confirmed; the odds feed lists his starter flag as false.
  18. Boston Celtics −14
    0%Push

    Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX

    Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston has two full off-days after Oct. 27; Chicago has one after Oct. 28.
    • The rest differential favors Boston, with neither side in a back-to-back today.
    • Cashing likelihood: 57%; SHARP REFERENCE is Pinnacle -15, used only as a market check.
    • The schedule edge is only one rest day; neither team faces a verified back-to-back or 3-in-4 spot.
  19. Boston Celtics spread −15
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent ratings read: current-season offense/defense and pace, plus home court and the Claxton absence, project Boston by about 14.9 points.
    • Pinnacle is also -15; the ProphetX -15 rung stayed near 49.5%-51.9% implied through the day, not a dust-order spike.
    • Official 2:50 PM report confirms Devin Carter out for Boston and Nic Claxton out for Chicago; no late major availability surprise is priced into this rung.
    • Most likely loss: Boston leads but Chicago gets a late backdoor cover at +15; the projection is essentially on the number.
  20. under 235 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Minutes CapDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Boston's blowout game on Oct. 26 cut expected starters to roughly 16, 28 minutes.
    • The prior Bulls-Celtics meeting ended 134, 99; today's board still prices a large Boston favorite at -14.5.
    • Boston's close-game starter minutes ran materially higher than its 35-point-win rotation, creating a 3+ point lower-total scenario if margin repeats.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups; late scratches or a changed rotation could erase the minutes read.
  21. Game total under 235
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended pace/efficiency estimate is 231.5 points, 3.5 below the 235 rung.
    • Boston's 2026 offense is 114.3 and Chicago's is 103.7; the matchup projects below the market total.
    • Cashing likelihood is 56%, independent of the favorable price; SHARP REFERENCE is Pinnacle under 235 at -108.
    • Expected lineups are not final; Jalen Smith and Patrick Williams remain questionable for Chicago.
  22. Jalen Smith over 7.5 rebounds
    +105%Won

    Taken at +105 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 8.2 rebounds per game over his last five, up from 7.1 season-to-date.
    • Last-five minutes rose to 23.5 from 20.6 season-to-date, with an expected starting role.
    • 12.56 rebounds per 36 minutes and 24.7% defensive-rebound rate support the opportunity.
    • The over hit only 3 of his last 5 games: 11, 6, 3, 13, 8 rebounds.

Win chance, start to finish

50%BOSCHIKickoff
Oct 30Final

Questions

Who won Bulls vs. Celtics?

The Celtics won 125–111 on Friday, Oct 30, 2026.

App Store is a service mark of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries. Apple and the Apple logo are trademarks of Apple Inc. Google Play and the Google Play logo are trademarks of Google LLC.