Updated
FinalMortgage Matchup Center · Phoenix
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | 32 | 39 | 32 | 24 | 127 |
| PHX | 37 | 30 | 26 | 27 | 120 |
Top model pick, graded
WonJalen Green under 22.5 points + rebounds + assists −137
Why Jay Money PrizePicks Matrix likes it: 19.3 PRA average across his last three games is 14.1% below the 22.5 line.
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 8% this season · 638 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 2-10 on this game · −71% return
- Game total under 231.5−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Novig
3 modelsHigh Bar, Pace Pair +1Why 3 models like it
High Bar- Denver's season and last-10 game total average is 224.8; Phoenix's is 233.0; combined average is 228.9, 2.6 below the posted line.
- Pace is moderate: Denver 101.6 (25th), Phoenix 100.6 (28th); neither team is simultaneously top-five in pace and efficiency.
- Only four Denver games and three Phoenix games define both season and last-10 samples; early-season variance is substantial.
Pace Pair- Edge class: PROJECTION, current-season pace is 101.6 DEN / 100.6 PHX; both offenses are 108.3 per 100.
- Simple opponent-adjusted blend projects 228.4 points using DEN 112.2 and PHX 123.0 defensive ratings, 3.1 below 231.5.
- Most likely loss: Phoenix's 123.0 current-season defensive rating turns into a hot Denver/Suns shooting game.
First Month- Last-season cross-rating projection is 228.4 total points before roster adjustment.
- Combined last-season pace was 101.35 possessions; the posted 231.5 still prices elevated scoring.
- Both lineups are expected rather than confirmed; Phoenix has questionable frontcourt availability.
- Devin Booker over 23.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at −111 on FanDuel
Next Man PricedUp 17% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Without Mark Williams: 21 games, Booker averaged 28.95 points on 19.81 FGA.
- With Williams: 43 games, 24.65 points on 18.19 FGA; absence sample adds 1.62 attempts and 4.30 points.
- Latest five eligible games average 27.4 points; the current line is 23.5 and FanDuel is −111.
- Current 2026-27 sample is only three games: 23.0 points and 15.0 FGA, including a three-point outing.
- Phoenix Suns +4.5−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Novig
Old PriorUp 12% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 2025 net ratings: Denver +5.05, Phoenix +1.39; home court trims the neutral gap to roughly 1.5 Denver points.
- Early 2026 net ratings are Denver −3.83 over 4 games and Phoenix −14.77 over 3 games.
- Phoenix +4.5 moved from 56c to 53c; fading the short-form move at a qualifying price.
- Both projected lineups are unconfirmed; Cameron Johnson and Oso Ighodaro remain questionable.
- Game total under 233.5−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Opener LadderUp 10% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 101.1 combined current-season pace from Denver (101.6) and Phoenix (100.6) points to a slower 229-ish projection.
- Efficiency blend projects roughly 228, 229 points: Denver 108.3 ORtg versus Phoenix 123.0 DRtg, Phoenix 108.3 versus Denver 112.2.
- The opening Kalshi rung stayed 231.5/50-50; the 233.5 threshold leaves roughly a 4.5-point cushion over the projection.
- Only four Denver and three Phoenix regular-season games make the efficiency and pace samples fragile.
- Phoenix Suns over 4.5 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 6% last 30 days - Game total under 243.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: 234 points, about 9.5 below the 243.5-point rung.
- Tempo: neither team clearly dictates; Denver 101.6 and Phoenix 100.6 pace, both with 0.0 L10 pace delta.
- Efficiency: Denver 108.3 ORtg versus Phoenix 123.0 DRtg, Phoenix 108.3 ORtg versus Denver 112.2 DRtg; the combined read regresses below the live scoring burst.
- point first quarter and 80 points by Q2 9:02 can continue, leaving little margin under 243.5.
Show all 10 picks
- Game total under 231.5 points−100%Lost
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Projection: expected total 228.2 points from roughly 101.1 possessions; Denver's 101.6 pace and Phoenix's 100.6 both match their L10 baselines, so Denver's slightly faster profile is the likely tempo influence, not a pace-up spot.
- Efficiency: Denver 108.3 ORTG versus Phoenix 123.0 DRTG, and Phoenix 108.3 ORTG versus Denver 112.2 DRTG, blending to about 115.7 and 110.3 points per 100 possessions.
- Availability was cross-checked through the live slate/game board and same-day web reporting; mechanism is pace and efficiency, not rest or back-to-back status, which are not primary drivers here. Band: LEAN.
- Cameron Johnson and Oso Ighodaro remain questionable in the live expected-lineup report, so rotation-changing news can move the efficiency estimate; unresolved availability caps this at LEAN.
- Aaron Gordon over 5.5 total rebounds−100%Lost
Taken at −105 on DraftKings
NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 13% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 6.5 regular-season rebounds per game across four completed games.
- 7.67 rebounds per 36 minutes over 122.0 regular-season minutes.
- 30.5-minute season role; all four regular-season appearances were starts.
- Small four-game regular-season sample; Gordon has one game with only four rebounds.
- Jalen Green under 22.5 points + rebounds + assists+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 11% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 19.3 PRA average across his last three games is 14.1% below the 22.5 line.
- Green has gone under this line in 2 of his 3 current-season games; his only over was 28.
- Phoenix and Denver have posted low recent pace proxies of 100.6 and 101.6 possessions.
- Denver’s 112.2 current-season defensive rating is not a strong under matchup and can allow efficient scoring.
- Nikola Jokic under 47.5 points + rebounds + assists+73%Won
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 11% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 41.5 PRA average across his last four games is 12.6% below the 47.5 line.
- Jokic has stayed under this number in 3 of his last 4 games; the lone over was 60.
- Both teams’ recent pace proxies are low: Denver 101.6 and Phoenix 100.6 possessions per game.
- Phoenix’s current 123.0 defensive rating is the league’s worst in the sampled table, creating an efficiency-upside path.
Questions
Who won Nuggets vs. Suns?
The Nuggets won 127-120 on Friday, Oct 30, 2026.