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Knicks vs. 76ersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalXfinity Mobile Arena · Philadelphia
Knicks
93–98Final
76ers
Score by period
Team1234T
NYK2123242593
PHI2924242198

Top model pick, graded

Won

Philadelphia 76ers −1.5 43¢

Why Power Gap likes it: Projected margin is Philadelphia +4.7: net-rating blend gives +2.70, plus 2.0 home court.

Power GapUp 12% return this season · 66 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 25-3 on this game · +77% return

  1. Philadelphia 76ers to win4 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    4 modelsTempo Boss, Game-Time Doubt +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Tempo Boss
    • PHI pace is 109.2 possessions in wins versus 102.1 in losses; NYK is 105.0 versus 103.2.
    • Against fast opponents, PHI adds 2.17 possessions above its season pace; NYK adds 1.17.
    • Only five games underpin each team's tempo split; early-season variance is substantial.
    Game-Time Doubt
    • Brown is questionable with left-knee soreness; I haircut the 65% generic questionable play rate to 55% for a new injury.
    • Conservative scenario lines: Philadelphia -4.5 with Brown, Philadelphia +1.5 without; the 55/45 blend is Philadelphia -1.8 and 55.0% ML.
    • Brown could sit, and the new knee issue makes the 55% play estimate uncertain.
    Shootaround Whisper
    • 8/8 regular-season games played: Jaylen Brown has consistently suited up despite the expected lineup still listing him as a starter.
    • The first official report has Brown questionable with left-knee soreness; no other star is questionable in this matchup.
    • Brown can still sit despite his 8-for-8 regular-season availability pattern; that is the single most likely loss path.
    Tempo Dictator
    • Philadelphia's 107.8 pace ranks 4th of 30; New York's 104.0 is 0.6 below the 104.6 league mean.
    • Philadelphia is 4-1, with 109.2 possessions in wins versus 102.1 in its loss; New York is 2-3, with 105.0 in wins versus 103.2 in losses.
    • Jaylen Brown remains questionable; the starting lineup is expected, not confirmed, as of the 3:05 AM lineup update.
  2. Game total under 228.54 models agree
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

    4 modelsPace Pair, Late Scratch Tax +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Pace Pair
    • 218.9 projected points from 105.9 blended pace and opponent-adjusted ratings, 9.6 below the rung.
    • Both teams' season and L5 pace/rating samples point below the market: NYK 104.0 pace, PHI 107.8; defensive ratings 105.4 and 99.76.
    • Both starting groups remain projected rather than confirmed; Towns is probable, while Embiid and LeBron remain expected.
    Late Scratch Tax
    • Philadelphia scored 113.7 points per 48 Brown-on minutes versus 101.9 Brown-off; the five-game on/off sample is noisy but points to a lower 76ers offensive baseline.
    • Model total: 223.5, the full 2.5-point maximum downward adjustment from Pinnacle's live 226.0 anchor after Brown's absence and replacement minutes.
    • The 2026-27 sample is only five games; Brown on/off scoring and plus-minus splits are highly unstable.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Recent five-game totals average 219.4 for New York and 218.2 for Philadelphia.
    • Season profiles show modest efficiency and 104.0/107.8 possessions per game, below this threshold's implied scoring.
    • Only five regular-season games per team make the early-season efficiency sample noisy.
    Shot Clock
    • Band LEAN; edge class PROJECTION: Philadelphia likely dictates tempo at 107.8 possessions versus New York's 104.0.
    • PHI expected offense is ~104.1/100; NYK expected offense is ~102.7/100 against the opponent defenses.
    • Only five games are in the sample; both teams have pace_l10_delta of 0.0, so no recent tempo acceleration is proven.
  3. Philadelphia 76ers +3.53 models agree
    +87%Won

    Taken at −115 on DraftKings

    3 modelsCoaches Corner, Schedule Tax Contrarian +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Coaches Corner
    • Three rest days for Philadelphia versus New York on a back-to-back after 110.8 possessions at Chicago.
    • Philadelphia won the last meeting 106-100, limiting New York to a 93.6 offensive rating.
    • Both projected starting fives are expected rather than confirmed; Embiid, LeBron, and Dean Wade create lineup-usage uncertainty.
    Schedule Tax Contrarian
    • Fresh DK line is Knicks -3.5; blended fair spread is approximately Philadelphia -1, clearing the 2-point threshold.
    • Philadelphia’s current five-game net rating is +2.9 versus New York’s +0.2, reversing last season’s strength gap.
    • Last season still favors New York: +6.4 net rating versus Philadelphia’s -0.2 across 82-plus games.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Season-to-date Philadelphia net rating is +2.9 versus New York's +0.2.
    • Philadelphia is 4-1 with a +3.4 average margin over its last five; New York is 2-3 at +0.2.
    • Philadelphia has Jaylen Brown and several reserves listed out; the expected lineup is not confirmed.
  4. Game under 225.5 total points2 models agree
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    2 modelsSchedule Tax Contrarian, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Schedule Tax Contrarian
    • Current five-game scoring averages total 220.6 points, 4.9 below the fresh DK total of 225.5.
    • Recent efficiency projects near 221 points: Knicks 105.7 offensive rating versus Philadelphia’s 99.8 defense, and Philadelphia 102.7 versus New York’s 105.4.
    • Last season’s offenses were much stronger: New York 116.9 and Philadelphia 112.5 offensive rating.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • 220.6 combined season points per game, 4.9 below the 225.5 line.
    • Current-season efficiency: Philadelphia 102.7 offensive rating; New York 105.7; both defenses rate better than league-average scoring context.
    • The total already moved from 228.5 on the captured prior board to 225.5 at live books; late information may be under-modeled.
  5. Philadelphia 76ers +1.52 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsFree Points, Sharp Wallet Dog
    Why 2 models like it
    Free Points
    • Model: Philadelphia wins outright 50%; cover probability is 54% at +1.5, clearing the 46% straight-up gate.
    • Philadelphia's season-to-date net rating is +2.94 versus New York's +0.24 through five games, a +2.70 differential.
    • Jaylen Brown remains questionable and the projected Philadelphia lineup is not confirmed; his absence is the largest unpriced lineup risk.
    Sharp Wallet Dog
    • Rest-adjusted model makes Philadelphia +1.5 a 52% cover: Philadelphia’s current-season net rating is +2.94 versus New York’s +1.24.
    • Philadelphia has three rest days; New York’s last game came in a back-to-back and 3-in-4 stretch.
    • Both teams’ projected lineups remain expected, not confirmed; Karl-Anthony Towns is only probable and late availability could move the fair number.
  6. New York Knicks to win2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsLadder Seam, Late Scratch Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    Ladder Seam
    • 4.2-point gap: Knicks ML -138 implies 58.0%; Knicks -2 at -125 implies roughly 62.0% ML under margin SD 12.
    • The -2 rung is monotone against adjacent Knicks -1.5 and -2.5 prices; both quotes held on the 3:19 PM refresh.
    • Expected rather than confirmed starters; Karl-Anthony Towns remains probable, so late news could explain the seam.
    Late Scratch Ledger
    • Brown was upgraded from doubtful to official Out at 3:00 PDT; ProphetX moved only 0.35 points toward Philadelphia afterward.
    • Brown on/off: Philadelphia was +42 in 181.6 minutes with him and -25 in 58.4 without, a +0.66 raw points/minute split.
    • Brown's 58.4 off-minutes sample is only five games; raw plus-minus is noisy and not possession-normalized.
Show all 17 picks
  1. Philadelphia 76ers −1.5
    +133%Won

    Taken at 43¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected margin is Philadelphia +4.7: net-rating blend gives +2.70, plus 2.0 home court.
    • Equal rest: both teams last played October 28; neither has a back-to-back edge.
    • At -1.5, a 12-point margin standard deviation converts the projection to a 60.5% cover probability.
    • Philadelphia's Jaylen Brown is questionable with left-knee soreness; the expected lineup is not confirmed.
  2. Game total under 226.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current five-game pace is 104.0 for New York and 107.8 for Philadelphia; the blended pace is modest.
    • Current offensive/defensive efficiency blends to roughly 220, 222 projected points, 4.5, 6.5 below 226.5.
    • Team total profiles are 219.4 for New York and 218.2 for Philadelphia through five regular-season games.
    • Jaylen Brown is still questionable; a full-strength Philadelphia lineup could lift the offense materially.
  3. Philadelphia 76ers moneyline +142
    +144%Won

    Taken at 41¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Knicks used Brunson 35.3, Hart 35.7 and Anunoby 30.8 minutes on the second night of a back-to-back.
    • New York has one rest day after a 3-in-4 sequence; Philadelphia has two rest days and is home, favoring Nurse's fresher rotation.
    • Philadelphia is 4-1 with a +3.4 margin over its last five; New York is 2-3 with a +0.2 margin.
    • Most likely loss: Brunson's half-court creation overcomes the Knicks' rest disadvantage and Philadelphia's expected starters lose the matchup.
  4. Philadelphia 76ers spread +3.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Home Dog HoldUp 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season net ratings: Philadelphia -0.8 versus New York -8.5, a 7.7-point home-team differential before home court.
    • Philadelphia is 4-1 with a +3.4 average margin over its last five; New York is 2-3 at +0.2.
    • Both teams last played October 28, so Philadelphia has no rest disadvantage; New York has no rest edge.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups leave late scratches possible; Towns is only probable and Philadelphia's core remains unconfirmed.
  5. Under 226.5 total
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Novig

    Minutes CapUp 89% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • LeBron James and Joel Embiid are both reported around 30 minutes to start 2026-27, capping Philadelphia's top-end scoring minutes.
    • Knicks totals stayed under 226.5 in 4 of 5 games; 76ers totals also stayed under in 4 of 5.
    • Those five-game samples average 219.4 points for Knicks games and 218.2 for 76ers games.
    • The report says around 30 minutes and covers the season opening, not a hard game-specific cap.
  6. Game total under 226.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Pace MismatchUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total: 218 points from a 105.5-possession pace and current offensive/defensive efficiency.
    • The Knicks averaged 104.0 possessions over five games; Philadelphia averaged 107.8, favoring the slower matchup tempo.
    • Current five-game eFG averages are modest: New York 49.8%, Philadelphia 49.0%; no clear hot-shooting overshoot supports the total.
    • All projected starters are expected rather than confirmed; Karl-Anthony Towns is probable with a wrist sprain.
  7. Game total under 225.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Novig

    Cheap SideUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Regular-season last-10 scoring averages sum to 219.5 points before matchup adjustment.
    • Regular-season last-10 pace averages 99.1 Knicks and 103.6 76ers possessions.
    • New York is on a back-to-back; Philadelphia has three rest days, supporting a modest downward rest adjustment.
    • Only five current-season regular games per team; the other five observations are from 2025-26 regular season.
  8. Under 226.5 total points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Minutes CapDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New York's five-game totals average 219.4; Philadelphia's average 218.2, both below this rung.
    • Starter-minute pattern is early-season volatile: Towns averaged 31.0 minutes and LeBron 33.3 over the sampled games; prior B2B games showed reduced veteran usage.
    • Both teams last played Wednesday, not a current second-night back-to-back; normal rest could preserve starter minutes.
  9. Joel Embiid under 4.5 assists
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −170 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 baseline: Embiid averaged 3.85 assists and stayed under 4.5 in 27 of 39 games (69.2%).
    • He has averaged 35.6 minutes across four current-season games, supporting a stable opportunity baseline.
    • Fliff -170 implies 63.0%; my 67% estimate implies roughly 6.5% expected value.
    • The current-season sample is only 4 games: he went under in 2, with a 4.75-assist average.
  10. Philadelphia 76ers spread +2.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Back-to-Back DebtUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • New York plays its third game in four days after Oct. 27 and Oct. 28; Philadelphia does not.
    • Same-spot context: New York is 1-0, +5.4 net rating in 2026; last season it was 14-10, +5.9 over 24 games.
    • Pinnacle currently shows New York -1.5 (-112) / Philadelphia +1.5 (+100); ProphetX adds a half-point cushion.
    • Most likely loss: Jaylen Brown is ruled out or limited; he is questionable with left-knee soreness, erasing Philadelphia's rested-side talent edge.
  11. Under 225.5 total points
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The two teams' season scoring averages combine for 220.6 points before this game.
    • Season points allowed combine for 217.0, supporting a lower baseline than 225.5.
    • Philadelphia's season pace is 107.8 possessions and New York's is 104.0.
    • New York's latest game totaled 260 points, showing immediate shootout upside.

Win chance, start to finish

50%PHINYKKickoff
Oct 30Final

Questions

Who won Knicks vs. 76ers?

The 76ers won 98–93 on Friday, Oct 30, 2026.

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