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Hawks vs. PelicansFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSmoothie King Center · New Orleans
Hawks
99–121Final
Pelicans
Score by period
Team1234T
ATL1830262599
NOP35282929121

Top model pick, graded

Won

Under 239.5 total 51¢

Why Drift likes it: Model 54.2% under: current-season ORTG/DRTG blend and 106.7 blended pace project roughly 234 total points.

DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 23-5 on this game · +68% return

  1. Game total under 239.54 models agree
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    4 modelsPrice Cap, Cheap Side +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Price Cap
    • Blended pace is 105.7 possessions, down from the raw current-season team average because early-season history is mixed with 2025-26.
    • Blended offense/defense ratings project approximately 236, 238 combined points.
    • The early-season sample is only five or six regular-season games per team, so ratings and pace are noisy.
    Cheap Side
    • L10 pace averages 107.25 possessions, while blended matchup efficiency projects roughly 237 total points before rest adjustment.
    • Both teams played October 29 back-to-backs; the same short-rest setup supports a modest downward rest adjustment.
    • Atlanta and New Orleans are both above the 103.9 league L10 pace mean, creating a live high-tempo loss path.
    Tired Legs
    • Sharp main total is 240.5; the brief's double-fatigue adjustment makes the fair total 239.0.
    • Atlanta and New Orleans both played October 28 and 29, then meet October 31: each is in a 3-in-4.
    • Jalen Johnson is listed doubtful and both starting groups are only expected, so late availability can shift the total materially.
    Shot Clock
    • Projected total 237.1: 2.4 points below Kalshi's 239.5 same-rung threshold.
    • New Orleans dictates the pace anchor at 108.8 possessions versus Atlanta's 105.7; both pace-L10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Only five-to-six regular-season games support the pace and efficiency sample.
  2. New Orleans Pelicans spread +4.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Short Bench
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Atlanta current-season net rating is +4.417; New Orleans is -2.200, with pace 105.7 and 108.8 possessions respectively.
    • A 3.0-point home-court adjustment produces an Atlanta margin estimate of +3.6, below the market's -4.5 spread.
    • Both teams' current-season samples are only 6 and 5 games; efficiency ratings are noisy.
    Short Bench
    • Pace: Atlanta 105.7 versus New Orleans 108.8 possessions; Atlanta's slower profile gives the home dog a tempo-control path.
    • There is no rest differential: both teams have one intervening day, so the schedule gate supplies no fatigue edge.
  3. Game total under 241.52 models agree
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    2 modelsHigh Bar, Shot Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    High Bar
    • Atlanta and New Orleans average 119.2 and 119.4 points; their combined 238.6 is below the 241.5 rung.
    • Combined eFG is 54.2% versus the league's 53.3%, providing a shooting-regression target.
    • The sample is only six Atlanta games and five New Orleans games; season and L10 figures are thin.
    Shot Clock
    • PACE/efficiency projection: about 236.5 points versus the exact Kalshi 241.5-point rung.
    • Pelicans dictate tempo slightly: recent pace 108.84 versus 108.8 season; Atlanta recent 104.44 versus 105.7 season.
    • Early-season sample is only 5 Pelicans and 6 Hawks games; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
  4. Atlanta Hawks −4.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsLate Scratch, Late Scratch Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    Late Scratch
    • Dejounte Murray changed to Out at 2:30 PM PT in the official NBA report; he averaged 17.8 points and 6.0 assists.
    • New Orleans was +23 with Murray off versus -34 on across the current on/off sample; heavily regressed, that supports a 2, 2.5 point Atlanta upgrade.
    • The on/off sample is only five games and its raw 57-point plus-minus gap is unstable.
    Late Scratch Ledger
    • fair Atlanta number is approximately -6.0; the current -4.5 has not crossed that estimate.
    • Jordan Poole is confirmed out; his 2026 on/off plus-minus is +24 with him versus -35 without him.
    • Dejounte Murray's small current on/off sample is contradictory: New Orleans was +23 with him off versus -34 with him on.
  5. Under 239.5 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 54.2% under: current-season ORTG/DRTG blend and 106.7 blended pace project roughly 234 total points.
    • Atlanta: 114.1 ORTG, 109.3 DRTG, 105.8 pace across 11 games; New Orleans: 107.2 ORTG, 108.3 DRTG, 107.5 pace across 9.
    • Most likely loss: efficient shooting from Atlanta's 114.1-rated offense pushes this high total above 239.5.
  6. Total under 239.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta averages 105.8 possessions; New Orleans averages 107.5, a restrained tempo relative to 239.5.
    • Atlanta’s current offensive rating is 114.1, but New Orleans is only 107.2; the combined efficiency profile does not support this elevated number.
    • Mosley’s defensive identity is built around switch-heavy, physical coverage; Snyder’s Hawks have recently played below 106 possessions despite a stated pace-and-ball-movement emphasis.
    • New Orleans scored 132 in its last game and Atlanta scored 114; either offense can invalidate the pace read with early shooting.
Show all 22 picks
  1. Game under 241.5 total points
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Pace MismatchUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent 10-game pace averages 105.2 ATL and 108.0 NOP; slower-team bias projects roughly 105.5 possessions.
    • Blended recent offensive/defensive efficiencies project approximately 232 total points, 9.5 below the Kalshi rung.
    • Sportsbook totals moved roughly 2, 3 points upward from their openers, while Kalshi’s 241.5 rung held; recent three-point conversion proxies are modest.
    • Both starting groups remain expected rather than officially confirmed; late rotation news could change the projection.
  2. Total under 240.5 (Dejounte Murray estimated −12.8 points; sharp drop 0.0)
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Missing Star TotalDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Murray is New Orleans' No. 2 scorer at 17.75 points and adds 6.0 assists per game.
    • Jeremiah Fears gains 6.15 points per game without Murray; his usage share rises 1.72 percentage points.
    • Pinnacle total moved 240.0 to 240.5, so the sharp line has dropped 0.0 points.
    • Murray appeared on the early projected-out lineup, so the market may already have anticipated the official 2:30 PM report.
  3. Zion Williamson over 19.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Kalshi

    Shaded OverDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of Zion's 5 current-season games cleared 20 points: 22, 25, 17, 23, 22.
    • He has played 30.7, 33.0 minutes in those five games, supporting a stable expected-minute baseline.
    • Atlanta's recent defensive rating is 109.3; the 4.5-point spread implies a competitive game without blowout-minute risk.
    • The broader 10-game sample is only 4-for-9 among games with minutes, with one zero-minute appearance.
  4. Over 241.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    Tip TotalDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total is 263.2: 109.9 average lineup pace × combined 2.395 points per possession.
    • Atlanta expected five posts 100.1 pace and 1.152 PPP across 82.93 current-season minutes.
    • New Orleans expected five posts 119.7 pace and 1.243 PPP across 14.43 minutes.
    • Both five-man groups are expected, not officially confirmed, so a late starter change can invalidate the pace thesis.
  5. Game total under 233.5
    +178%Won

    Taken at 36¢ on Kalshi

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-25 venue-role blend, shrunk 50%: Atlanta road 112.9 ORtg/103.6 pace; New Orleans home 111.9/103.4.
    • Model total is 232.7, 7.8 points below the 240.5 sharp main line.
    • Both starting lineups are expected rather than officially confirmed; late rotation changes can lift scoring.
  6. Under 240.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Crowd EchoUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair probability 57.5%; team ratings and pace center near 237 total points.
    • Atlanta averages 233.7 and New Orleans 241.0 total points through six/five games.
    • New Orleans owns a 241.0 season total and Zion Williamson can create free throws and pace.
  7. Jalen Johnson under 22.5 points
    +77%Won

    Taken at −130 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7 of his last 8 games stayed under 22.5 points; only one reached 26.
    • He averages 19.4 points across those eight games and 19.0 over his last five.
    • Minutes are stable: 34.5 per game over the last five, supporting a repeatable baseline.
    • New Orleans has allowed 121.6 points per game this season, creating an unfavorable scoring-environment risk.
  8. Atlanta Hawks under 239.5 total
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season total means are Atlanta 236.5 (11 games) and New Orleans 232.0 (9).
    • Their blended 234.3 projection sits 5.2 points below the 239.5 market.
    • Atlanta's last-five game totals average 229; 12 of 20 team-game observations finished below 239.5.
    • Early-season samples are small: 11 Hawks and 9 Pelicans games, with duplicated team-game observations.
  9. Game total under 240.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on FanDuel

    +EV Volume HandicapperUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total 237.2 from current offensive/defensive ratings at a 107.3-possession pace.
    • Current scoring averages imply 238.6 points; last-season combined baseline was 234.0.
    • Stress mean to 238.5 still yields 55.0%: +5.2 points over the market anchor.
    • Total rose from roughly 239.5, 240.0 to 240.5, signaling some late market discovery toward scoring.
  10. Game under 240.5 total
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • BETALAB total estimate 236.5; under probability 55.5%, fair price 55.5c.
    • Season efficiency: Atlanta 112.8 ORtg/108.4 DRtg; New Orleans 109.4/111.6, with blended pace near 107 possessions.
    • The five most recent totals average 235.0 points across these teams, below the 240.5 market.
    • Expected lineups are not confirmed; Zion Williamson, Trey Murphy III and Jalen Johnson remain load-bearing assumptions.
  11. Atlanta Hawks spread −4.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
  12. Game total under 241.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection is approximately 237 points, 4.5 below Kalshi's 241.5 center rung.
    • Season-to-date pace is 105.7 Atlanta and 108.8 New Orleans; adjusted efficiencies point below the market.
    • Atlanta's 233.7 and New Orleans' 241.0 average game totals blend to 237.4.
    • New Orleans averages 241.0 points per game total and has exceeded the league median in 80% of games.
  13. Atlanta Hawks under 239.5 total points
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Atlanta averaged 105.7 possessions over its last six; New Orleans averaged 108.8 over its last five; blended pace is 107.3.
    • Season ratings at that pace point to roughly 237 total points: Atlanta 112.8 offense/108.4 defense, New Orleans 109.4/111.6.
    • Rotation read: both coaches used four reserves for at least 15 minutes last game, supporting sustained defensive legs rather than a star-heavy track meet.
    • Most likely loss: New Orleans repeats its 132-point, 64.7% effective-field-goal outing and Atlanta converts the game into a high-possession shootout.
  14. New Orleans Pelicans wins by over 3.5 pointsLong shot
    +233%Won

    Taken at 30¢ on Kalshi

    Margin NotchUp 80% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 31.7% estimate: 37.1% Pelicans win probability × 85.6% historical chance of a margin at least 4.
    • Spread cross-check: FanDuel shows Atlanta -4.5 (-108), while Pinnacle shows Atlanta -4 (+103), confirming the same matchup structure.
    • Kalshi spread history held the 4.5-point line through the last hour without a one-point move.
    • The estimated edge is only about 1.7 percentage points; ordinary NBA margin variance can erase it.
  15. Atlanta Hawks @ New Orleans Pelicans under 239.5 total points
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on BetMGM

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model blend projects approximately 237 total points from current offensive and defensive ratings.
    • Atlanta averages 105.7 possessions and New Orleans 108.8; the market total assumes sustained extreme pace.
    • The 239.5 line requires 52.4% to break even at -110; my win estimate is 55%.
    • Both teams average roughly 119 points per game, so hot shooting can clear 240 quickly.
  16. Game total under 241
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended adjusted estimate is 236.2 points, 4.8 below the 241 rung.
    • Estimated pace is 105.7 possessions; the 2025-26 baselines were 104.6 for Atlanta and 103.7 for New Orleans.
    • Current totals are 233.7 for Atlanta and 241.0 for New Orleans, while the prior-season team totals were 234.5 and 235.5.
    • Expected, not confirmed, starting lineups remain the main late-news risk; a rotation change could alter the projection.

Win chance, start to finish

50%NOPATLKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Hawks vs. Pelicans?

The Pelicans won 121–99 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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