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Timberwolves vs. SpursFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFrost Bank Center · San Antonio
Timberwolves
111–121Final
Spurs
Score by period
Team1234T
MIN28332723111
SAS34263328121

Top model pick, graded

Won

Devin Vassell under 15 points 68¢

Why Blowout Minutes likes it: Vassell has stayed under 15 points in 8 of 9 regular-season games, averaging 11.7 points.

Blowout MinutesUp 10% return this season · 56 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 11-18 on this game · −33% return

  1. San Antonio Spurs −12.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket

    2 modelsSport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails, Late Scratch
    Why 2 models like it
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • Minnesota is missing Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Donte DiVincenzo; San Antonio's projected core includes Wembanyama and Fox.
    • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; late availability or rotation news can move a 12.5-point margin.
    Late Scratch
    • Rudy Gobert changed from questionable to officially out at 3:45 PM PDT, within the 90-minute brief window.
    • Gobert's six-game on/off raw plus-minus rates are +37.9 per 100 minutes on court versus +18.5 off.
    • The on/off estimate is extremely noisy: only six games and roughly 293 Gobert minutes.
  2. Game total under 228.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsShot Clock, Missing Star Total
    Why 2 models like it
    Shot Clock
    • no clear tempo dictator; Spurs 105.3 pace, Minnesota 106.1, both pace_l10_delta 0.0.
    • Efficiency read: Minnesota 114.7 ORtg vs San Antonio 104.4 DRtg; San Antonio 110.8 ORtg vs Minnesota 100.2 DRtg.
    • Gobert and Castle remain Questionable in the official warehouse report; the web report does not list either, so availability is unresolved.
    Missing Star Total
    • Anthony Edwards is officially out at 3:15 PM PDT; he led Minnesota at 33.25 PPG and added 3.5 APG.
    • Pinnacle moved from 226.5 to 229.0; sharp total has dropped 0.0 points since morning and actually rose 2.5.
    • Anthony Edwards' sample is only four games, and replacement estimates are noisy this early in the season.
  3. Devin Vassell under 15 pointsFavoriteHigh conviction
    +47%Won

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Vassell has stayed under 15 points in 8 of 9 regular-season games, averaging 11.7 points.
    • San Antonio's >12.5-point spread rung is 49.5%; Vassell was under 15 in all four current-season blowouts.
    • In the 15+ margin sample, his minutes fell to 28.3 versus 33.8 in non-blowouts.
    • Nine-game scoring sample is thin, and one 21-point outing shows the line can lose quickly.
  4. Game total under 229.5High conviction
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Short BenchUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • MIN is on a back-to-back with 0 rest days after 10/30; SAS is not, with 2 rest days after 10/28 (nba_team_schedule_to_date).
    • MIN's five starters last night averaged 28.6 minutes; Edwards and Gobert are officially out, reducing creation and interior efficiency.
    • Expected MIN starters average 26.2 season minutes versus 31.9 for SAS; the depleted, tired side carries the under pressure.
    • SAS owns 110.8 season ORtg, while MIN's defensive rating is 100.2; efficient home offense can clear the number.
  5. Game total under 234.5 pointsFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended current pace and efficiency projects roughly 226 points: Minnesota 106.1 pace, 114.7 ORTG, 100.2 DRTG; San Antonio 105.3, 110.8, 104.4.
    • Three-point attempt rates are elevated but measured: Minnesota 43.8%, San Antonio 40.5%; free-throw rates are 0.261 and 0.227.
    • Current regular-season team totals are 228.2 for Minnesota and 226.6 for San Antonio before a conservative early-season adjustment.
    • Both lineups are projected rather than officially confirmed; Anthony Edwards is listed out for Minnesota and Tobias Harris out for San Antonio.
  6. Game total under 224.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Novig

    First MonthUp 12% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota's 2026 scoring average is 121.5, but expected starter Anthony Edwards is out after averaging 26.5 points in the season data.
    • Expected rather than confirmed lineups create rotation uncertainty; LaMelo Ball replaces Edwards in the projected starting group.
Show all 27 picks
  1. Jaden McDaniels over 16.5 points
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on FanDuel

    Next Man PricedUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anthony Edwards is officially Out; McDaniels is an expected starter and priced for this game.
    • 18 games without Edwards: McDaniels averaged 18.94 points, 14.17 FGA, 33.46 minutes; 61 with Edwards: 13.85, 10.34, 31.29.
    • The current-season two-game Edwards-out sample is stronger: 21.0 points, 16.5 FGA, 33.95 minutes.
    • Only two current-season games without Edwards; the other 16 use last season's supporting cast, including a thinner comparability case.
  2. Dylan Harper under 20 pointsFavorite
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi

    Blowout MinutesUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Harper is under 20 in 7 of 9 regular-season games, averaging 16.1 points and 17.2 over his last five.
    • The 49.5% blowout probability implies meaningful truncation; his blowout minutes average 25.5 versus 29.5 otherwise.
    • Harper stayed under 20 in all five current-season games below a 15-point margin.
    • The blowout split is only four games, and Harper reached exactly 20 once; Kalshi's 20+ contract counts 20 as a win.
  3. Under 227.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on Novig

    Quiet StarUp 40% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Anthony Edwards is confirmed out at 3:20 PM; he leads Minnesota at 33.25 PPG and 33.67 MPG.
    • Edwards scores 0.988 points/minute versus a 0.605 replacement proxy; roughly 12.9 points lost before a small pace bump.
    • The sharp total opened 228.5; Novig's 227.5 is only one point lower, below the 2-point pass threshold.
    • Minnesota's starting order is unconfirmed; Gobert is projected despite being officially out, making replacement minutes uncertain.
  4. San Antonio Spurs −13
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Back-to-Back DebtUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, San Antonio is rested after playing Oct. 28; Minnesota played Oct. 30 and now travels from Minneapolis for a back-to-back and third game in four nights.
    • Minnesota's back-to-back sample: 2026 is 0-1 with a -1.8 net rating; 2025 was 8-7 with a +3.0 net rating (small current-season sample).
    • Minnesota's third-game-in-four sample: 2026 is 0-2 at -3.2 net; 2025 was 14-5 at +9.4 net, so the fatigue signal is real but noisy.
    • The current-season fatigue samples are only one back-to-back game and two third-game-in-four games; last season's results were materially better.
  5. Game total over 224.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on Novig

    Cheap SideUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rest-adjusted total model is 237.3 points, giving an 82% fair probability over 224.5 after a thin-sample haircut.
    • Minnesota averages 106.1 possessions and San Antonio 105.3, both above the 103.9 league pace mean.
    • Projected, not confirmed, lineups have Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo out for Minnesota and Tobias Harris out for San Antonio.
  6. Under 229 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Stiff Line PairDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pace reference: Minnesota 106.1 and San Antonio 105.3 possessions per game; my replacement-adjusted projection is 224.5, 4.5 points below this rung.
    • Stephon Castle remains questionable, so the Spurs' creation and pace could change before tip.
  7. San Antonio Spurs to winFavorite
    +20%Won

    Taken at 83¢ on Tailgate

    Rest LedgerUp 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Spot score 3: San Antonio has 2 rest days versus Minnesota's 0.
    • Minnesota plays its third game in four nights: Oct. 28, Oct. 30, and Oct. 31.
    • Projected lineups are not official; Anthony Edwards is listed out and late availability news can move this number.
  8. Minnesota Timberwolves +12.5
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Sharp Wallet DogDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair cover probability: 58.0%; current-season net rating is Minnesota +14.4 versus San Antonio +6.4.
    • Pinnacle is -12 at -108 on Minnesota; devigged reference is 50.5% at +12, about 51.8% after deriving the half-point +12.5 rung.
    • Anthony Edwards is out and Rudy Gobert remains questionable; a worse Minnesota frontcourt status cuts directly against this cover.
  9. Jaden McDaniels over 5.5 total rebounds
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 39 rebounds in six 2026 regular-season games: 6.5 per game, clearing 5.5 every time.
    • 194.5 minutes and 39 rebounds support 7.219 rebounds per 36; his 32.4-minute average gives a 6.5-rebound arithmetic baseline.
    • Minnesota has produced 464 team rebound chances across five tracked games; FanDuel -113 is better than Pinnacle's -127 over quote.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineup status leaves a late role or availability change possible.
  10. Game under 228.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Crowd EchoUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle-derived under reference is about 49.1% at 229; 228.5 is a half-point lower, so the model still clears the reference comfortably.
    • Minnesota is without Anthony Edwards, Rudy Gobert and Donte DiVincenzo; expected replacements materially reduce proven two-way depth.
    • Stephon Castle remains questionable with a migraine; his final status could change pace, defense and Spurs shot creation.
  11. San Antonio Spurs wins by over 12.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Rest TaxDown 103% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Spurs have two full rest days; Minnesota played Oct. 30 and is in a 3-in-4 plus 4-in-6 stretch.
    • Adjusted margin starts at the 12.5-point market center, adds roughly 1.5 rest points, and projects near 14.0.
    • The 12.5 rung has over 10,300 contracts traded, a 2¢ quote, and sits in a monotone adjacent ladder.
    • Lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; a late change to Wembanyama, Fox, or another starter matters materially.
  12. San Antonio Spurs −12
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Rest Edge PairsDown 67% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Antonio has a two-day calendar rest gap: last played Oct. 28; Minnesota played Oct. 30.
    • Historical 2020-25 sample: rest_days at least 3 against an opponent on a back-to-back averaged +3.68 points and won 60.4% (442 games).
    • Spurs current net rating is +6.4 through five games; the expected Wembanyama-Fox-Vassell-Castle-Harper core is intact.
    • Minnesota owns a +14.42 current net rating and a +12.8 last-five margin, so the rest edge is fighting a stronger early-season profile.
  13. LaMelo Ball under 19.5 points
    +80%Won

    Taken at −125 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 12.9 season PPG and 14.0 over his last five, both below 19.5.
    • LaMelo cleared 19.5 in only 1 of his last 6 completed games.
    • Without Anthony Edwards, LaMelo averages 16.0 points and 28.4 minutes across two games.
    • The expected lineup is not confirmed; role and minutes could change before tip.
  14. Game under 228.5 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Second UnitDown 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back after playing 10/30; San Antonio last played 10/28.
    • Season pace is moderate and closely matched: Minnesota 106.1 possessions, San Antonio 105.3; no fast-fast setup supports an over.
    • MIN used 10 players for at least 15 minutes last night, with only 142.9 top-five minutes; the B2B still raises late-game execution risk despite usable depth.
    • Minnesota's expected lineup is unconfirmed; Rudy Gobert is questionable, while San Antonio's Stephon Castle is also questionable.
  15. Minnesota Timberwolves over 12.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season net rating is Minnesota +14.4 versus San Antonio +6.4; ratings-only baseline makes +12.5 generous.
    • Injury-adjusted model mean is San Antonio -8.5, roughly four points inside the traded spread.
    • Recent form supports Minnesota: +12.8 L5 margin; San Antonio is 3-2 with +6.6 L5 margin.
    • Minnesota is on a back-to-back after a 127-101 win, and Edwards, Gobert, and DiVincenzo are officially out.
  16. Game total under 230.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: 227.3 expected points, 3.2 below the 230.5 Kalshi rung.
    • Tempo is nearly neutral: Minnesota 106.1 pace and San Antonio 105.3; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Minnesota has the slight tempo lead, but neither side shows a recent push; this is an efficiency-led under, not a schedule spot.
    • Rudy Gobert and Stephon Castle are both officially questionable at the 5:00 PM NBA report; unresolved rotation news caps this at LEAN.
  17. Minnesota Timberwolves spread +12.5
    +92%Won

    Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

    Opener GapDown 36% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • prior/current net-rating blend makes San Antonio roughly a 3.2-point favorite after +2.0 home court and +1.5 rest/B2B adjustment.
    • Current inputs: Minnesota +14.42 net over 6 games; San Antonio +6.40 over 5. Prior-season net was Minnesota +3.03 and San Antonio +7.87 over 82/83 games; prior blend is used because this season is under 10 games.
    • The ProphetX main rung is San Antonio -12.5 / Minnesota +12.5; the 9.3-point gap versus my fair margin is the projection edge.
    • Minnesota is on a back-to-back after playing October 30; the schedule haircut may still be too small.
  18. Game under 229.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −108 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The Timberwolves' six recent game totals average 228.2 points.
    • San Antonio's five recent game totals average 226.6 points.
    • The 229.5 line sits above both teams' recent combined scoring environments.
    • San Antonio has rest while Minnesota does not, which can create a late defensive breakdown.
  19. Victor Wembanyama over 23.5 points
    +88%Won

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Wembanyama averaged 25.0 points over his five recent completed games.
    • Minnesota's projected frontcourt is without Rudy Gobert, removing its primary interior defender.
    • Wembanyama scored 36, 29, and 25 in three of his last four completed games.
    • The recent sample is only five games and includes a 12-point result.
  20. San Antonio Spurs −11.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • San Antonio has three days between games; Minnesota is on the second night of a back-to-back after playing 10/30.
    • Minnesota's recent log already carries a 3-in-4 flag, while San Antonio last played 10/28; the schedule spot favors the rested home side.
    • the spread number has held at San Antonio -12.5 from the opening capture; it has not moved away from this rest-based read.
    • Most likely loss: Minnesota's transition offense and shotmaking keep the game within 11 despite the back-to-back.
  21. Game total over 225.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, blended pace/efficiency read projects approximately 229 points, 3.5 above the 225.5 rung.
    • Current totals: Minnesota 228.2 over 6 games; San Antonio 226.6 over 5; prior-season totals were 232.6 and 231.4.
    • Projected pace is approximately 105.7 possessions; expected starters include Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama, with no questionable status in the live injury table.
    • Early-season gate fails: Minnesota has 6 current-season games and San Antonio 5, so the prior-season blend caps this at LEAN.

Win chance, start to finish

50%SASMINKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Timberwolves vs. Spurs?

The Spurs won 121–111 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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