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Thunder vs. RocketsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalToyota Center · Houston
Thunder
98–119Final
Rockets
Score by period
Team1234T
OKC2625242398
HOU35273027119

Top model pick, graded

Won

Game total under 219.5 50¢

Why Short Bench likes it: Schedule gate from nba_team_schedule_to_date: Houston last played 10/30, current B2B with 0 intervening rest; OKC last played 10/28, B2B false with 2 rest days.

Short BenchDown 10% this season · 46 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 18-16 on this game · +34% return

  1. Oklahoma City Thunder to win6 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 44¢ on Polymarket US

    6 modelsRested Road Dog, Short Bench +4
    Why 6 models like it
    Rested Road Dog
    • Rest gate qualifies: Houston played October 30; Oklahoma City last played October 28 and is not on a back-to-back.
    • Market spread is Houston -2.5; fair margin is Houston +1.0, only 1.5 points from the posted spread.
    • Both lineups remain expected rather than confirmed; a late scratch could erase the rest-adjusted edge.
    Short Bench
    • Schedule edge: Houston played 10/30 and is on a 0-rest back-to-back; OKC last played 10/28 and has 2 rest days, from nba_team_form_adv.last_game_date plus nba_team_schedule_to_date.
    • Houston's last-game top five averaged 35.0 minutes versus 27.9 for OKC; OKC also used 8 players at least 17 minutes versus Houston's 7.
    • Houston's 119.2 season ORTG and 10.83 net rating exceed OKC's 105.6 ORTG and 3.36 net rating.
    Report Lag
    • Fred VanVleet was newly ruled out at 10:18 AM PDT; Reed Sheppard was downgraded from questionable to out at 10:33.
    • Their 25.7 and 19.1 early-season minutes average implies roughly a 2.2-point combined availability hit after replacement discount.
    • Oklahoma City already has Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace out; this is not a clean injury imbalance.
    Second Unit
    • nba_game date plus nba_team_schedule_to_date: Houston last played 10/30, a tonight B2B; OKC last played 10/28, two off-days.
    • Last-five nba_team_game_enriched possessions are nearly identical: Houston 102.3, Oklahoma City 102.3; rest favors OKC's tempo control.
    • Houston's injury report was not submitted; expected starters remain unconfirmed despite the schedule edge.
  2. Oklahoma City Thunder +2.53 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    3 modelsOld Prior, BETALAB 6.0 +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Old Prior
    • Houston's current 10.83 net rating is up 5.59 from last season's 5.245, while OKC is down from 10.78 to 3.36.
    • The five-game form gap is likely overstating Houston: the market now makes HOU 2.5-point favorites despite OKC's stronger 2025 regular-season rating.
    • OKC's expected lineup is not confirmed and lists Chet Holmgren among the outs.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Houston is on a back-to-back after a 111-116 loss at Dallas; OKC has two rest days.
    • Season net ratings favor Houston 10.8 to 3.4, but that strength is already reflected in the home -2.5 price.
    • OKC's projected starters are not confirmed, and Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are out; late lineup change is load-bearing.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • Polymarket US offers the matching executable contract at 51¢; the global mark is about 49.5¢.
    • Trade history is truncated, so an unobserved hedge or offsetting activity cannot be ruled out completely.
  3. Houston Rockets spread −2.52 models agree
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Crowd Echo
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Houston owns a +10.83 current-season net rating versus Oklahoma City's +3.36 across six and five regular-season games.
    • Houston's 119.2 ORTG versus Oklahoma City's 105.6 supports the home-side rating; Houston's five starters are confirmed.
    • Most likely loss: Oklahoma City's extra rest since October 28 offsets Houston's efficiency edge and produces a one-possession game or outright upset.
    Crowd Echo
    • Model makes Houston -2.5 a 57% cover; the current-season net-rating gap is Houston +10.83 versus OKC +3.36.
    • Only five OKC and six Houston games support the current-season rating sample.
  4. Houston Rockets to win2 models agree
    +79%Won

    Taken at 56¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsTempo Boss, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Boss
    • Houston transition offense: 16.6% of possessions at 1.404 PPP; OKC: 13.9% at 1.000 PPP.
    • Against <100-opponent-possession / ≥100 games, Houston ran 103.5 / 101.2 possessions; OKC ran 98.15 / 105.0.
    • Alperen Sengun is questionable and both projected lineups are unconfirmed; a late availability change can erase the model edge.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Houston owns a +10.8 season net rating versus Oklahoma City's +3.4 through six and five games.
    • Houston's 119.2 L10 offensive rating is 13.6 points better than Oklahoma City's 105.6.
    • Houston is playing its second night in a row after a 111-116 loss at Dallas.
  5. Oklahoma City Thunder spread +2.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsSecond Unit, Rest Edge Pairs
    Why 2 models like it
    Second Unit
    • nba_team_form_adv.last_game_date shows Houston played 10/30 and Oklahoma City 10/28: current-tip rest is Houston 0 days/B2B versus OKC 2 days/no B2B.
    • Season and L10 pace are modest: Houston 101.6 possessions, Oklahoma City 102.3; the edge is schedule, not an overclaimed tempo mismatch.
    • Oklahoma City starters are still expected rather than confirmed; the web injury check confirms six Thunder outs, including Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
    Rest Edge Pairs
    • OKC has two days off; Houston played Friday in Dallas and returns for a home back-to-back.
    • OKC's five-game net rating averages +3.4 despite the existing absences; its expected rotation has SGA plus four regular starters.
    • Houston's six-game net rating is +10.8; the rest signal is modest against the better early-season team.
  6. Game total under 219.5High conviction
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Short BenchUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Schedule gate from nba_team_schedule_to_date: Houston last played 10/30, current B2B with 0 intervening rest; OKC last played 10/28, B2B false with 2 rest days.
    • Pace: nba_team_form_adv shows Houston 101.6 and OKC 102.3 possessions season/L10; both profiles are slow.
    • Last-game rotation: Houston’s top five averaged 35.0 minutes; OKC’s top five averaged 27.9, supporting late fatigue and scoring suppression.
    • Houston’s 119.2 offensive rating versus OKC’s 105.6 can overcome fatigue if the home offense remains efficient.
Show all 24 picks
  1. Houston Rockets wins by over 20.5 pointsLong shot
    +1150%Won

    Taken at 8¢ on Kalshi

    Margin TailUp 116% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's current-season net rating is +10.83 versus Oklahoma City's +3.36, a 7.47-point gap.
    • Adding 2.5 points for Houston home court gives a 10.0-point baseline before availability adjustment.
    • OKC's expected lineup lists Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Caruso, Wallace and six others out; Houston's expected core includes Durant and Sengun.
    • Houston also has multiple players out, including VanVleet and Adams, and its lineup remains expected rather than confirmed.
  2. Houston Rockets −6.5
    +163%Won

    Taken at 38¢ on Novig

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's season and L10 net rating is +10.83 versus Oklahoma City's +3.36, a +7.47-point baseline gap.
    • Adding 2.0 home court, a modest Houston back-to-back deduction, and the larger OKC injury burden projects Houston +10.5.
    • Normal-margin conversion at 12 points standard deviation gives 63.0% fair cover probability for -6.5.
    • Both starting groups are listed as expected rather than confirmed; late lineup changes could materially alter the projection.
  3. Game total under 218.5 points
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 215-point projection: current efficiency matchup implies roughly 216 before a conservative early-season pace adjustment.
    • Houston averages 101.6 possessions; Oklahoma City averages 102.3, both below the 103.9 league pace.
    • Houston's 108.3 defensive rating and Oklahoma City's 102.3 defensive rating suppress the matchup despite Houston's 119.2 offense.
    • Alperen Sengun remains questionable; his availability materially changes Houston's offense and interior matchup.
  4. Houston Rockets −2.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on DraftKings

    Coaches CornerDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's confirmed starting five contrasts with Oklahoma City's expected lineup and eight listed absences.
    • Udoka can deploy Amen Thompson and Marcus Smart at the point of attack against an OKC offense concentrated around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
    • Houston's recent five-game margin is +9.6 points versus +3.6 for Oklahoma City.
    • Houston is on a back-to-back; Kevin Durant and Amen Thompson played 37 and 39 minutes Friday.
  5. Jared McCain under 14.5 points
    +94%Won

    Taken at −106 on FanDuel

    Next Man PricedUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 64 games without Jalen Williams: McCain averaged 8.17 points, 7.03 FGA, and 16.67 minutes.
    • Current-season last five: 11.0 points and 10.0 FGA; McCain cleared 14.5 in only 2 of 5.
    • Jalen Williams is officially Out at 3:15 PM; McCain is a priced participant and projected starter without an injury designation.
    • The OKC starting five remains expected rather than confirmed, and six absences could consolidate McCain's minutes.
  6. Alperen Sengun over 19.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on Novig

    Shaded PropUp 39% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 19.5 is at or below Sengun's 20-point last-10 median.
    • He is a confirmed Houston starter; his four active recent games produced 23, 29, 17 and 29 points on 29.9, 37.2 minutes.
    • The recent active scoring sample is only four games; the last two entries were 0-minute appearances.
  7. Houston Rockets spread −3
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Steam CoolerUp 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Pinnacle moved Houston from -4.0 at 1:42am to -2.0 at 2:55pm, a 2.0-point move.
    • 10/31 10:00am NBA report listed Fred VanVleet OUT for knee management; Marcus Smart is the expected replacement.
    • FVV averaged 13.0 points and 6.4 assists in 30.45 minutes; Smart's Houston sample is 7.7 and 2.3 in 21.75 minutes.
    • Most likely loss: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander attacks Houston's thinner guard rotation and OKC wins by four or more.
  8. Game over 216.5 total points
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston offense 119.2 vs OKC defense 102.3; OKC offense 105.6 vs Houston defense 108.3.
    • Pace is nearly even, 101.6 Houston and 102.3 OKC; no schedule-based driver is used, only pace and efficiency.
    • Early samples are only 5 OKC and 6 Houston games; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0, so there is no strong pace-mismatch signal.
  9. Amen Thompson over 14.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi

    Shaded OverDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gate cleared: confirmed starter in a close-game spread market (-2.5, under eight points).
    • Last 10: 7 of 10 cleared 14.5; his current regular-season sample is 6 of 6.
    • Minutes rose to 35.12 over his last five versus 31.64 season-to-date.
    • Oklahoma City's five-game defensive-rating average is about 102.3, a difficult matchup.
  10. Under 219.5 total
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    Minutes CapDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Six Oklahoma City rotation pieces are confirmed out: Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace, Alex Caruso, Nikola Topic and Thomas Sorber.
    • Replacement-heavy OKC scored 96 on 99.1 possessions last game (96.9 offensive rating); fair total is 217.5, a two-point move below the 219.5 sharp anchor.
    • Houston has Kevin Durant and Alperen Sengun confirmed, and its last-five scoring average is 119.6 points.
  11. Houston Rockets game winner
    +75%Won

    Taken at 57¢ on Kalshi

    Tempo BossDown 15% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.5-point spread clears the close-game gate (maximum allowed: 4).
    • Houston pace split: 102.8 possessions versus fast opponents, 96.1 versus slow; Oklahoma City moves only 1.7.
    • Houston's last-10 efficiency margin is +10.83, ahead of Oklahoma City's +3.36.
    • Current-season efficiency samples are only six Houston and five Oklahoma City games.
  12. Oklahoma City Thunder spread +4
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 58¢ on ProphetX

    Late Scratch LedgerDown 21% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • the 4:00pm injury report confirmed Fred VanVleet and Steven Adams out for Houston; Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams were out for Oklahoma City.
    • Fred's current-season on/off is +16.2 points per 48 for Houston; Chet and Jalen's combined samples show no positive on/off lift for Oklahoma City.
    • The board moved Houston from -4.5 to -2.5, a 2-point move toward OKC; my replacement read is roughly 4 points toward OKC, leaving fair value near pick'em.
    • Houston's confirmed Durant-Sengun frontcourt can attack the rim and glass without Chet; Hartenstein must absorb the replacement minutes.
  13. Alperen Sengun over 18.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −113 on DraftKings

    THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 26.01 current-season points per 36; the 18.5 line is 7.51 points lower.
    • Sengun scored over 18.5 in 3 of 4 current-season games played, averaging 24.5 points.
    • He is a confirmed starter at 4:31 PM PDT, with 29.93, 37.18 minutes in those four games.
    • Sengun logged zero minutes in Houston's two immediately preceding games; current confirmation reduces but does not erase availability risk.
  14. Alperen Sengun over 33.5 points-rebounds-assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 37.6 PRA across his last five active games versus 33.5: 12.2% above the line.
    • His six active current-season games average 37.3 PRA, 11.3% above the projection.
    • Houston's 118.2 offensive rating and OKC's 104.6-possession pace support broad stat accumulation.
    • OKC's 105.9 defensive rating ranks seventh, a meaningful matchup resistance.
  15. Alperen Sengun over 5.5 assists
    +73%Won

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7.2 assists across six active 2026 games versus a 5.5 line: 30.9% above.
    • 6.6 assists in his last five active games: 20.0% above the projection.
    • Sengun is listed as a confirmed Houston starter at 3:55 PM PDT.
    • OKC's 105.9 defensive rating ranks seventh in the league and can suppress efficiency.
  16. Houston Rockets wins by over 3.5 points
    +117%Won

    Taken at 46¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 2.5-to-3.5 rung drops 4c, wider than the brief's expected 2.5, 3c middle-step value.
    • The 3.5 rung is near the market's median margin and remains monotone across the ladder.
    • The 4c step may reflect a genuine margin-distribution shape rather than a mispriced rung.
  17. Under 218 total
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Plus-Money UndersUp 132% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Houston's last-10 pace is 101.6 and Oklahoma City's is 102.3, both below the 104.1 league mean.
    • Pinnacle's main total is 219.5; the venue offers the slower-game position one-and-a-half points lower.
    • Expected, not confirmed, starting groups create meaningful late-availability uncertainty.
  18. Over 220 game total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 223.5 projected total, 3.5 points above the 220 rung.
    • Both current pace samples are near 102 possessions; scoring efficiency remains the driver rather than a pace mismatch.
    • Houston current 119.2 offensive rating and Oklahoma City 102.3 defensive rating support elevated Houston scoring.
    • Current-season samples are only Houston 6 games and Oklahoma City 5, requiring a prior-season blend and LEAN sizing.

Win chance, start to finish

50%HOUOKCKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Thunder vs. Rockets?

The Rockets won 119–98 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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