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76ers vs. HornetsFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSpectrum Center · Charlotte
76ers
109–104Final
Hornets
Score by period
Team1234T
PHI27302032109
CHA37172921104

Top model pick, graded

Won

Philadelphia 76ers −1.5 48¢

Why Power Gap likes it: Philadelphia net rating is +3.35 versus Charlotte's -8.73; the 12.08-point team gap is identical in season and L10 samples.

Power GapUp 12% return this season · 66 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 13-10 on this game · +7% return

  1. Philadelphia 76ers to win4 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    4 modelsTempo Boss, Quantitative +EV Analyst +2
    Why 4 models like it
    Tempo Boss
    • PHI controls the faster baseline: 105.0 possessions versus Charlotte's 100.5.
    • PHI's win/loss tempo split is 105.5/102.1; Charlotte's is 102.4/98.7.
    • Only six regular-season games support the tempo splits; variance is substantial.
    Quantitative +EV Analyst
    • Season net-rating gap is Philadelphia +3.4 versus Charlotte -8.7: 12.1 points per 100 possessions.
    • Philadelphia is 4-1 in its last five; Charlotte is 2-3 with a -11.8 recent margin.
    • Jaylen Brown is questionable; his availability is not yet confirmed.
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Philadelphia owns a +3.4 season net rating versus Charlotte’s -8.7, a 12.1-point per-100-possession gap.
    • Philadelphia is 5-1 with a +3.7 recent scoring margin; Charlotte is 3-3 with a -8.7 recent margin.
    • Brown’s official status remained questionable in the warehouse, so a late reversal would materially reduce Philadelphia’s edge.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Philadelphia is 5-1 with a +3.7 average margin over its last six; Charlotte is 3-3 at -8.7.
    • Season net rating is Philadelphia +3.4 versus Charlotte -8.7, a 12.1-point efficiency gap.
    • Jaylen Brown is questionable, while Joel Embiid and LeBron James are out; the expected lineup is not confirmed.
  2. Charlotte Hornets to win3 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 46¢ on ProphetX

    3 modelsShort Bench, Second Unit +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Short Bench
    • Both teams are on a back-to-back: nba_team_schedule_to_date rows show Philadelphia and Charlotte played 10/30; 0 intervening rest days tonight.
    • Charlotte's 100.5 pace versus Philadelphia's 105.0 can compress possessions; the home side has the stronger rotation cushion.
    • Both teams share the back-to-back, so there is no rest differential to exploit.
    Second Unit
    • Both teams played October 30: nba_game dates imply tonight is a back-to-back with 0 rest days for each.
    • Six-game nba_team_game_enriched averages show Charlotte at 100.5 possessions versus Philadelphia at 105.0; the slower home team can control tempo.
    • There is no direct rest differential: both sides are on the second night of a back-to-back.
    Shootaround Whisper
    • Edge class: PROJECTION, Embiid is Questionable (rest) after 33 minutes Friday, and Philadelphia is playing the second night of a back-to-back.
    • Availability pattern: across 17 Philadelphia second legs in the warehouse sample, Embiid played 3, LeBron James 1, and Jaylen Brown 1.
    • All three questionable statuses can change before tip; the report is not final and this is sized as a half-unit lean.
  3. Philadelphia 76ers −1.52 models agree
    +108%Won

    Taken at 48¢ on Novig

    2 modelsPower Gap, +EV Volume Handicapper
    Why 2 models like it
    Power Gap
    • Philadelphia net rating is +3.35 versus Charlotte's -8.73; the 12.08-point team gap is identical in season and L10 samples.
    • After subtracting 2.0 points for Charlotte home court, the projected Philadelphia margin is +10.1; rest is even.
    • Jaylen Brown is questionable with left patellar tendinopathy despite appearing in the expected starting five; a late scratch would materially lower Philadelphia's projection.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • +12.1 net-rating differential: Philadelphia +3.4, Charlotte -8.7 per 100 possessions.
    • Philadelphia is 5-1 with a +3.7 recent margin; Charlotte is 3-3 at -8.7.
    • Jaylen Brown remains questionable and the expected lineup is not confirmed.
  4. Game total under 215.5 points2 models agree
    +100%Won

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsOpener Ladder, Sequel Slump
    Why 2 models like it
    Opener Ladder
    • Projected total near 208-209 from a 102.8 combined pace and blended efficiencies.
    • Philadelphia averages 103.5 offense / 100.2 defense; Charlotte averages 96.8 offense / 105.5 defense.
    • Only six regular-season games inform each team's efficiency and pace estimates.
    Sequel Slump
    • Both teams played Friday; Philadelphia starters logged Maxey 37.62, Edgecombe 35.83 and James 34.25 minutes, while Charlotte's Miller played 36.67.
    • Both teams traveled into this matchup: Philadelphia went NYK to Charlotte; Charlotte went Washington to Charlotte.
    • Embiid and LeBron are questionable for rest, and Brown is also questionable; expected lineups are not confirmed.
  5. under 211.5 total points2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsMinutes Cap, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    Minutes Cap
    • Gate cleared: both teams are on the second night of a back-to-back after playing October 30.
    • Joel Embiid and LeBron James are confirmed out; together they supplied 20.7% of Philadelphia's last-10 points.
    • Jaylen Brown remains questionable; he supplied 14.7% of Philadelphia's last-10 points, making the final rotation uncertain.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Philadelphia and Charlotte's season scoring baselines combine for 206.0 points, 5.5 below the 211.5 market total.
    • Charlotte averages only 97.3 points and owns a 96.8 offensive rating through six games.
    • Philadelphia produced a 243-point game in its latest five, showing meaningful scoring-tail risk.
  6. Charlotte Hornets +1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on Polymarket US

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
Show all 15 picks
  1. Charlotte Hornets NO on winning by over 1.5 points
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    Margin IdentityUp 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Charlotte's winner contract midpoint is 48.5¢, while its over-1.5 rung midpoint is only 47.5¢: a 1¢ step.
    • Philadelphia's analogous winner-to-over-1.5 step is 3.5¢ (51.5¢ to 48¢), exposing the internal ladder seam.
    • Charlotte's next steps are 3¢ (1.5 to 2.5) and 3.5¢ (2.5 to 3.5), supporting a roughly 2.5, 3¢ middle-step baseline.
    • The 1¢ winner-to-1.5-point step may reflect a genuine margin distribution rather than a stale or misaligned quote.
  2. Under 215.5
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Second NightUp 93% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model total 212.5, 3.0 points below the 215.5 sharp-book number.
    • Both teams played Friday: PHI beat NYK 98-93; CHA lost at WAS 79-95.
    • Friday workload was heavy: PHI Maxey 37.6m, Edgecombe 35.8m, James 34.3m, Embiid 33.2m; CHA Trae 38.4m, Miller 36.7m, Davis 34.3m.
    • Historical B2B eFG did not fall: CHA was +1.0 percentage point and PHI +0.4 points versus rested games.
  3. Philadelphia 76ers @ Charlotte Hornets under 212.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Schedule Tax ContrarianUp 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected environment is roughly 208, 209 points, about 4 points below the 212.5 market total.
    • Philadelphia season: 103.5 ORtg, 100.2 DRtg; Charlotte: 96.8 ORtg, 105.5 DRtg through six games.
    • Season possessions average 105.0 for Philadelphia and 100.5 for Charlotte; both teams played Friday, supporting a lower-efficiency back-to-back environment.
    • The market already moved seven points toward the under, leaving a thinner edge than the opening number offered.
  4. Tyrese Maxey 4+ rebounds
    +59%Won

    Taken at 63¢ on Kalshi

    Next Man UpUp 56% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 of 5 recent games cleared 4 rebounds; recent average is 4.2 versus 3.67 season-to-date.
    • 37.11 recent minutes per game versus 32.45 season baseline clears the +4-minute role-change gate.
    • Joel Embiid and LeBron James are officially OUT on the 12:10 PM report, opening frontcourt rebound opportunity.
    • The exact recent sample is only five games; one 3-rebound result already shows the threshold's variance.
  5. Under 212 total
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Both Tired UnderDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • recent six-game scores total 206.0; conservative projection 208.5, 3.5 below the 212 rung.
    • Both teams played Friday; the zero-rest spot is present, with replacement-heavy expected rotations.
    • Five listed players are out, including Embiid, James, White, Williams and Knueppel; Brown remains questionable.
    • Zero-rest sample is only one game per team; Charlotte's zero-rest ORtg was 109.5 versus 94.2 normally.
  6. Philadelphia 76ers −1
    +96%Won

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: Philadelphia -1.5 after the current injury report, within 0.5 points of the deep rung or better.
    • Pinnacle also shows Philadelphia -1; the exact ProphetX rung has repeated live quotes, not a single dust order.
    • Jaylen Brown is still questionable and the starting order remains unconfirmed; his absence would materially weaken Philadelphia.
  7. VJ Edgecombe under 16.5 points
    +83%Won

    Taken at −120 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season baseline is 12.5 points; last-five average is 11.6 against a 16.5 line.
    • He stayed under 16.5 in 4 of 5 recent played games: 13, 8, 17, 11, 9 points.
    • Recent role is stable: 32.6 minutes per game over the last five and an expected starting spot.
    • VJ Edgecombe is a rookie with a small early-season sample; one hot shooting game can erase the cushion.
  8. Game under 212.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Recent scored averages total 204.0 points across each team's last five games (PHI 109.2, CHA 94.8).
    • Season scoring averages total 206.0; Charlotte is -8.7 net rating versus Philadelphia +3.4 through six games.
    • Both teams are on the second leg of back-to-backs, supporting a pace/efficiency downgrade rather than an offensive boost.
    • Only six games of current-season data; recent offensive efficiency is noisy and Charlotte can regress upward from 94.8 points per game.
  9. Game total under 211.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection: expected total is approximately 209 points versus the Kalshi 211.5-point rung.
    • Philadelphia should dictate modestly: 105.0 possessions season/L10 versus Charlotte's 100.5; both pace L10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Efficiency read: Philadelphia offense 103.5 versus Charlotte defense 105.5; Charlotte offense 96.77 versus Philadelphia defense 100.2.
    • Jaylen Brown remains questionable after averaging 34.3 minutes in his latest game; the expected lineup is not confirmed.

Win chance, start to finish

50%CHAPHIKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won 76ers vs. Hornets?

The 76ers won 109–104 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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