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Trail Blazers vs. JazzFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDelta Center · Salt Lake City
Trail Blazers
112–90Final
Jazz
Score by period
Team1234T
POR27322924112
UTA1824222690

Top model pick, graded

Won

Portland Trail Blazers −8.5 −110

Why Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board Scanner likes it: Net rating gap is 16.0 points per 100 possessions: Portland +8.5, Utah -7.5.

Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 16% return this season · 85 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 10-8 on this game · +4% return

  1. Game total under 231.52 models agree
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    2 modelsHigh Bar, Shot Clock
    Why 2 models like it
    High Bar
    • Portland pace is 104.4, rank 15; Utah pace is 103.9, rank 16, neither is top-five pace.
    • Portland is 2nd in offensive rating at 117.7, but Utah is 20th at 108.3; the matchup is not two elite offenses.
    • Portland's 117.7 offensive rating ranks 2nd and could reflect genuine early-season improvement rather than shooting luck.
    Shot Clock
    • Portland 117.7 ORTG versus Utah 115.8 DRTG, and Utah 108.3 ORTG versus Portland 109.1 DRTG, favor a lower combined efficiency.
    • Utah is the slight tempo dictator: its latest 107.4 possessions exceeded Portland's 105.4, although pace_l10_delta is 0.0 for both.
    • Markkanen could play and restore Utah scoring; his unresolved status caps this at LEAN.
  2. Game total over 233.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    2 modelsPrice Cap, Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    Why 2 models like it
    Price Cap
    • Model mean 235.8 points from early-season and 2025-26 blended ratings and pace.
    • Projected blended pace is 104.5 possessions; Portland's current offense averages 117.7 rating.
    • Lauri Markkanen is questionable on an expected Utah lineup; his absence could reduce Utah's scoring materially.
    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet Tails
    • Portland is 3-1 with 122.8 points per game; Utah is 1-4 and allows 120.2 points per game.
    • Both lineups remain expected, with Portland and Utah carrying multiple listed outs; actual rotation news can change pace and efficiency.
  3. Portland Trail Blazers to winFavorite2 models agree
    +35%Won

    Taken at 74¢ on Polymarket US

    2 modelsCrowd Echo, BETALAB 6.0
    Why 2 models like it
    Crowd Echo
    • Model 78%; Portland +16.05 net-rating differential (8.55 vs -7.50).
    • Portland averages 122.8 points; Utah allows 120.2; current starters are listed active.
    • Four- and five-game samples are thin; the rating differential may overstate true strength.
    BETALAB 6.0
    • Portland: +8.5 season net rating versus Utah: -7.5, a 16-point efficiency gap.
    • Portland is 3-1 with +8.8 recent margin; Utah is 1-4 with -7.8.
    • Markkanen could be cleared, materially improving Utah's offense and win probability.
  4. Portland Trail Blazers −7.52 models agree
    +89%Won

    Taken at −112 on DraftKings

    2 models+EV Volume Handicapper, Snapp Decision of the Day
    Why 2 models like it
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Model baseline gives Portland a 65% cover chance; conservative stress case remains 58%.
    • DraftKings offers -7.5 while the broader board is centered at -8.5.
    • Both samples are tiny: Portland has four regular-season games and Utah five.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Portland is 3-1 with an +8.8 recent margin; Utah is 1-4 with a -7.8 margin.
    • Season net-rating gap is 16.0 points per 100 possessions before home-court adjustment.
    • Portland's sample is only four games and includes a 41-point win over Phoenix.
  5. Portland Trail Blazers wins by over 24.5 pointsLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 9¢ on Kalshi

    Margin TailUp 116% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Portland ranks fifth in current net rating at +8.55; Utah is -7.50, a 16.05-point gap.
    • Away adjustment and absences produce an estimated Portland margin near 14.5; 12-point SD implies 20% over 24.5.
    • Utah has Jaren Jackson Jr. and Jusuf Nurkic out; Lauri Markkanen remains questionable.
    • Markkanen could play, materially narrowing the estimated margin.
  6. Portland Trail Blazers −8.5
    +91%Won

    Taken at −110 on FanDuel

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Net rating gap is 16.0 points per 100 possessions: Portland +8.5, Utah -7.5.
    • Portland is 3-1 with a +8.8 recent margin; Utah is 1-4 with a -7.8 recent margin.
    • Multi-book steam moved Portland from -6.5 to -8.5, confirming the fundamental direction.
    • Lauri Markkanen is questionable and both lineups remain expected, not confirmed.
Show all 14 picks
  1. Game total under 233.5
    +85%Won

    Taken at 54¢ on Novig

    Quiet StarUp 44% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Jaren Jackson Jr. is confirmed out and ranked Utah's second-leading scorer at 16.25 points per game.
    • Jackson's 0.62 points per minute versus Jaxson Hayes' 0.30 implies roughly 8.3 points lost over 26 minutes.
    • A modest bench-pace bump reduces the estimated net loss to about 6 points, still below the market total.
    • Lauri Markkanen remains questionable, and the starting-five order is not confirmed.
  2. Utah Jazz +7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Kalshi

    Dog RungsDown 27% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Kalshi's Portland-over ladder is monotone; the 7.5 rung has a 1¢ spread and 3,508 contracts traded.
    • Portland is short-handed beyond its expected starters, with Ja Morant, Shaedon Sharpe and multiple reserves out or questionable.
    • Utah's top two scorers by current-season points, Keyonte George and Ace Bailey, are in the expected lineup.
    • Both starting groups remain projected rather than officially confirmed; Lauri Markkanen is questionable.
  3. Damian Lillard under 4.5 assists
    +115%Won

    Taken at +115 on Fliff

    NFL Sharp EdgeDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 6 of 7 games he played stayed under 4.5 assists; played-game average is 3.1.
    • Season average is 2.75 assists across eight games, below the Fliff threshold.
    • Expected starter with a documented role; Fliff offers plus money while Pinnacle lists a higher 5.5 line at -168 under.
    • Recent played minutes rose toward 29-32, creating more assist opportunities than his season 23.3-minute average.
  4. Total points over 233.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    Bench BossDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • both teams have at least two rest days; no back-to-back rotation drag is expected.
    • Portland and Utah are averaging 104.4 and 103.9 possessions; their combined 234.7 total profile sits above 233.5.
    • Rotation evidence: Portland starters logged roughly 30-33 minutes in the last two; Utah's core reached 26-40 minutes.
    • Most likely loss: Utah controls the half court after an early lead, or Portland's offense repeats its 103-point outing.
  5. Portland Trail Blazers −6.5
    +104%Won

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    Altitude LedgerUp 31% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Raw fair margin is about Portland -12.0: +8.55 net rating versus Utah -7.5, minus home court and an estimated 3.0 travel/altitude cost.
    • Pinnacle's same -6.5 line devigs to 51.7% (-114/+101); the exchange contract is the identical rung, not a derived line.
    • Portland has one rest day after a home game; Utah has two rest days, making the scheduled Salt Lake City altitude spot the thesis.
    • Both projected lineups are last-game, not confirmed; Ja Morant is out and Lauri Markkanen remains questionable.
  6. Utah Jazz +8.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    Tired Chalk DogDown 47% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Gate: Portland's 104.4 pace plus projected absences of Ja Morant and Shaedon Sharpe reduce rotation depth for a compressed second half if Portland leads by 10+.
    • Favorite rest: Portland has two days since its Oct. 29 game, not a back-to-back; the edge relies on the pace/bench-compression gate only.
    • Only one qualifying gate applies: Portland is rested, and the compression read is an inference rather than a confirmed rotation plan.
  7. Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz game total over 232.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo ClockDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • blended opponent-adjusted pace/efficiency projection is 236 points, 3.5 above the 232.5 rung.
    • Current regular-season samples show 104.4 Portland possessions and 103.9 Utah possessions per game; expected rotations support normal pace.
    • Pinnacle shows over 232 at -105, but that is a different rung; venue self-reference offers the usable 232.5 price.
    • Lauri Markkanen is questionable; sitting could reduce the projection by more than 2 points and invalidate the over edge.
  8. Portland Trail Blazers @ Utah Jazz over 232.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Season scoring averages combine to 235.2 points per game, 2.7 above FanDuel's 232.5 total.
    • Portland's 117.7 offensive rating and Utah's 115.8 defensive rating create a favorable scoring matchup.
    • The FanDuel 232.5 line is one point lower than the predominant 233.5 market number.
    • Utah's season offense is only 108.3 per 100 possessions, creating a direct under pathway.

Win chance, start to finish

50%UTAPORKickoff
Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Trail Blazers vs. Jazz?

The Trail Blazers won 112-90 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.

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