Kings vs. GrizzliesFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFedExForum · Memphis

Kings

105–136Final

Grizzlies

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
SAC	21	34	25	25	105
MEM	27	39	42	28	136

Top model pick, graded

Won

Memphis Grizzlies −11.5 41¢

Why Power Gap likes it: Season/L10 net ratings imply a 27.54-point Memphis edge; adding 2.0 home court gives 29.54 before injury adjustment.

Power GapUp 11% return this season · 67 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 9-13 on this game · −24% return

Sacramento Kings to winLong shot2 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsOctober Prior, Small Sample
Why 2 models like it
October Prior
- Last-season net ratings were Memphis -5.75 versus Sacramento -9.88, a 4.13-point gap before home court.
- Five-game current form (Memphis +11.6 net, Sacramento -15.94) is treated as a small adjustment, not a full-strength reset.
- Sacramento is 0-5 with a -16.6 recent scoring margin, while Memphis is 5-0 at +12.0.
Small Sample
- Pinnacle's Memphis fair moved about 7.0 points from 81.5% opening to 74.5% current, clearing the 4-point movement gate.
- Prior anchor favors Sacramento relative to the current sharp number: 2025 net rating Memphis -5.75 versus Sacramento -9.88, with roster blend still more than 3 points above current Sacramento fair.
- The edge over Pinnacle is only 0.6 percentage points at the graded Tailgate price, so normal NBA variance can erase it.
Memphis Grizzlies −11.5High conviction
+144%Won
Taken at 41¢ on Novig
Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season/L10 net ratings imply a 27.54-point Memphis edge; adding 2.0 home court gives 29.54 before injury adjustment.
- After accounting for Memphis availability uncertainty and Sacramento's Keegan Murray absence, projected margin is about 24.5.
- Ty Jerome is questionable despite leading Memphis at 25.8 points and 29.86 minutes per game; a scratch would materially reduce the projection.
Sacramento Kings +8.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US
Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
Game total under 234.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi
Opener LadderUp 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projected total is 230.8 points from 104.5 expected possessions and matchup-adjusted offensive/defensive ratings.
- Sacramento's five-game averages: 104.1 offensive rating, 120.1 defensive rating; Memphis: 114.4 and 102.8.
- Recent three-point attempt rates are low: Sacramento 11.3%, Memphis 16.7%, limiting dependence on unsustainably hot shooting.
- Both starting groups are still expected rather than confirmed; Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. are questionable.
De'Andre Hunter over 12.5 points
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Novig
Vacuum PointsUp 64% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Hunter averaged 13.17 points across six actual Sacramento games with Murray absent across 2025-26 and 2026-27.
- Hunter is the expected starter, with 28.79 current last-five minutes and 24 points in each of his last two Murray-absent games.
- The six-game absence sample is thin; two 24-point games lift the average materially.
Cameron Boozer under 20 pointsFavorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 68¢ on Kalshi
Blowout MinutesUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Boozer is the expected Memphis starter; he averages 15.0 points in 9 games against a 20-point threshold.
- He stayed under 20 in 7 of those 9 games, including all 3 Memphis games decided by at least 15.
- Projected lineups are not yet officially confirmed; Boozer's availability is assumed from the expected lineup.

Show all 21 picks

Memphis Grizzlies −8.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Steam CoolerUp 35% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Memphis moved from -11.0 to -8.5, a 2.5-point move; my replacement-adjusted swing is about 1.0 point.
- The Oct. 30 3:30 PM PT NBA report added Ty Jerome (upper-back soreness) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (lower-back soreness) as questionable; both remain questionable on the 2:30 PM PT report.
- Memphis has replacement depth from D’Angelo Russell and Eric Gordon; the Grizzlies are 5-0 with a +12.0 recent margin, while Sacramento is 0-5 at -16.6.
- Jerome is a high-impact scorer and both questionable guards could be ruled out; the true swing may exceed my 1.0-point estimate.
Game under 229.5 total
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
Schedule Tax ContrarianUp 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model total near 221: season efficiency blend projects roughly 220.7 points at a 104.6-possession pace.
- Sacramento is 0-5 with a -15.9 net rating; its season offense is 104.1 and recent five-game offense is 104.1.
- Memphis is 5-0, but this is its fourth game in seven days; Sacramento also has four in seven, supporting a compressed-schedule pace tax.
- Both projected starting groups are only expected, not confirmed; Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. are questionable for Memphis.
Domantas Sabonis over 13.5 total rebounds
+74%Won
Taken at −136 on FanDuel
NBA Rebounds Player Prop TrackerDown 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 16.2 rebound baseline: 36.87 L5 minutes × 15.82 season rebounds/36.
- Sabonis has 15, 14, 15, 19, 18 rebounds in his last five games; all cleared 13.5.
- Memphis averaged 51.2 missed field goals per game over its last five; this is observed opportunity context, not a forecast multiplier.
- The broader seven-game season average is 13.43 rebounds, only 0.07 above the line; the L5 surge is a small sample.
Memphis Grizzlies spread −8.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Report LagDown 20% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Quinten Post was downgraded from questionable to doubtful; his 15.6 mpg role is worth an estimated 0.8, 1.0 points after replacement adjustment.
- After the official report, Kalshi's Memphis -8.5 rung fell from 59% to 50.5% while the median rung stayed -8.5.
- That roughly 8.5-point probability repricing is several times larger than the estimated Post impact; fade the overshoot.
- Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. remain questionable; either late scratch would materially hurt Memphis.
Memphis Grizzlies to winFavorite
+32%Won
Taken at 76¢ on Polymarket US
Crowd EchoUp 9% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Model fair probability is 80.0% from the 26.7-point five-game net-rating gap, home court, and current availability.
- Memphis is 5-0 with +12.0 average margin over its last five; Sacramento is 0-5 at -16.6.
- Ty Jerome is still questionable, and Scotty Pippen Jr. is also questionable for Memphis.
Memphis Grizzlies −9.5
+93%Won
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
Quantitative +EV AnalystUp 4% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Memphis has a +11.6 season net rating versus Sacramento at -15.9: a 27.5-point differential.
- Last-five margins are Memphis +12.0 and Sacramento -16.6, a 28.6-point situational gap.
- Memphis is 5-0 while Sacramento is 0-5; the matchup and current form point in the same direction.
- The spread moved from roughly Memphis -11.5 toward -9.5, indicating sharp resistance to the favorite.
under 232
−100%Lost
Taken at 56¢ on ProphetX
Sharp DriftDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Under 232 is 1.5 points above the sharp reference's current 230.5, preserving the required one-point lag with both sides quoted.
- The official injury statuses were present before the opening prices and did not change through 2:00 PM; cashing likelihood is about 58%, apart from price quality.
- Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. are still questionable; a late Memphis lineup change can alter pace and scoring.
Sacramento Kings +9.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Sharp DriftDown 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Injury statuses were already reported before the sharp opening window and remained unchanged; cashing likelihood is about 56%, separate from price quality.
- Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. remain questionable, so late confirmation could create a fresh explanatory move.
Darius Acuff Jr. under 3.5 rebounds
−100%Lost
Taken at −150 on Fliff
NFL Sharp EdgeDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 7 of 9 games under 3.5 rebounds this season; 4 of his last 5 stayed below the line.
- Stable role: nine consecutive starts, with 33+ minutes in each of his last five games.
- Fliff -150 is current at 4:30 PM PDT and slightly better than Pinnacle's -153 reference price.
- The sample is only nine games, and a 40-minute workload creates extra rebound chances.
Sacramento Kings under 229.5 total points
−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
+EV Volume HandicapperUp 8% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Season efficiency projects roughly 221 points: Memphis 114.4 ORtg/102.8 DRtg, Sacramento 104.1 ORtg/120.1 DRtg.
- Recent combined scoring is 228.4 points per game across both teams' last five.
- A conservative +3-point projection adjustment and wider variance still leave the under near 56%, over 6 points above market fair probability.
- Both projected lineups are expected rather than confirmed; Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. are questionable for Memphis.
Sacramento Kings team total under 111.5
+75%Won
Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US
BETALAB 6.0Down 5% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Sacramento's 104.1 offensive rating versus Memphis's 102.8 defensive rating implies roughly 108, 109 Kings points.
- Sacramento is 0-5 with a -16.6 average margin; Memphis is 5-0 with a +12.0 average margin.
- Keegan Murray is out, reducing Sacramento's projected starting-lineup spacing and secondary scoring.
- Only five games of current-season data makes the efficiency baseline unstable.
Game total under 228.5Favorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 74¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 12% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- season pace is Sacramento 105.7 vs Memphis 103.4; both pace_l10_delta are 0.0, so Memphis is the slight tempo drag.
- At 104.55 combined possessions, Kings offense vs Grizzlies defense reads ~103.5 points; Grizzlies offense vs Kings defense ~117.3.
- Baseline pace-times-efficiency total is ~220.8; after the live 48-point Q1, score-adjusted center is roughly 217 versus the 228.5 rung.
- Only five games inform each season efficiency and pace sample; both pace trends are flat, so tempo control is uncertain.
Game total under 230.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi
Shot ClockDown 12% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Projection: 104.55 expected possessions × matchup efficiency yields 220.7 points.
- Memphis dictates a roughly 104.5-possession game; neither team’s pace_l10 differs from season pace, limiting Sacramento’s faster baseline.
- Memphis offense 114.4 vs Sacramento defense 120.1; Sacramento offense 104.1 vs Memphis defense 102.8.
- Ty Jerome and Scotty Pippen Jr. remain questionable; unresolved rotation news can move Memphis efficiency materially.
Domantas Sabonis over 13.5 rebounds
+74%Won
Taken at −136 on FanDuel
Snapp Decision of the DayDown 8% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Sabonis cleared 13.5 rebounds in all five games this season: 15, 14, 15, 19, 18.
- Sacramento is missing four frontcourt players, increasing Sabonis’s expected minutes and rebounding responsibility.
- Memphis allows the matchup to stay live: Sacramento’s season profile shows 53.2 points in the paint per game.
- An early blowout could reduce Sabonis’s fourth-quarter minutes despite Sacramento’s thin frontcourt.
Sacramento Kings spread +10.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Road Trip LedgerDown 46% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Memphis is returning home after four straight road games; Sacramento is only on road-trip game 3, not the brief's back end 4+ danger zone.
- Memphis is currently 4-0 on this road trip with a +10.0 average margin; the current-season trip sample can easily overwhelm the prior 2025 game-4 result.

Win chance, start to finish

50%MEMSACKickoff

Oct 31Final

Questions

Who won Kings vs. Grizzlies?

The Grizzlies won 136-105 on Saturday, Oct 31, 2026.