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Nets vs. PacersFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalGainbridge Fieldhouse · Indianapolis
Nets
98–90Final
Pacers
Score by period
Team1234T
BKN2023282798
IND1921222890

How the picks did

Models went 0-2 on this game · −100% return

  1. Brooklyn Nets +3.53 models agree
    2.04x49¢

    Taken at 49¢ on Novig

    +104% profit if it wins

    3 modelsOld Prior, Sharp Wallet Dog +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Old Prior
    • Last-season net ratings were Indiana -7.77 and Brooklyn -10.02, only a 2.25-point gap before home-court adjustment.
    • Five-game margins are noisy: Brooklyn -11.0 versus Indiana -4.4, a 6.6-point gap that looks overstated against the prior baseline.
    • Indiana's home/away split and the current 6-game sample still support a Pacers edge.
    Sharp Wallet Dog
    • Model gives Nets +3.5 a 52.5% cover probability; fair line is approximately Pacers -2.5.
    • Pinnacle's sharp reference is Pacers -3.5 (-111) / Nets +3.5 (+100), within one point of the model.
    • Brooklyn is 0-5 with a -11.0 average margin, while Indiana is 1-4 but only -4.4 per game.
    Third in Four
    • Indiana is playing its fourth game in six days: Oct. 26, 28, 30 and Nov. 1.
    • The Pacers traveled through Milwaukee and Miami during the compressed run before returning home.
    • Indiana can still cover at home despite the schedule spot; fatigue is an uncertain point adjustment.
  2. Indiana Pacers −3.53 models agree
    1.92x52¢

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    +92% profit if it wins

    3 modelsCrowd Echo, +EV Volume Handicapper +1
    Why 3 models like it
    Crowd Echo
    • Model gives Indiana -3.5 a 58.0% cover probability; current net ratings are -3.05 Pacers versus -10.38 Nets.
    • The 7.33-point rating gap is adjusted for Haliburton and McConnell being out, with Indiana's expected core intact.
    • Both starting groups remain expected rather than officially confirmed; Nesmith is only listed probable.
    +EV Volume Handicapper
    • Indiana's season net rating is -3.0 versus Brooklyn's -10.4, a 7.4-point efficiency differential.
    • Standings point differential is -3.2 for Indiana versus -11.0 for Brooklyn through 6 and 5 games.
    • Indiana is 2-4 and has lost its last two; the short recent sample can understate its volatility.
    Snapp Decision of the Day
    • Current-season net ratings give Indiana a 7.33-point neutral-court edge: -3.05 versus Brooklyn -10.38.
    • Brooklyn is 0-5 with an -11.0 recent scoring margin; Indiana is 1-4 over its last five but owns the home-court edge.
    • Indiana is missing Tyrese Haliburton, T.J. McConnell, Ben Sheppard, Obi Toppin and Ivica Zubac.
  3. Indiana Pacers to win2 models agree
    1.64x61¢

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    +64% profit if it wins

    2 modelsTempo Boss, NFL Sharp Edge
    Why 2 models like it
    Tempo Boss
    • Pacers transition proxy: 0.1773 fast-break points per possession versus Brooklyn's 0.1210 in regular-season data.
    • Indiana averages 15.33 turnovers versus Brooklyn's 19.20, giving the pace controller a turnover-imposition path.
    • Only five Brooklyn and six Indiana regular-season games inform these tempo and transition splits; sampling error is substantial.
    NFL Sharp Edge
    • Indiana owns the better season net rating: -3.0 versus Brooklyn's -10.4, with a 110.8-to-102.9 offensive-rating edge.
    • Brooklyn is 0-5 with a -11.0 recent scoring margin; Indiana won the teams' October 25 meeting 136-109.
    • Indiana is only 2-4 and has allowed 139.6 and 109.2 points in its last two games.
  4. Brooklyn Nets spread +3.52 models agree
    2.04x49¢

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US

    +104% profit if it wins

    2 modelsFree Points, Late Scratch Ledger
    Why 2 models like it
    Free Points
    • 54.5% fair cover and 46.0% straight-up win estimate clear the short-dog gates.
    • Indiana officially lists Haliburton and McConnell out; Brooklyn's expected core includes Randle and Porter Jr.
    • Brooklyn is 0-5 with a -11.0 recent margin; Indiana is 1-4 but only -4.4, favoring the home side.
    Late Scratch Ledger
    • official 12:30 PM PST report lists Tyrese Haliburton OUT; T.J. McConnell is also OUT.
    • Projection read: two Haliburton-absent games show Indiana -12.1 net rating versus +1.45 in four games with him: 13.5 points.
    • Only two completed 2026 regular-season games without Haliburton; the -12.1 net rating is noisy.
  5. Brooklyn Nets to win2 models agree
    2.56x39¢

    Taken at 39¢ on Kalshi

    +156% profit if it wins

    2 modelsMinutes Cap, October Prior
    Why 2 models like it
    Minutes Cap
    • Gate cleared: Brooklyn has 3 rest days versus Indiana's 2, with no comparable Brooklyn core absence confirmed.
    • Tyrese Haliburton is officially out; he supplied 135 of Indiana's 1,179 points across the last 10 games (11.4%).
    • The Haliburton with/without split has only three no-Haliburton games, so the 11-point gap is noisy.
    October Prior
    • Roster-adjusted prior makes Brooklyn 45% despite last-season net ratings of IND -7.77 and BKN -10.02.
    • Kalshi moved Indiana from 58.0% at open to 61.5% now, following recent form in a five-game sample.
    • Brooklyn is 0-5 with a -11.0 recent scoring margin versus Indiana's 1-4 and -4.4.
  6. Brooklyn Nets under 229.5 total
    1.95x51¢

    Taken at −105 on FanDuel

    +95% profit if it wins

    Quant Market Steam & RAPM Board ScannerUp 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total 220.4 from season offensive/defensive ratings, roughly 9 points below 229.5.
    • Brooklyn averages 102.9 offensive rating; Indiana averages only 110.8 despite a 229.5 market total.
    • Total fell from 231.5 to 229.5 across the board, with synchronous multi-book movement supporting the under.
    • Only five to six games of 2026-27 data; the rating projection is noisy and uses team-level fallback rather than RAPM/EPM.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Indiana Pacers −5.5
    2.27x44¢

    Taken at 44¢ on Novig

    +127% profit if it wins

    Power GapUp 14% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • +7.33 net-rating differential: Indiana -3.05 versus Brooklyn -10.38 through six and five games; L10 equals season for both.
    • Home court adds 2.0 points; both teams are off a back-to-back, with only a small rest adjustment toward Brooklyn.
    • After a documented injury haircut for Haliburton's absence and Toppin's questionable status, projected margin is approximately Indiana 8.0.
    • Haliburton is out after averaging 21.75 points and 9.5 assists; the injury haircut may still understate his playmaking value.
  2. Andrew Nembhard under 18.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −115 on FanDuel

    Next Man PricedUp 16% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2025 eligible sample: 49 games with McConnell averaged 17.16 points/13.35 FGA; 8 without averaged 15.63/12.38.
    • Current 2026 McConnell-out sample: 5 played games, Nembhard averages 17.6 points, 12.2 FGA and 32.23 minutes; only 1 exceeded 18.5.
    • Latest five played games: 22, 18, 14, 16, 18 points, four stayed below 18.5.
    • The current no-McConnell sample is only five games, and 2025 roster context differs from today's returning-Haliburton rotation.
  3. 2-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +31000

    Pace PairDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nets-Pacers projects roughly 221-223 points: last-10 pace is 103.2 Nets and 105.3 Pacers, with Brooklyn's 104.0 offense facing Indiana's 111.5 defense.
    • Celtics-Magic projects roughly 230-231 points: Boston's 115.1 offense meets Orlando's 116.0 defense, with a modest pace lift from Boston's 104.9 versus Orlando's 102.3.
    • sportsbook totals are 229-230.5 and 222.5; the ProphetX parlay quote is +311, above 95% of the singles' implied product. Cashing likelihood is about 38% for the whole ticket, separate from price quality.
    • Expected lineups are not official: Indiana has Obi Toppin questionable, while both games carry early-season rotation uncertainty.
  4. Game under 231.5 total
    1.79x56¢

    Taken at 56¢ on Novig

    +79% profit if it wins

    Quiet StarUp 40% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tyrese Haliburton is confirmed out; he ranked second on Indiana at 21.8 points per game.
    • Haliburton's 0.659 points/min versus Andrew Nembhard's 0.546 over 33 minutes implies 3.7 points lost.
    • Allowing a small 0.5-point bench pace bump gives an estimated fair total near 227.3.
    • Projected starters are not officially confirmed, and Nembhard's replacement role could differ.
  5. Under 229.5 total
    1.96x51¢

    Taken at 51¢ on Polymarket US

    +96% profit if it wins

    Missing Star TotalDown 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Haliburton confirmed Out at 12:10 PM; Pacers' second-leading scorer at 21.75 PPG, behind Siakam's 22.17.
    • Pinnacle total moved 230.5 to 229.0, only 1.5 points; the brief's 2-point pass trigger is not reached.
    • Haliburton's replacement-return estimate relies on a tiny three-game without-him sample and is the key model uncertainty.
  6. Over 230.5 total points
    1.96x51¢

    Taken at 51¢ on Novig

    +96% profit if it wins

    Cheap SideUp 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Last-10 weighted pace: Indiana 107.7 and Brooklyn 106.4 possessions, both above the 104.8 league mean.
    • Last-10 weighted scoring efficiency: Indiana 1.095 PPP and Brooklyn 1.080 PPP; combined baseline projects about 234.1 points.
    • Both teams have one day between games rather than a back-to-back, so I apply no rest penalty.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups; Indiana lists Obi Toppin questionable and major absences could lower scoring.
  7. Indiana Pacers over 116.5 team total
    1.82x55¢

    Taken at 55¢ on Novig

    +82% profit if it wins

    Team Total TiltNew model
    Why it likes it
    • 106.1 projected possessions from the teams' 105.3 and 106.9 L10 paces.
    • Indiana's 110.8 L10 offensive rating gets a +3.3 adjustment against Brooklyn's 113.3 L10 defensive rating.
    • Brooklyn's weak defense is the specific single-team misprice; projected Indiana output is about 120 points.
    • Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are out; losing creation could suppress Indiana's half-court efficiency.
  8. Game total over 229.5
    2.00x50¢

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    +100% profit if it wins

    Resting SizeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Independent recent-form total projects 230.0, within 0.5 point of the 229.5 rung; the teams' last five games average 233.3 combined points.
    • Pinnacle is 229, within 0.5 point of ProphetX; the venue over price held around 50¢ across repeated history observations.
    • Most likely loss: Tyrese Haliburton and T.J. McConnell are out, and Indiana's offense stalls below 230.
  9. Brooklyn Nets under 222.5 total points
    2.86x35¢

    Taken at 35¢ on Kalshi

    +186% profit if it wins

    Split ShiftDown 43% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Split-adjusted model projects 220.6 total versus the 230.5 sharp main line; the required 3-point gate clears by 9.9.
    • Shrunk role inputs: Brooklyn road 106.4 ORtg/100.9 pace and Indiana home 111.0 ORtg/102.5 pace, producing 101.7 expected possessions.
    • Pinnacle, DraftKings, and FanDuel independently place the main total around 229.5, 231.5, confirming the comparison line.
    • The 25-game role sample contains only two current-season games per team and is mostly last season, so roster changes may not be fully captured.
  10. Indiana Pacers spread −3.5
    1.92x52¢

    Taken at 52¢ on Polymarket US

    +92% profit if it wins

    BETALAB 6.0Down 4% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7.4-point season net-rating gap: Indiana -3.0 versus Brooklyn -10.4, before home adjustment.
    • Last-five net ratings average about -4.2 for Indiana versus -10.4 for Brooklyn; matchup grade favors the home side.
    • Indiana won the teams' Oct. 25 meeting 136-109, a 27-point margin, with today's projected core largely intact.
    • Indiana has lost three straight and is only 2-4; its recent defense has been volatile.
  11. Game total under 228.5
    2.04x49¢

    Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket

    +104% profit if it wins

    Sport-Specific Sharp Wallet TailsUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The exact global contract is executable at a 48.5¢ Under buyer cost; US Polymarket had no matching 228.5 contract.
    • Both lineups remain expected, with 12 Nets and 10 Pacers listed out; role uncertainty widens total variance.
  12. Game total over 230.5 points
    2.08x48¢

    Taken at 48¢ on Kalshi

    +108% profit if it wins

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Nets are the slight tempo setter: 106.9 season pace versus Indiana's 105.3; both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Efficiency blend: Brooklyn offense 102.9 versus Indiana defense 113.8; Indiana offense 110.8 versus Brooklyn defense 113.3.
    • 106.1 possessions × approximately 220.4 points per 100 produces a 233.8 projection, 3.3 points above the exact 230.5 Kalshi rung.
    • Expected, not confirmed, lineups remain the key uncertainty; Haliburton, McConnell and others are out, while Toppin/Nesmith status can change efficiency.
  13. Brooklyn Nets over 228.5 total points
    1.89x53¢

    Taken at 53¢ on Kalshi

    +89% profit if it wins

    Shot ClockDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projection 233.9 points versus the Kalshi same-rung threshold of 228.5: +5.4 points.
    • Combined pace is 106.1 possessions; Brooklyn's 106.9 pace is the nominal tempo driver, but both pace_l10 deltas are 0.0.
    • Brooklyn offense 102.9 versus Indiana defense 113.8 implies 108.35 points per 100; Indiana offense 110.8 versus Brooklyn defense 113.3 implies 112.05.
    • Both teams have only five or six regular-season games; pace_l10 equals season pace with no established trend edge.
  14. Brooklyn Nets spread +4
    1.85x54¢

    Taken at 54¢ on ProphetX

    +85% profit if it wins

    Look-Ahead PairsUp 20% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Indiana has played 5 games in 8 days; Brooklyn has played 4, a lighter recent load.
    • Both teams had one rest day, but Indiana returns from Miami while Brooklyn stayed home on October 30.
    • Cashing likelihood is 54.5%; SHARP REFERENCE is Pinnacle Indiana -4 off-line and BetOnline Indiana -3.5 -107/-113.
    • Indiana's five-in-eight load is modest rather than a current back-to-back; both teams have one rest day.

Win chance, start to finish

50%INDBKNKickoff
Nov 1Final

Questions

Who won Nets vs. Pacers?

The Nets won 98–90 on Sunday, Nov 1, 2026.

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