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NBA · Week 2

Which NBA hot starts are real?

Memphis' 6-0 start rests on hot shooting and a soft schedule. Houston, Detroit and Portland hold up, and Miami is better than 2-4.

Snapp AI Analysis · · Games through Oct. 31

Memphis' net rating is mostly made threes

Memphis' net rating is mostly made threesMemphis has a +13.3 net rating but only +2.3 when its shooting and its opponents' shooting are set to what those shooters normally hit. Houston falls from +13.4 to +4.9 and Detroit from +8.8 to +4.8. Miami rises from -3.3 to +4.0, Phoenix from -9.6 to -0.3 and Chicago from -13.3 to -2.6.-20-15-10-50+5+10+15-15-10-50+5+10no shooting luckUnlucky: better than they lookLucky: shooting has flattered themActual net rating (points per 100 possessions)Net rating at normal 3-point shootingHawks 3-4: +0.4 net rating, +0.3 at normal 3-point shootingNets 0-5: -9.3 net rating, -9.7 at normal 3-point shootingCeltics 4-1: +8.5 net rating, +4.8 at normal 3-point shootingHornets 3-4: -10.2 net rating, -0.7 at normal 3-point shootingCavaliers 4-2: +5.1 net rating, +2.3 at normal 3-point shootingMavericks 4-2: +3.9 net rating, -1.1 at normal 3-point shootingNuggets 3-2: +0.5 net rating, +0.3 at normal 3-point shootingWarriors 3-3: +1.7 net rating, -3.1 at normal 3-point shootingPacers 2-4: -4.4 net rating, -1.7 at normal 3-point shootingClippers 1-4: -8.3 net rating, -10.6 at normal 3-point shootingLakers 4-2: +7.2 net rating, +8.4 at normal 3-point shootingBucks 1-5: -10.9 net rating, -8.5 at normal 3-point shootingTimberwolves 4-3: +9.5 net rating, +3.4 at normal 3-point shootingPelicans 2-4: +0.9 net rating, -2.0 at normal 3-point shootingKnicks 2-4: -2.4 net rating, -0.6 at normal 3-point shootingThunder 4-2: -0.7 net rating, +3.4 at normal 3-point shootingMagic 2-3: -5.9 net rating, -6.1 at normal 3-point shooting76ers 6-1: +2.5 net rating, -0.6 at normal 3-point shootingTrail Blazers 4-1: +9.2 net rating, +5.0 at normal 3-point shootingKings 0-6: -18.0 net rating, -9.3 at normal 3-point shootingSpurs 4-2: +6.4 net rating, +7.7 at normal 3-point shootingRaptors 3-2: +8.9 net rating, +10.9 at normal 3-point shootingJazz 1-5: -9.1 net rating, -4.8 at normal 3-point shootingWizards 3-3: +1.8 net rating, -1.7 at normal 3-point shootingBulls 1-5: -13.3 net rating, -2.6 at normal 3-point shootingBulls 1-5Pistons 5-1: +8.8 net rating, +4.8 at normal 3-point shootingPistons 5-1Rockets 6-1: +13.4 net rating, +4.9 at normal 3-point shootingRockets 6-1Grizzlies 6-0: +13.3 net rating, +2.3 at normal 3-point shootingGrizzlies 6-0Heat 2-4: -3.3 net rating, +4.0 at normal 3-point shootingHeat 2-4Suns 1-3: -9.6 net rating, -0.3 at normal 3-point shootingSuns 1-3
Each logo is a team. Dashed line: no shooting luck. Below it, 3-point shooting has flattered a team; above it, it has hurt.

The Memphis Grizzlies are 6-0 with a +13.3 net rating (points per 100 possessions, minus opponents'), 2nd in the NBA. Set their 3-point shooting, and their opponents', to what those shooters usually hit, and Memphis drops to +2.3.

Houston falls but stays good. Detroit and Portland barely move. Miami, Phoenix and Chicago have been the unluckiest.

The gap

3-point luck is worth 11 points per 100 possessions to Memphis

We swapped every team's made threes, and its opponents', for what those shooters usually hit.

Shooting luck has added 11 points per 100 to Memphis, the most in the NBA

Points per 100 possessions that 3-point shooting, theirs and opponents', has added or cost. Games through Oct. 31.
  • Memphis shoots 41.7% from three, best in the NBA, and holds opponents to 30.1%. The league is at 34.6%.
  • Chicago, Charlotte, Phoenix and Miami have each lost 7 to 11 points per 100.
Who's hitting

Memphis' role players are shooting far above their track records

Memphis' shooters would be expected to make 34.9% from three. They are making 41.7%, about 16 extra threes in six games.

Memphis' role players, and two Rockets, are far above their 3-point norms

Norm: 2024-25 and 2025-26 regular seasons (Coward: rookie year only). Dashed line: 2026-27 league average (34.6%).
  • The exception: Ty Jerome, Memphis' leading scorer (25.8 points), is at 34.4% after 43.3%.
  • Houston's stars are normal: Kevin Durant is at 40.7% (norm 41.9%).
Is it the shots?

Shot quality doesn't explain the defenses either

Good defenses can force worse threes. These mostly haven't: Memphis opponents were expected to hit 34.4% and hit 30.1%; Houston's, 34.6% and 30.2%. Miami's opponents were expected at 34.9% and are at 40.5%, Phoenix's at 34.5% and 43.9%.

  • Contests: Memphis contests 40.3% of opponent threes, about the league rate (40.1%). Miami contests 42.1% and still allows 40.5%. Across 30 teams the correlation is -0.10.
  • Location: corners (35.4%) and above-the-break threes (34.4%) fall at nearly the same rate.
  • Phoenix contests only 36.8% (25th), so not all of its 43.9% is bad luck.
Who they played

Memphis has played Utah and Sacramento four times

Utah and Sacramento are a combined 1-11. Houston, Philadelphia and Miami have faced about average schedules.

Four of Memphis' six wins came against Utah and Sacramento

Bars above the line are wins, below are losses. The shaded band is games decided by 5 points or fewer.
  • Schedule: Memphis' opponents average -4.4 net rating at normal shooting, 2nd softest. Houston's: +0.1. Last season's ratings agree (-6.0 vs +1.0).
  • Adjusted for luck and schedule, Houston ranks 3rd, Miami 4th, Detroit and Portland 5th and 6th. Memphis is 24th, though 15th to 24th are within two points.
  • Philadelphia is 3-0 in games decided by 5 or fewer. Since 2021-22, teams 88-18 in early close games went .501 in them afterward.
What's driving it

Team by team: the players and injuries behind it

Memphis Grizzlies6-0 · the least real
13 of 21Cedric Coward's threes (33.8% as a rookie)
41.7%3-point percentage, 1st
24thadjusted for luck and schedule
  • Outside the threes Memphis is ordinary: 5th in offensive rebounding, 16th in turnovers, 25th on twos.
  • Ty Jerome, Scotty Pippen Jr. and Quinten Post are questionable for Monday against New Orleans (Nov. 2; injury report as of Nov. 1).
Houston Rockets6-1 · mostly real
44.7%Jabari Smith Jr. from three (35.9% norm)
30.2%opponents' 3-point percentage, 4th lowest
3rdadjusted for luck and schedule
  • The NBA's best offense (119.6). Fred VanVleet and Reed Sheppard are questionable for Monday against Boston (Nov. 2; report as of Nov. 1).
Detroit Pistons5-1 · real
22.2Cade Cunningham's points a game, on normal shooting
1stdefense (100.5)
+4.8at normal shooting
  • Jalen Duren (hamstring) will be re-evaluated in about two weeks (as of Nov. 1).
Portland Trail Blazers4-1 · real, now shorthanded
20 of 39Toumani Camara's threes (37.2% norm)
+5.0at normal shooting
4 weeksJa Morant out (hamstring), as of Nov. 1
  • Shaedon Sharpe (meniscus) is out about six months. Damian Lillard and Scoot Henderson are below their norms.
Philadelphia 76ers6-1 · the record outruns the play
29.6Tyrese Maxey's points a game
22ndoffense (105.6)
3-0in games decided by 5 or fewer
  • The defense is real (4th). LeBron James and Joel Embiid are questionable for Monday against Chicago (Nov. 2; report as of Nov. 1).
Miami Heat2-4 · better than the record
40.5%opponents' 3-point percentage, 2nd highest
+4.0at normal shooting
3 of 21Bam Adebayo's threes (33.2% norm)
  • Minnesota's Anthony Edwards hit 9 of 17 threes against Miami in the Heat's 25-point opening loss. No Heat player is on the injury report (as of Nov. 1).
Will it last?

Lucky starts cooled off, but not all the way

Lucky starts fell back and unlucky ones recovered, both only partway.

Lucky starts fell back; unlucky starts recovered only partway

NBA team seasons 2021-22 to 2025-26. Shooting luck in net rating points per 100 possessions.
  • Opponents' 3-point percentage through seven games correlated just 0.13 with the rest of the season.
  • But a point of shooting luck counted roughly half as much as a point of luck-free net rating in predicting later wins (a loose estimate).
  • Unlucky teams recovered less: the -6 group won 41.9% afterward. A caution for Miami.
The conversation

Analysts call Memphis a surprise. Few have priced in the threes.

What the data adds: shooting and schedule account for all of Memphis' margin. Houston keeps about +5 after both.

From here

Houston projects best of the hot starts; Memphis looks like a winning team, not a contender

Counting about half the shooting luck plus the schedule, Houston projects to win 64% of its remaining games and Memphis 55%. The bands overlap.

Houston projects best, Memphis near 48 wins, and every band overlaps

Fit on 150 team seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26), plus a schedule adjustment. Bands: typical miss (±12 points). Ignores injuries.

What would change it: Coward and Spencer still above 45% from three in December, against better teams.

FAQ

Questions people ask

Are the Grizzlies for real in 2026-27?

Not as a top team yet. Memphis is +13.3 per 100 possessions but +2.3 at normal 3-point shooting, against the 2nd-softest schedule. We project about 48 wins.

Are the Rockets good this season?

Yes. Houston falls from +13.4 to +4.9 at normal shooting, but against an average schedule, and ranks 3rd after adjusting for both.

Which NBA teams are better than their record in 2026-27?

Miami (2-4) most of all: opponents are shooting 40.5% from three, and at normal shooting the Heat are +4.0. Phoenix, Chicago and Charlotte have been unlucky too.

Is opponent 3-point percentage luck in the NBA?

Mostly. From 2021-22 to 2025-26, opponents' 3-point percentage through seven games correlated just 0.13 with the rest of the season.

How we did this: Snapp's NBA warehouse (box scores, shot locations, NBA tracking contests, injury reports), regular-season games through Oct. 31, 2026. Shooting luck: made threes, for and against, vs those shooters' 2024-25 and 2025-26 rates (shrunk toward 35.5% with 250 attempts), scaled to this season's 34.6% league rate. Each extra make counts 2.7 points, since misses are sometimes rebounded; at 3.0 Memphis is +1.0 (still 24th), at 2.4 it is +3.5 (20th). Schedule: opponents' average luck-adjusted net rating. History: 150 team seasons, first seven games vs the rest. The projection regresses on luck-free net rating and shooting luck; the schedule term was added, not fit. It ignores injuries.

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