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NFL · Week 9 preview

Is the Vikings' defense real?

Yes: Minnesota has a top-3 defense per play against a tougher-than-average schedule. History says it fades to good, and Josh Allen is the hardest test left.

Snapp AI Analysis · · Games through the early kickoffs of Nov. 1 (Week 8), including Vikings at Lions; PFF charting through Week 7

Minnesota's defense is elite. Its offense is the problem.

Minnesota's defense is elite. Its offense is the problem.Scatter of all 32 NFL teams. The Vikings sit near the top, with the 3rd-best defense per play, but on the left with the 27th-ranked offense. The Bills sit far right with the 3rd-best offense and a below-average defense, 25th.-0.3-0.2-0.10+0.1+0.2-0.2-0.10+0.1+0.2Good defense, weak offenseGood at bothGood offense, weak defenseOffense: EPA per play, adjustedDefense: EPA per play prevented, adjustedBuccaneers: offense 29th (-0.125), defense 1st (-0.238 allowed)Seahawks: offense 25th (-0.105), defense 2nd (-0.210 allowed)Falcons: offense 20th (-0.057), defense 4th (-0.133 allowed)Bears: offense 4th (+0.131), defense 5th (-0.108 allowed)Chargers: offense 32nd (-0.314), defense 6th (-0.099 allowed)Packers: offense 10th (+0.065), defense 7th (-0.079 allowed)Jaguars: offense 8th (+0.071), defense 8th (-0.064 allowed)Rams: offense 14th (+0.043), defense 9th (-0.063 allowed)Patriots: offense 9th (+0.065), defense 10th (-0.060 allowed)49ers: offense 1st (+0.177), defense 11th (-0.053 allowed)Broncos: offense 15th (+0.002), defense 12th (-0.050 allowed)Browns: offense 23rd (-0.073), defense 13th (-0.039 allowed)Steelers: offense 13th (+0.050), defense 14th (-0.033 allowed)Ravens: offense 19th (-0.050), defense 15th (-0.019 allowed)Eagles: offense 30th (-0.133), defense 16th (-0.015 allowed)Jets: offense 24th (-0.086), defense 17th (+0.008 allowed)Chiefs: offense 2nd (+0.148), defense 18th (+0.012 allowed)Giants: offense 28th (-0.120), defense 19th (+0.020 allowed)Bengals: offense 5th (+0.109), defense 20th (+0.025 allowed)Panthers: offense 7th (+0.079), defense 21st (+0.026 allowed)Lions: offense 6th (+0.080), defense 22nd (+0.028 allowed)Colts: offense 18th (-0.042), defense 23rd (+0.035 allowed)Saints: offense 17th (-0.040), defense 24th (+0.037 allowed)Commanders: offense 21st (-0.058), defense 26th (+0.042 allowed)Texans: offense 16th (-0.005), defense 27th (+0.043 allowed)Cardinals: offense 26th (-0.116), defense 28th (+0.058 allowed)Raiders: offense 12th (+0.060), defense 29th (+0.119 allowed)Titans: offense 31st (-0.156), defense 30th (+0.130 allowed)Cowboys: offense 11th (+0.061), defense 31st (+0.181 allowed)Dolphins: offense 22nd (-0.067), defense 32nd (+0.182 allowed)Vikings: offense 27th (-0.118), defense 3rd (-0.162 allowed)VikingsBills: offense 3rd (+0.134), defense 25th (+0.040 allowed)Bills
Each logo is a team. Adjusted EPA per play, garbage time removed. Up = better defense, right = better offense.

The Vikings' defense is real. It ranks 3rd in the NFL per play after adjusting for opponents, against offenses that are better than average. At Detroit on Sunday, an offense finished above zero EPA per play against it for the first time.

The bigger problem is Minnesota's offense, 27th. Buffalo, 3rd on offense and 25th on defense, is its mirror image.

The answer

Per play, Minnesota has a top-3 defense, even after Detroit

Remove garbage time, weight every play and adjust for opponents, and the Vikings rank 3rd in defense after Sunday. Tampa Bay and Seattle are ahead.

Defense per play, all 32 teams, adjusted for opponents

Positive = better than average. Adjusted for opponents, garbage time removed.
  • 13.3 points allowed a game, the fewest in the NFL.
  • Before Sunday it ranked 2nd (-0.203 adjusted), a hair behind Seattle, as in our Week 8 records check. Detroit's +0.06 a play dropped Minnesota to 3rd (-0.162).
  • Great, not historic: 39 of 320 defenses since 2016 allowed less EPA per play through seven games. The 2019 Patriots (-0.60) top the list.
The schedule

The schedule wasn't soft. Offenses just played worse against Minnesota

Minnesota's seven opponents have been better than average on offense against everyone else. Six of the seven were worse against the Vikings.

Each opponent's offense: against everyone else vs against Minnesota

EPA per play, garbage time removed. League average: -0.01.
  • Opponents averaged +0.020 EPA per play in their other games (league -0.014): the 5th-toughest schedule of 32.
  • Two of them are top-6 offenses after adjustment: Chicago (4th), held to -0.15 per play, and Detroit (6th).
  • Detroit won on the ground: 39 runs for 200 yards, including Jahmyr Gibbs' 30-yard touchdown. Jared Goff's passing was held to about zero EPA per dropback.
Who makes it work

Brian Flores blitzes on four of every five dropbacks

The pressure comes from the scheme more than the front four. Minnesota blitzes more than twice as often as the average defense. PFF numbers here run through Week 7.

Minnesota Vikings defense6-1 · 3rd per play, 1st in points allowed
79%blitz rate, 1st (league 35%), PFF
36Dallas Turner pressures, 5th in the NFL
44yards allowed by Isaiah Rodgers on 21 targets
  • Opposing quarterbacks were pressured on 47.6% of dropbacks, the NFL's highest rate (league 36%).
  • Dallas Turner wins 17% of his pass rushes, 8th of 160 rushers. Linebackers Blake Cashman and Eric Wilson add 31 pressures, mostly on blitzes.
  • The soft spot is inside: defensive tackle Jalen Redmond wins 5% of his rushes. Safety Josh Metellus has allowed 313 yards in coverage.
Minnesota Vikings offense27th per play · 20.0 points a game
27thoffense per play, adjusted
-0.12Kyler Murray EPA per dropback vs the blitz (average +0.02)
-0.11EPA per dropback, 26th
  • Kyler Murray is the starter. He left Week 1 with a concussion and has started every game since Week 3. He was listed questionable (hamstring) for Detroit and played the whole game.
  • Left guard Donovan Jackson is on injured reserve (knee).
Buffalo Bills6-1 · 3rd on offense, 25th on defense
+0.32Josh Allen EPA per dropback vs the blitz, 2nd of 29
33.3points a game, 1st
25.9points allowed a game, 24th
  • Allen is 2nd under pressure too: +0.03 EPA per pressured dropback; the average quarterback loses 0.29.
  • The opening: 11 turnover-worthy plays (PFF) but only 4 interceptions.
  • Right tackle Spencer Brown (back) missed Sunday's game. DJ Moore and Dalton Kincaid were questionable.
Turnovers

Takeaways help, but they aren't why Minnesota is good

Take every interception and fumble recovery out and the Vikings still rank 3rd per play (-0.055 allowed; league +0.073).

  • 11 takeaways in 7 games, tied for 5th per game.
  • About two picks of luck: opponents made 10 turnover-worthy plays (PFF) through Week 7. At the league rate that is about 5 interceptions; Minnesota had 7.
  • Forcing mistakes is a skill: Minnesota draws turnover-worthy plays on 4.8% of dropbacks, 6th (league 3.5%).
Will it last?

Great early defenses usually fade to good

Defense carries over less than offense. Since 2016, a team's defensive EPA over its first seven games has a 0.27 correlation with the rest of its season; offense is 0.52.

Defensive EPA per play: first 7 games vs the rest of the season

Top-3 defenses after seven games, 2016 to 2025. Garbage time removed. Lower = better.
  • Only 8 of those 30 defenses stayed top 3. Twelve finished top 10, and ten fell to the bottom half (median rest-of-season rank: 13.5).
  • The 2019 Patriots allowed 48 points in their first seven games, then 19.7 a game the rest of the way, and went 5-4 after a 7-0 start.
  • One caveat to the fade: Minnesota's numbers came against a tough early schedule, so less of its start is schedule luck.
The matchup

Josh Allen is the wrong quarterback to blitz, and Minnesota can't punish Buffalo's weakness

Buffalo's offense is good at everything. Its defense is weak against the pass, which is what Minnesota does worst.

Each offense vs the defense it faces Monday night

EPA per play, garbage time removed, not adjusted. League: +0.05 per dropback, +0.01 per run.
  • Allen against the blitz: +0.32 EPA per blitzed dropback through Week 7, 2nd of 29 quarterbacks (average +0.02). Minnesota blitzes almost every snap.
  • Buffalo can run, too: +0.19 EPA per run, 2nd. Detroit just showed that running beats this defense.
  • Weakness meets weakness: Buffalo allows +0.15 per dropback (24th), but Minnesota passes for -0.11 (26th).
The conversation

Everyone sees the blitz. Fewer ask whether it lasts

  • The Ringer's Diante Lee (Oct. 27): "The Vikings are somehow 6-0 despite having a totally unwatchable offense."
  • Next Gen Stats, via VikingsRoundtable's Joey Hickey (Oct. 26): Minnesota blitzed on 85.2% of Daniel Jones' dropbacks, "the highest blitz rate by a defense in a game in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016)."
  • NFL.com's Kevin Patra (Oct. 2), citing Next Gen Stats: "The 2026 Vikings have the highest blitz rate (71.1%) of any team in a season since 2016."

What the data adds: the schedule wasn't soft and takeaways aren't the engine, so the defense is real. But most top-3 starts don't stay top 3, and Detroit's 200 rushing yards showed a counter Buffalo, 2nd in rushing EPA, can use.

From here

The hard part of the schedule starts Monday

Five of Minnesota's last 10 opponents have top-7 offenses. Its first seven opponents average +0.01 EPA per play adjusted; the last 10 average +0.05.

Minnesota's remaining opponents, by adjusted offense

Adjusted offensive EPA per play, garbage time removed.

Projection: first-seven-game defense plus last season's defense projects Minnesota at about -0.05 EPA per play the rest of the way, typical miss ±0.09. That is a top-10 defense, not a top-3 one.

FAQ

Questions people ask

Is the Vikings defense good in 2026?

Yes. Minnesota allows the fewest points in the NFL (13.3 a game) and ranks 3rd per play after adjusting for opponents and removing garbage time, against slightly better than average offenses.

How often do the Vikings blitz?

More than anyone. PFF charted a blitz on 79% of dropbacks through Week 7 (league 35%). Next Gen Stats, which counts differently, had 71.1% as of Oct. 2, the highest for any team since 2016.

Who is the Vikings' starting quarterback?

Kyler Murray. Carson Wentz started Week 2 after Murray's Week 1 concussion; Murray has started every game since Week 3.

When is Bills vs Vikings?

Monday Night Football, Week 9: Nov. 9, 2026, 8:15 p.m. ET at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. Both teams are 6-1.

Do early-season defensive stats carry over in the NFL?

Less than offense. Since 2016, first-seven-game defensive EPA has a 0.27 correlation with the rest of the season; offense is 0.52. Of 30 top-3 defenses after seven games, 8 stayed top 3.

How we did this: Snapp's NFL play-by-play warehouse with ESPN win probability, PFF charting and injury reports. Regular-season games that kicked off before 3 p.m. ET on Nov. 1, 2026 (all of Week 8's early games, including Minnesota at Detroit); numbers before Week 8 Sunday match our Week 8 records article. PFF numbers run through Week 7. Per-play numbers count scrimmage plays with pre-snap win probability between 10% and 90%, weight every play, correct defensive-touchdown returns, and adjust iteratively for each opponent's offense or defense. Opponents' offenses in the schedule check exclude their games against Minnesota. History uses 320 team seasons, 2016 to 2025, with each team's first seven games and the same filters. The projection regresses rest-of-season defensive EPA on first-seven-game defense and the previous season's defense (2017-2025, 288 team seasons); its typical miss is ±0.09 EPA per play. Blitz and pressure rates are PFF's, counted from opposing quarterbacks' dropbacks, and differ from Next Gen Stats' definition.

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