Wild vs. LightningFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalBenchmark International Arena
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| TB | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Top model pick, graded
WonMinnesota Wild spread +2.5 77¢
Why Fair Dog likes it: Sharp anchor: Tampa Bay 57.2% moneyline probability with a 6.0-goal total.
Fair DogDown 11% this season · 41 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-0 on this game · +68% return
- Game total under 6.5+82%Won
Taken at 55¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsCohort Check, high-confidence main marketsWhy 2 models like it
Cohort Check- 4.83 combined goals from the teams’ current 3-game offense/defense rates; conservative model makes Under 6.5 about 70%.
- Confirmed starters Jesper Wallstedt (.916 2025-26 save percentage) and Dennis Hildeby (.914) support a lower-scoring baseline.
- The team-rate sample is only three games, so early-season scoring variance is substantial.
high-confidence main markets- 61.5% independent under estimate; fair price about -160 versus DraftKings -130.
- Both teams' last three totals stayed below 6.5: Minnesota 5, 5, 4; Tampa Bay 5, 4, 6.
- Current-season samples are only three games per team, making rates highly volatile.
- Minnesota Wild spread +2.5+30%Won
Taken at 77¢ on Polymarket US
Fair DogDown 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Sharp anchor: Tampa Bay 57.2% moneyline probability with a 6.0-goal total.
- Poisson margin fit projects Tampa Bay win-by-3+ at 19.5%; fair Wild +2.5 cover is 80.5%.
- Wild form is +1.3 goal margin over the last three versus Tampa Bay's +0.3.
- Hildeby's start remains listed likely rather than confirmed; a late goalie change can materially shift the margin.
- Jesper Wallstedt over 25.5 saves+83%Won
Taken at −120 on DraftKings
THE 3 N -SPORTS SYSTEMDown 29% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 30.3 Tampa Bay shots per game through three contests; the Lightning produced 25, 30, and 36 shots recently.
- Projection is 2.8 saves above the 25.5 line, an estimated 10.9% threshold edge.
- Wallstedt is confirmed to start; the live DraftKings quote is -120, with the player explicitly listed for this game.
- Wallstedt's early-season workload is only three starts; his .933 rate is not a stable long-run estimate.
- Brandon Hagel over 3.0 shots on goal0%Push
Taken at −137 on prizepicks
Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 23 shots in his last five games (4.6 per game), 53% above the 3.0 line.
- October game log: 3, 6, 8 shots; he cleared this number in two of three.
- Hagel is projected active on Tampa’s second line and is priced at PrizePicks -137.
- The five-game sample includes one May game; only three observations are from this season.
Questions
Who won Wild vs. Lightning?
The Lightning won 3–2 on Thursday, Oct 8, 2026.