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Predators vs. CanadiensFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalCentre Bell
Predators
5–2Final
Canadiens
Score by period
Team123T
NSH0235
MTL0202

Top model pick, graded

Won

Nashville Predators @ Montréal Canadiens over 6 total goals 53¢

Why Empty Net Over likes it: Projected total 6.97: 6.67 blended scoring baseline plus a conservative 0.30 empty-net script adjustment.

Empty Net OverDown 8% this season · 49 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 3-6 on this game · −36% return

  1. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +29100

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Colorado averages 5.33 goals; Calgary averages 1.00 and allows 5.33, with Colorado winning three straight meetings.
    • ProphetX re-quote is +292 with a $100 maximum; that sits inside the desk's +150 to +600 target.
    • Montreal allows 4.67 goals per game; Demidov and Guhle are on IR, and both teams are 1-1-1.
  2. Nick Suzuki over 2.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +106 on FanDuel

    NHL Shot Volume HunterDown 10% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 21:05 average TOI with 3:35 average power-play time supports stable top-line deployment.
    • Nashville allows 32.33 SOG per game, third-highest leaguewide and inside the bottom-10 defense group.
    • His 2.67 SOG average is below three; the play depends on attempts converting to shots on net.
  3. Montréal Canadiens −1.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 39¢ on Polymarket US

    Rung SeamDown 29% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The full-game ladder prices MTL 2+, 3+, 4+ wins at 0.39, 0.27, 0.13.
    • Strongest-favorite base rates are approximately 43%, 29%, and 13%; the 1.5 rung is 4 points under that shape.
    • NHL.com projects Juuse Saros for Nashville and confirms Jacob Fowler starts for Montréal.
    • The 4-point seam is exactly the brief's threshold, so normal hockey variance can erase the edge.
  4. Nashville Predators @ Montréal Canadiens over 6 total goals
    +89%Won

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Empty Net OverDown 25% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Projected total 6.97: 6.67 blended scoring baseline plus a conservative 0.30 empty-net script adjustment.
    • Montréal is a -154 ProphetX moneyline favourite, satisfying the modest-margin one-goal game-script gate.
    • Recent goal margins are compact: Montréal -2, -1, +1; Nashville -2, -1, +1 across their first three games.
    • Both projected starters remain unconfirmed; official preview lists Juuse Saros and Jacob Dobes, while late status can change.
  5. Montréal Canadiens to win
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    Scratch TapeDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Samuel Montembeault was expected to start, but his Oct. 7 practice injury is confirmed; Jacob Fowler is confirmed in.
    • Fowler's 2025-26 .9085 save rate beat Montembeault's .8724 over 17 versus 23 starts.
    • At roughly 26.9 shots per 60, the historical goalie substitution implies about 0.99 fewer Montreal goals against; Fowler's 100% expected workload matters.
    • The goalie comparison is last-season data: Fowler's 17-game NHL sample is thin and may regress.
  6. Game total over 6.5
    +113%Won

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7.2-goal mean: current-season team GF/GA rates imply 3.5 goals per side before the +0.2 empty-net adjustment.
    • Pinnacle's 6.0 total clears the desk's maximum sharp-book number, while Montréal's -159 moneyline is not a blowout profile.
    • The team-rate sample is only three games per side, so the 7.2 mean is noisy.
Show all 9 picks
  1. Game total over 5.5
    +72%Won

    Taken at 58¢ on Polymarket US

    Empty Net MathUp 50% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 7.2-goal mean: current-season team GF/GA rates imply 3.5 goals per side before the +0.2 empty-net adjustment.
    • Pinnacle has Montréal -159 and a 6.0 total, fitting the close-favorite profile where both teams can pull early.
    • Polymarket US is the best posted price: DK -160 and FD -158 on the 5.5 alternate are materially more expensive.
    • The team-rate sample is only three games per side, so the 7.2 mean is noisy.
  2. Game first-period total over 1.5 goals
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 57¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2.67 modeled first-period goals from current period splits: MTL 1.67 GF/1.33 GA, NSH 1.33 GF/1.00 GA.
    • The same period model nests to about 6.87 total goals including 0.2 for empty-net/overtime, consistent with a 6.5, 7.5 game-total environment.
    • The team and period samples cover only three games, so the 2.67 mean may regress sharply toward the 1.76 league baseline.
  3. Chris Kreider over 0.5 points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −137 on prizepicks

    Jay Money PrizePicks MatrixDown 6% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 4 points in 3 games this season: 1.33 per game versus a 0.5 projection
    • Montréal is scoring 4.00 goals per game entering this matchup
    • Nashville has allowed 3.00 goals per game and 32.3 shots against per game
    • Only three games of current-season form; the sample is extremely thin

Questions

Who won Predators vs. Canadiens?

The Predators won 5–2 on Thursday, Oct 8, 2026.

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