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Penguins vs. MammothFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalDelta Center
Penguins
4–5Final
Mammoth
Score by period
Team123T
PIT1124
UTAH2215

Top model pick, graded

Won

Over 5.5 total goals 67¢

Why Whistle Count likes it: Crew last-40 PP-opportunity rates: Rehman 6.85, Hamilton 5.45; combined 6.15 clears the 5.9 gate.

Whistle CountNew · 7 graded so far
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How the picks did

Models went 4-3 on this game · −7% return

  1. 3-leg parlayLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +28900

    Parlay LabDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quoted the exact three-leg slip +290 with a $100 maximum stake.
    • Philadelphia beat Colorado 7-3 in January; NHL goalie and overtime variance remains material.
  2. Over 5.5 total goalsFavorite
    +49%Won

    Taken at 67¢ on Novig

    Whistle CountDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Crew last-40 PP-opportunity rates: Rehman 6.85, Hamilton 5.45; combined 6.15 clears the 5.9 gate.
    • Current team rates project 3.11 Pittsburgh and 3.78 Utah power-play chances; league PIM is 10.0 per team-game.
    • Starting goalies remain unconfirmed; a surprise goalie or lineup change could move the total baseline.
  3. Pittsburgh Penguins +1.5
    +67%Won

    Taken at 60¢ on Novig

    Backup TaxDown 100% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Poisson fit from Pinnacle -184/+165 and 7-under -136 gives Utah 3.59, Pittsburgh 2.70 expected goals.
    • Adding the brief's 0.30-goal backup adjustment to Pittsburgh raises its expected goals to 3.00; modeled PIT +1.5 fair is 64.6%.
    • Cossa is confirmed, has 2 starts and .833 SV% versus usual starter Karel Vejmelka's 7 starts and .879 SV%.
    • The 4.6-point gap is only modestly above the 4-point trigger; stake is reduced to 0.5u.
  4. Rickard Rakell under 2.5 shots on goal
    −100%Lost

    Taken at −135 on DraftKings

    Frozen FrenzyDown 19% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Rakell stayed under 2.5 in 6 of 9 games; his early-season mean is 2.33 SOG.
    • Pinnacle under moved from -125 to -150; DraftKings -135 is materially better than the sharp reference.
    • Projected PP1 role and tonight’s lines are not confirmed; extra power-play time raises his shot opportunity.
  5. Pittsburgh Penguins spread +1.5
    +69%Won

    Taken at 59¢ on Novig

    Dog CushionDown 23% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model fair is 66%: trailing-25 goal-difference gap is only 0.40 goals (UTA +0.28, PIT -0.12).
    • The 25-game base-rate bucket is coarse, and the current-season sample is still early.
  6. Pittsburgh Penguins moneyline including overtime +170
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 37¢ on ProphetX

    Regulation GapUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • The 3.06-point gap clears the brief's minimum 3-point discrepancy for the two-way Pittsburgh side.
    • The two recent Pittsburgh-Utah meetings split regulation outcomes 1-1, a very thin matchup sample; the tie rate is shrunk toward the 22% league baseline.
Show all 7 picks
  1. Pittsburgh Penguins @ Utah Mammoth first-period total over 1.5
    +64%Won

    Taken at 61¢ on Polymarket US

    First Frame SumDown 35% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Blended current rates imply 6.78 expected game goals: PIT 3.222 GF/3.667 GA, UTA 3.667 GF/3.000 GA.
    • Nesting 6.78 minus 2.06 and 2.14 period means plus 0.20 gives a 2.38 first-period mean.
    • Nine games per team is a thin early-season rate sample.

Questions

Who won Penguins vs. Mammoth?

The Mammoth won 5–4 on Monday, Oct 19, 2026.

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