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NHL · 2026-27 · One month in

Which NHL starts are luck?

Boston, Colorado, Seattle and Edmonton are riding bounces. Boston and Edmonton are also slightly outshot, Seattle badly. Calgary is the unlucky one, and Vancouver's start is real.

Snapp AI Analysis · · Games through Oct. 31 (12 to 16 games per team)

Boston, Colorado and Seattle are riding bounces. Calgary is getting none.

Boston, Colorado and Seattle are riding bounces. Calgary is getting none.Scatter of all 32 NHL teams, share of 5-on-5 shot attempts against PDO. The Bruins (48.8%, 105.8), Avalanche (52.1%, 105.4) and Kraken (41.6%, 104.4) sit at the top; the Kraken are also the most outshot team. The Flames sit alone at the bottom (52.1%, 94.5) despite outshooting opponents. The Canucks are near average luck (99.6) but are outshot (43.1%). The Hurricanes lead in shot share (59.4%) at average luck.40%45%50%55%60%9497100103106average luckLucky and outshotLucky and outshootingUnlucky and outshotUnlucky and outshootingShare of 5-on-5 shot attempts (Corsi %)5-on-5 PDO (shooting % + save %)Oilers 10-2-2: 48.2% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 104Capitals 8-4-0: 48.3% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 102.8Canadiens 9-3-2: 53.6% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 102.4Senators 9-5-1: 49% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 102.2Wild 9-3-3: 53.3% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 101.5Lightning 8-3-2: 54.4% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 100.6Islanders 7-5-2: 51% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 100.4Jets 4-7-3: 47.7% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 100.3Rangers 7-6-1: 47.7% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 100Maple Leafs 8-6-2: 46.8% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 99.7Golden Knights 9-5-1: 51.6% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 99.6Devils 9-5-0: 57.4% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 99.5Kings 4-7-2: 49.2% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 99.5Ducks 5-7-1: 47.8% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 99.3Sabres 7-4-3: 52.2% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 99.3Blues 7-6-1: 49.6% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 99.3Blue Jackets 5-7-0: 48.9% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 99.1Mammoth 9-5-0: 55.4% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 98.9Stars 8-5-1: 51.1% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 98.9Penguins 5-7-2: 52.3% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 98.3Red Wings 6-5-3: 53.6% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 98.2Predators 5-4-5: 45.9% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 97.9Panthers 8-4-2: 56% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 97.7Blackhawks 4-9-1: 44.3% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 97.4Sharks 7-7-1: 44.7% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 97Flyers 3-8-4: 43.8% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 96.1Bruins 10-4-1: 48.8% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 105.8Bruins 10-4-1Avalanche 8-5-1: 52.1% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 105.4Avalanche 8-5-1Kraken 8-5-1: 41.6% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 104.4Kraken 8-5-1Hurricanes 11-2-2: 59.4% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 101Hurricanes 11-2-2Canucks 3-12-1: 43.1% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 99.6Canucks 3-12-1Flames 6-8-0: 52.1% of 5-on-5 shot attempts, PDO 94.5Flames 6-8-0
Each logo is a team, 5-on-5, games through Oct. 31. PDO = shooting % + save %; 100 is average luck.

Luck in hockey shows up as PDO: shooting percentage plus save percentage at 5-on-5. The league average is 100. The Bruins are at 105.8, the highest in the NHL, while taking fewer than half of the shot attempts.

Shot share is the part that lasts. The Kraken are lucky *and* the most outshot team in the league. The Flames outshoot opponents and have the NHL's worst PDO. The Hurricanes (11-2-2) are the clean case: the league's best shot share (59.4%) and a near-average 101 PDO, so their record is mostly earned.

Will it last?

Luck fades within weeks. Shot share sticks.

Over the last five seasons, a team's PDO in its first 14 games barely predicted the rest of its season. Its shot share did.

Lucky teams that were outshot fell back; unlucky teams that outshot opponents rose

160 NHL team seasons, 2021-22 to 2025-26. PDO and shot share are 5-on-5. Dashed line: average points % (55.6%).
  • PDO barely carries over: early PDO correlated 0.18 with PDO the rest of the way, and 0.17 with points %.
  • Shot share carries over: 0.72 with itself and 0.49 with points %.
  • Once you know a team's record and shot share, PDO adds nothing to a forecast of the rest of the season.
The goalies

Hot goalies cool off, and Ullmark is already hurt

Much of PDO is save percentage. Goalies who start hot or cold drift back toward their norm, though not all the way.

Ullmark and Fowler are saving far more than last season; Wolf and Lankinen far less

All situations, games through Oct. 31. Top 5 and bottom 5 of the 37 goalies with 150+ shots faced this season and 20+ games last season (plus Fowler, 17 games); numbers are ranks among all 37.
  • History: across 200 goalie seasons since 2021-22, starters at .930 or better over their first 8 starts fell to .909 the rest of the way; those at .880 or worse rose to .896.
  • Linus Ullmark (.945, last season .891) is on injured reserve, expected to miss one to two weeks (as of Nov. 1).
  • Dustin Wolf is at .847 after .910 and .899 the last two seasons, and Calgary's better goalie so far, Devin Cooley (.912), is on injured reserve.
  • Vancouver has both ends: Leevi Meriläinen at .898, Kevin Lankinen at .812.
Team by team

Who is shooting and saving above their level

Seattle Kraken8-5-1 · the least real
41.6%5-on-5 shot share, 32nd
13.6%5-on-5 shooting, league 9.7%
7 on 16Freddy Gaudreau, goals on shots
  • Gaudreau shot 10.5% over the last three seasons. Mackie Samoskevich has 6 goals on 23 shots after 9.0%.
  • Seattle's goal differential is 0 counting two shootout wins. Jared McCann is out about 10 weeks (as of Nov. 1).
Boston Bruins10-4-1 · lucky, still good
94.2%5-on-5 save %, 1st (league 90.3%)
48.8%5-on-5 shot share
.912Jeremy Swayman save %, last season .907
  • Shooting and saving above league rates are worth about 19 goals of Boston's +18 at 5-on-5.
  • Some of it is real: Boston's 5-on-5 PDO was 101.7 over the last three seasons. Against that, the luck is about 13 goals.
Edmonton Oilers10-2-2 · hot shooting, real stars
13.2%5-on-5 shooting
33%power play (16 for 48)
9 on 31Vasily Podkolzin, after 9.9% the last three seasons
  • Leon Draisaitl has 12 goals on 49 shots, Connor McDavid 8 on 36. Edmonton has 48.2% of shot attempts, below even.
Colorado Avalanche8-5-1 · lucky and good
14.0%5-on-5 shooting, 1st
52.1%5-on-5 shot share
12 on 28Artturi Lehkonen, after 15.8%
  • About 18 goals of shooting and saving luck, close to Boston, but Colorado outshoots opponents, so the record should mostly hold.
Calgary Flames6-8-0 · the unlucky one
94.55-on-5 PDO, 32nd
6.4%5-on-5 shooting, 30th
.847Dustin Wolf save %
  • Calgary has 52.1% of 5-on-5 attempts, yet a -16 goal differential. At its own three-season shooting and save rates it would be about 15 goals better.
Is it over?

Vancouver and Chicago aren't unlucky. That's the bad news.

The Canucks (3-12-1, -25) sit at a neutral 99.6 PDO and the Blackhawks (4-9-1, -22) at 97.4. Both are outshot. History says teams like that rarely climb back.

Of 25 teams this bad after 14 games, only two finished above 92 points

Of 25 teams this bad after 14 games, only two finished above 92 pointsScatter of 25 slow starters since 2021-22, early shot share against final points. Only the 2023-24 Oilers (57.5% shot share, 104 points) and 2023-24 Predators (47.7%, 99 points) cleared 92 points. Most teams that were outshot early finished between 47 and 77 points.40%45%50%55%60%5060708090100110playoff line, 92Outshot earlyOutshooting earlyShare of 5-on-5 shot attempts, first 14 gamesFinal points2021-22 Coyotes: 11% of points after 14 games, 46.53% shot share, finished with 57 points2021-22 Blackhawks: 29% of points after 14 games, 44.26% shot share, finished with 68 points2021-22 Canadiens: 25% of points after 14 games, 52.04% shot share, finished with 55 points2021-22 Senators: 32% of points after 14 games, 45.49% shot share, finished with 73 points2021-22 Kraken: 32% of points after 14 games, 51.8% shot share, finished with 60 points2022-23 Ducks: 32% of points after 14 games, 43.3% shot share, finished with 58 points2022-23 Blue Jackets: 32% of points after 14 games, 44.57% shot share, finished with 59 points2022-23 Predators: 39% of points after 14 games, 51.35% shot share, finished with 92 points2022-23 Senators: 39% of points after 14 games, 51.21% shot share, finished with 86 points2022-23 Sharks: 32% of points after 14 games, 48.82% shot share, finished with 60 points2022-23 Canucks: 39% of points after 14 games, 47.3% shot share, finished with 83 points2023-24 Blue Jackets: 39% of points after 14 games, 47.48% shot share, finished with 66 points2023-24 Flames: 36% of points after 14 games, 53.65% shot share, finished with 81 points2023-24 Blackhawks: 36% of points after 14 games, 42.73% shot share, finished with 52 points2023-24 Sharks: 18% of points after 14 games, 41.73% shot share, finished with 47 points2024-25 Blackhawks: 39% of points after 14 games, 46.84% shot share, finished with 61 points2024-25 Canadiens: 36% of points after 14 games, 43.21% shot share, finished with 91 points2024-25 Predators: 32% of points after 14 games, 51.7% shot share, finished with 68 points2024-25 Flyers: 39% of points after 14 games, 45.02% shot share, finished with 76 points2024-25 Kraken: 39% of points after 14 games, 47.93% shot share, finished with 76 points2024-25 Sharks: 36% of points after 14 games, 45.29% shot share, finished with 52 points2025-26 Flames: 29% of points after 14 games, 54.01% shot share, finished with 77 points2025-26 Blues: 36% of points after 14 games, 50.51% shot share, finished with 86 points2023-24 Oilers: 32% of points after 14 games, 57.52% shot share, finished with 104 points2023-24 Oilers, 1042023-24 Predators: 36% of points after 14 games, 47.7% shot share, finished with 99 points2023-24 Predators, 99
NHL teams at a .400 points percentage or worse after 14 games, 2021-22 to 2025-26. Dashed line: the 16th-best point total, 91 to 97 in those seasons.
  • At Chicago's pace (.321) or worse: 12 teams since 2021-22. Only the 2023-24 Oilers, with 57.5% of shot attempts, reached the playoff range.
  • Vancouver's .219 is worse than all but two of those teams, with 43.1% of attempts.
  • To reach 92 points, Vancouver needs about 64% of the remaining points and Chicago 61%. Only six teams finished above 64% last season.
The conversation

Others flag Boston's luck. Seattle has more to lose.

  • RG.org's Sergey Demidov (Oct. 28) on Boston: "A 9-3-1 record on that profile is the league's prime regression candidate." On Calgary: "This is the Canadian team the numbers like most to improve."
  • NHL.com's Super 16 (Oct. 29) ranks Boston 3rd and Seattle 14th. Dan Rosen on Seattle: "They're leaky. They are allowing too many shots on goal."

What the data adds: Boston should be fine after its luck fades, because its shot share is close to even. Seattle is the bigger drop: lucky, outshot more than anyone, and at a level goal differential already.

From here

Seattle and Edmonton have the furthest to fall

Projecting from record and shot share, the four lucky teams all slow down. Only the Kraken drop out of the playoff range, and the Flames climb back toward it.

Edmonton, Boston and Colorado still project as playoff teams. Seattle doesn't.

From points % and 5-on-5 shot share after 14 games, fit on 160 team seasons (2021-22 to 2025-26). Bands: typical miss (±8.5 points %, about ±11 points), which held on seasons left out of the fit. Ignores injuries and schedule.

What would change this: Seattle winning the shot battle without McCann, or Wolf returning to his .900 level.

FAQ

Questions people ask

What is PDO in hockey?

PDO is a team's shooting percentage plus its save percentage, usually at 5-on-5. The league average is 100, and teams far from it almost always drift back.

Are the Bruins for real in 2026-27?

Partly. Boston has the NHL's highest 5-on-5 PDO (105.8), which won't last, but its shot share is close to even (48.8%), so it still projects to about 99 points.

Are the Seattle Kraken good this season?

Their record is ahead of their play. Seattle is 8-5-1 with a goal differential of 0 and the lowest 5-on-5 shot share in the NHL (41.6%), propped up by 13.6% shooting. It projects to about 83 points.

Why are the Calgary Flames losing?

Mostly bad luck. Calgary outshoots opponents (52.1% of 5-on-5 attempts) but has the NHL's lowest PDO (94.5): 6.4% shooting and an .847 save percentage from Dustin Wolf.

Can the Canucks still make the playoffs?

It is very unlikely. Vancouver is 3-12-1, outshot, and not unlucky (99.6 PDO). Of 12 teams since 2021-22 at a .321 pace or worse after 14 games, only the 2023-24 Oilers reached the playoff range.

How we did this: Snapp's NHL warehouse (NHL API boxes and play-by-play), regular-season games through Oct. 31, 2026. PDO = 5-on-5 shooting % + 5-on-5 save % on shots on goal; shot share (Corsi %) = 5-on-5 shot attempts for / (for + against). Luck goals = 5-on-5 goals scored and allowed versus league-average shooting (9.68%) on the same shots. Expected goals by shot location (our own simple model, not a full xG model): 2023-24 to 2025-26 5-on-5 goal rate by 10-foot distance band and rebound flag, applied to 2026-27 unblocked attempts; it ignores shot type and passing. History: 160 team seasons, 2021-22 to 2025-26, first 14 games vs the rest; the projection regresses rest-of-season points % on early points % and shot share (typical miss ±0.085 points %, about ±11 points, confirmed by leaving each season out of the fit). Goalie history: 200 seasons with 30+ starts, first 8 starts vs the rest. Injuries: BALLDONTLIE injury feed as of Nov. 1. Score-state shot shares (tied, ahead, behind, close) and goalie save % are from NHL.com's season reports. Goal differential counts shootout winners, as the standings do. Three-season baselines are 2023-24 to 2025-26 at 5-on-5.

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