This one is tight. City control games through midfield and territory, so the match likely turns on whether Arsenal's press can force turnovers in the final third. Arsenal have the advantage on set pieces, which is where a low-chance game gets decided. Expect a cagey match with not many clear looks either way.

xG, or expected goals, grades every chance by how often shots from that spot get scored. Add them up and you get a fair read on who created more, not just who got lucky. It is analysis, not a crystal ball, but it tells you whether a scoreline matched the run of play.