FinalCanvas Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BYU | 21 | 10 | 7 | 3 | 41 |
| CSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 23 |
Top model pick, graded
WonBYU Cougars spread −16.5 53¢
Why Saturday Board Pairs likes it: 2026 sample (2 games; 2025 prior-season blend 14 games) gives BYU +0.40 EPA/play and .5733 success versus CSU defense +0.01 EPA allowed.
Saturday Board PairsDown 4% this season · 567 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 5-7 on this game · −18% return
- 1H total over 27.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsKickoff Script, Two QuartersWhy 2 models like it
Kickoff Script- BYU and CSU average 3.95 and 3.68 points per drive; roughly 4.0, 4.2 drives per team projects about 30, 32 first-half points.
- BYU's 57.3% success rate and CSU's +14.5% PROE support efficient, aggressive opening scripts.
- The 2026 sample contains only two games per team, and weak-opponent scoring can regress sharply.
Two Quarters- Blended pace is 27.52 sec/play; observed drive rates imply 11.5 combined first-half drives, weather-adjusted to 11.2.
- Only two games per team; the 0.7-point projection gap is small and first-half scoring variance dominates.
- Colorado State Rams spread +17−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model projects BYU margin 16.1 with SD 17; Colorado State +17 wins 51.0%, with 2.0% push mass.
- Pinnacle 17 is Colorado State +102 / BYU -115; devigged Colorado State probability is 48.1%, model gap 2.9 points.
- Current EPA is nearly level (.409 Colorado State offense, .401 BYU); CSU averages 73.5 plays at a 25.23-second pace.
- BYU's blended prior efficiency is stronger; a BYU win by 18 or more loses the ticket.
- BYU Cougars 1H spread NO 13.5−100%Lost
Taken at 62¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pinnacle full-game BYU -17.0 to -17.5 implies a 1H mean of 8.75.
- 2024-25 FBS regular-season sample: 1,761 margins, SD 14.92; sqrt-half scaling yields 1H SD 10.55.
- Only two current games inform team efficiency; the mean is primarily anchored to the full-game sharp line.
- BYU Cougars spread −16.5+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 sample (2 games; 2025 prior-season blend 14 games) gives BYU +0.40 EPA/play and .5733 success versus CSU defense +0.01 EPA allowed.
- BYU’s current defense allows -0.07 EPA/play versus CSU’s +0.41 offense; the matchup’s defensive efficiency gap favors BYU.
- PFF 2026 card: BYU 94.4 overall/83.6 defense versus CSU 79.2/64.2; explosive rate also favors BYU .1789 to .1431.
- CSU’s offense has produced +0.41 EPA/play despite a lower .4829 success rate, so its early explosiveness can keep this inside the number.
- Colorado State +17 spread−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Colorado State +17 pushes if BYU wins by exactly 17; Colorado State +17.5 would win that result.
- ProphetX quotes Colorado State +17 at 48.78¢ (+105) versus +17.5 at 50.98¢ (-104), only a 2.20¢ price gap.
- The +17 rung is still worse than +17.5; BYU wins by 18 or more and both contracts lose.
- Colorado State Rams spread +17.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Book levels are 3 versus 3; the two core measures agree, while the thin side clears the few-hundred-dollar size check.
- Directional coherence: backing Colorado State +17.5, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
- Book-level corroboration is absent at 3-3, so the signal relies on two measures rather than all three.
Show all 11 picks
- BYU −17.5+104%Won
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- BYU's 2026 profile is +0.40 offensive EPA/play and -0.07 defensive EPA/play; Colorado State is +0.41 and +0.01.
- PFF's latest 2026 team card grades BYU 94.4 overall versus Colorado State 79.2, including an 83.6, 64.2 defensive gap.
- The 17.5/18 rung pair is away from the primary 3/7/10 key numbers; the 2014, 25 histogram shows 362 games at margin 17 and 254 at 18, while the sharp reference sits near BYU -17.5.
- The market's main number is 18, so the projection edge is modest and a one-score late margin makes variance decisive.
- Legend Glasker first touchdown scorer−100%Lost
Taken at +1100 on FanDuel
CFB Top-25 First-TD EdgeDown 100% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Estimated probability 12%; fair price about +733 versus FanDuel +1100 (8.3% implied).
- Fallback current efficiency favors BYU: +0.40 EPA/play, 57.3% success rate and 3.95 points/drive; CSU defense allows +0.01 EPA/play.
- Glasker is the listed No. 1 starting receiver, has receiving and rushing scoring paths, and opened BYU's 2026 scoring with a 9-yard rush.
- LJ Martin had 20 carries last week and Bear Bachmeier has rushed for a touchdown in each game, creating strong goal-line competition.
- Colorado State Rams 1st-half winner−100%Lost
Taken at 18¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Matchup EPA differential favors CSU's script: 0.48 adjusted EPA/play versus BYU's 0.39.
- CSU averages 73.5 plays at 25.0 seconds/play with +14.5% PROE across two 2026 games.
- Model estimates roughly 23% CSU first-half win probability versus a 17.5% three-way Kalshi reference.
- Only two 2026 games per team; opponent quality makes the EPA and scoring samples fragile.
- Game total points under 52−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- ProphetX full-game main total is 52.5, while team-total rungs sum to 52.0.
- 2026 BYU averages 29.81 seconds/play, +0.05 PROE, 17.9% explosive rate, and 57.3% success across two games.
- Colorado State averages 24.99 seconds/play, +0.14 PROE, 14.3% explosive rate, and 48.3% success; BYU’s current defensive EPA allowed averages -0.07.
- The 0.5-point venue self-reference gap is modest; variance dominates near the number.
- BYU Cougars spread −17.5+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- cfb_predictor projects BYU by 19.66 points, 2.15 above the ProphetX 17.5 spread.
- BYU is 2-0 and has scored 91 points; the model still makes the matchup a nearly 20-point BYU edge after accounting for opponent strength.
- The model edge is only 2.15 points, so ordinary scoring variance can erase it.
Questions
Who won BYU vs. Colorado State?
BYU won 41-23 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.