FinalDKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UTSA | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 |
| TEX | 10 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 30 |
Top model pick, graded
WonTexas Longhorns 1H spread NO 20.5 56¢
Why Early Cover likes it: 1,853 completed FBS games (2024, 25) produce SD 14.77; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.44.
Early CoverDown 3% this season · 435 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 4-3 on this game · +12% return
- UTSA Roadrunners spread +30+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsHouse Rules, Key Number CFBWhy 2 models like it
House Rules- UTSA +30 pushes if Texas wins by exactly 30; adjacent UTSA +29.5 loses.
- ProphetX UTSA +30 is -102 (50.5¢) versus +29.5 at -101 (50.25¢), only a 0.25-point implied gap.
- UTSA +30 still loses whenever Texas wins by 31 or more; the push only refunds exactly 30.
Key Number CFB- 30 is a non-key rung; the ladder prices that half-point as more discrete mass than the empirical margin distribution supports.
- 2026 EPA gap is modest: Texas offense +0.32 versus UTSA +0.23; both teams are 2-0 with explosive rates near 0.12.
- Texas's PFF edge is substantial: 89.5 overall versus UTSA 74.6, and home explosive plays can clear 30 quickly.
- Texas Longhorns 1H spread NO 20.5+79%Won
Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 1,853 completed FBS games (2024, 25) produce SD 14.77; sqrt-half scaling gives first-half SD 10.44.
- Pinnacle full-game Texas -30 scales to a +15.0 first-half mean, not a halved standard deviation.
- college modal margins are 3, 7, and 10; the 21-point cluster is only 65 of 1,853, not an NFL-imported assumption.
- Only two 2026 games inform the team efficiency sample; Texas and UTSA pace/PPD estimates are noisy.
- Texas Longhorns spread −29.5−100%Lost
Taken at −110 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 37.6-point independent projection gives Texas an 8.1-point cushion over -29.5.
- Texas PFF overall grade is 89.5 versus UTSA's 74.6; pass-block grades are 93.2 versus 29.8.
- Texas game-center materials list Arch Manning; he has 500 passing yards and 5 TDs through two games.
- Texas may throttle back with a lead, creating a backdoor-cover risk for UTSA.
- Over 31.5 1H points scored−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- 36.4-point raw first-half projection: averaged PPD multiplied by each team's observed first-half drive count.
- Texas averaged 5.0 first-half drives; UTSA averaged 5.5 across the two 2026 games.
- Both offenses posted positive EPA/play and above-50% success rates; UTSA's 20.78-second Week 2 pace supports possessions.
- Only two 2026 games per team, below the preferred 3-5-game coverage tier.
- Game 1H total over 31.5−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Pace: Texas averaged 76.5 plays at 26.43 seconds; UTSA 68.0 at 24.14; blended pace is 25.28 seconds.
- Only two 2026 games per team; Texas PPD includes a 5.78 Week 1 outlier and may regress.
- Game total under 57.5+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 6% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Texas owns a 0.00 defensive EPA/play mark through two games, a strong suppressor against UTSA's 0.23 offensive EPA/play.
- My matchup range is 55-57 points; the posted 57.5 is still above that range despite Texas' 47-point Week 2 total.
- Texas averages 41.5 points through two games and could clear most of the number by itself in a runaway.
Questions
Who won UTSA vs. Texas?
Texas won 30-6 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.