Updated
FinalGlass Bowl
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEM | 10 | 14 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 48 |
| TOL | 7 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 7 | 49 |
Top model pick, graded
WonToledo Rockets to win −205
Why D1 Winner likes it: Current-season per-play average: Toledo +0.32 offensive EPA/play versus Temple +0.06; Toledo defensive EPA allowed −0.18 versus Temple +0.17.
D1 WinnerDown 8% this season · 237 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 1-5 on this game · −75% return
- Temple Owls under 48.5 total points−100%Lost
Taken at −106 on FanDuel
Tempo GapUp 7% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Model: 11.0 projected drives per side, about 129 total plays; current game-drive samples average 20 total Temple games and 24 total Toledo games.
- Load-bearing factor: possession count, with the PPD cross-check also pointing under; 2026 offensive explosive rates are modest at 12.7% Temple and 14.1% Toledo.
- Only two 2026 advanced rows per team, so this is partial coverage and heavily exposed to early-season sample error.
- Game total under 49−100%Lost
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 49 pushes at exactly 49 and loses only at 50+; under 49.5 wins at 49.
- Under 49 still loses on 50 or more points; the historical push frequency does not forecast this game's scoring.
- Toledo −7−100%Lost
Taken at 42¢ on ProphetX
House RulesUp 1% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Toledo −7 pushes at exactly a 7-point Toledo win; −7.5 loses there; leg matches exact contract.
- Broad historical frequency is not matchup-specific; this game may have a different 7-point margin rate.
- Toledo Rockets wins 1st Half−100%Lost
Taken at 58¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptDown 2% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Toledo averaged 0.32 offensive EPA/play and 3.20 points per drive across its two 2026 games.
- Temple averaged 1.76 points per drive; its latest game fell to 1.11, while Toledo's defense allowed −0.18 EPA/play.
- Toledo's home opening-script matchup attacks a Temple defense allowing +0.20 EPA/play; the first-half model is about 63% Toledo.
- Toledo's pace sample includes a 5.6-second play-time outlier, making first-half drive counts unstable.
- Toledo Rockets to win+49%Won
Taken at −205 on FanDuel
D1 WinnerDown 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- Current-season per-play average: Toledo +0.32 offensive EPA/play versus Temple +0.06; Toledo defensive EPA allowed −0.18 versus Temple +0.17.
- PFF 2026 grades favor Toledo: 80.9 passing grade and 85.5 special teams versus Temple's 47.9 and 70.8.
- Toledo is at home with both teams on seven days' rest; no game-specific injury designation is on file.
- The edge is only 0.35 points above the hard threshold; normal model error can erase it.
- Toledo Rockets spread −6.5−100%Lost
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBDown 6% last 30 daysWhy it likes it
- 2026 EPA/play favors Toledo: offense +0.32 vs Temple +0.03; defense allowed −0.18 vs +0.20.
- Toledo’s 2026 PFF card leads 92.0, 84.4 overall and 80.9, 47.9 in passing grades.
- Key-number density: ProphetX −6.5 is +115 (46.51¢) versus −7 at +136 (42.37¢); exact 7-point margins occurred 827 of 10,560 CFB games (7.8%), favoring the −6.5 rung.
- Most likely loss: Temple keeps the game within one score, with the exact 7-point margin the key-number danger.
Questions
Who won Temple vs. Toledo?
Toledo won 49-48 on Saturday, Sep 19, 2026.