Montana State vs. IdahoFinal score and model picks, graded
FinalKibbie Dome
Montana State5–0
34–35Final
Idaho0–4
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MONT | 10 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 34 |
| IDAH | 7 | 13 | 0 | 15 | 35 |
Top model pick, graded
WonIdaho Vandals spread +14.5 51¢
Why Drift likes it: Model 54.0% on Idaho +14.5: MSU efficiency advantage is reduced by four confirmed offensive/defensive absences.
DriftUp 2% return this season · 537 picks
Get the next picks firstHow the picks did
Models went 3-3 on this game · +156% return
- Idaho Vandals to win+407%Won
Taken at +407 on DraftKings
2 modelsCFB Moonshot Singles, Long Way HomeWhy 2 models like it
CFB Moonshot Singles- Idaho is home after a 14-day gap, while Montana State has played five games in 2026.
- Kibbie Dome is indoor, removing ordinary weather volatility from the upset path.
- Idaho is 0-4 while Montana State is 5-0 this season.
Long Way Home- Live warehouse state is only Montana State 10, Idaho 7 at 5:37 of the first quarter, not a late-game deficit warranting such an extreme outright price.
- The most likely loss is Montana State's talent and early explosive-play edge turning the 10-7 game into the pregame favorite's expected blowout.
- Idaho Vandals spread +14.5+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Model 54.0% on Idaho +14.5: MSU efficiency advantage is reduced by four confirmed offensive/defensive absences.
- Pinnacle same-rung -116/-114 devigs to 50.2% for Idaho +14.5.
- Pinnacle home-cover probability moved 51.0% open to 50.2% current, -0.8p: slight against, treated as flat.
- Current-season efficiency sample is thin: two Montana State rows and one Idaho row in the warehouse.
- Montana State Bobcats under 55.5 total points (55 is a win; no push)−100%Lost
Taken at 72¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Under 55.5 wins at exactly 55; this half-point contract cannot push.
- exactly 55 total points occurred 191 of 5,115 games, or 3.734%.
- ProphetX under 55 is 71.43¢ (-250); under 55.5 is 72.22¢ (-260), only a 0.79¢ premium.
- The 3.734% bucket is league-wide CFB history, not a Montana State, Idaho-specific distribution.
- Montana State Bobcats spread −17−100%Lost
Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Montana State -17 pushes at exactly a 17-point win; adjacent -17.5 loses there.
- 3.491% historical NCAAF exact-17 margin frequency: 362 of 10,371 games, 2014-25.
- ProphetX prices -17 at 44.44c (+125) versus -17.5 at 48.31c (+107), despite the whole-number rung's push protection.
- The 3.491% push rate is unconditional NCAAF history, not matchup-specific.
- Montana State Bobcats spread −14.5−100%Lost
Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX
Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 daysWhy it likes it
- Montana State is 4-0 with a +22.6 average margin; Idaho is 0-5 with a -16.0 average margin.
- EPA gap: Montana State +0.126 offense and -0.114 defense allowed; Idaho -0.143 offense and +0.578 defense allowed.
- The 38.6-point form-margin gap supports a Montana State cover at the 14.5 main number, not merely a win.
- Most likely loss: Idaho scores late against a prevent defense and backdoor-covers 14.5.
Questions
Who won Montana State vs. Idaho?
The Idaho won 35–34 on Friday, Oct 2, 2026.