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Southern Miss vs. TroyFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalVeterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
Southern Miss1–3
34–55Final
Troy2–2
Score by period
Team1234T
USM0720734
TROY1714101455

How the picks did

Models went 0-22 on this game · −100% return

  1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 23¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsDrift, Long Way Home
    Why 2 models like it
    Drift
    • Four-game efficiency: Southern Miss +0.110 offensive EPA/play, .471 success rate and .113 explosive rate versus Troy’s -.008, .443 and .110.
    • Personnel gate resolved: Landry Lyddy is set to start with Ethan Hampton out; Troy’s starter is Goose Crowder.
    • Troy owns the defensive EPA edge: -.048 allowed versus Southern Miss +.083, plus home field.
    Long Way Home
    • Southern Miss averages +0.110 offensive EPA/play versus Troy's -0.003 through four 2026 games.
    • Southern Miss averages 24.5 points and a 0.471 success rate; Troy averages 21.3 points and 0.446 success.
    • Southern Miss allows 29.5 points per game with +0.082 defensive EPA/play; Troy's defense is -0.042.
  2. Total Points under 51.52 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, Tempo Board
    Why 2 models like it
    Saturday Board Pairs
    • Current scoring averages combine to 45.75 points per game (Southern Miss 24.50, Troy 21.25), 5.75 below the 51.5 threshold.
    • Pace is not an obvious over trigger: Southern Miss averages 23.94 seconds per play and Troy 26.66, with 150.5 combined offensive plays per game.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss's defense has allowed +0.0946 EPA/play this season, creating short fields that push Troy and the total over.
    Tempo Board
    • 2026 current sample (4 games/team): combined scoring averages 45.75 points, 5.75 below 51.5.
    • Tempo remains moderate: Southern Miss 23.94 and Troy 26.80 seconds/play; neither offense projects an extreme possession surge.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss has allowed +0.0945 defensive EPA/play, giving Troy a path above its 31.5 team-total anchor.
  3. Southern Miss Golden Eagles spread +10
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    DriftUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Model 56.0% cover: four-game margin baseline is Southern Miss -5.0 versus Troy -0.25, adjusted for efficiency and home field.
    • Southern Miss leads offense: +0.124 EPA/play, 47.1% success, 11.3% explosive rate versus Troy's -0.003, 44.3%, 11.0%.
    • Troy's defense is materially stronger: -0.0425 EPA allowed versus Southern Miss +0.0946, with home field.
  4. Under 52.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 150.5 combined current-season plays and 24.0/26.8 seconds per play point to roughly 21, 22 drives; adjusted scoring centers near 50.5.
    • Most likely loss: one quarterback converts short fields and explosives into enough efficient scoring to reach 53 points.
  5. Southern Miss Golden Eagles +13.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 59¢ on Polymarket US

    Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
  6. Game total under 52.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 scoring averages combine to 45.75 points; the composite projects approximately 48-49.
    • Troy's defense allows -0.0425 EPA/play, while Southern Miss' defense allows +0.0822; the matchup favors Troy control over a shootout.
    • Southern Miss starter Ethan Hampton is out; SI reports Landry Lyddy as the replacement starter, adding downside to the visitor offense.
    • Lyddy just threw for 243 yards and 3 TD with no interceptions, so the replacement may sustain Southern Miss scoring.
Show all 20 picks
  1. Southern Miss Golden Eagles spread +10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • PFF card also favors Southern Miss offense 73.1 to Troy's 60.4, while both current samples clear the four-game coverage gate.
    • Personnel gate passed: Landry Lyddy was named Southern Miss's new starter; Goose Crowder led Troy's passing attempts in all four games and is listed at QB in Troy's official preview.
    • Most likely loss: Troy's stronger defense controls Lyddy and the Trojans turn their home favorite status into a 14-plus-point win.
  2. Southern Miss Golden Eagles under 52.5 total points
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket US

    Picks With Pink Grading SystemUp 11% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 13 of the teams’ last 20 games stayed under 52.5; the combined L5 rate is 9 of 10.
    • Current-season under rate is 7 of 8; Troy is 4-for-4 and Southern Miss is 3-for-4.
    • Pinnacle’s devigged reference implies only about 51.4% under, directly opposing the PWP estimate.
  3. Southern Miss Golden Eagles 1st-half winnerLong shot
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 25¢ on Kalshi

    Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • My four-game script read: Southern Miss posted +0.124 offensive EPA/play versus Troy's -0.003.
    • Southern Miss led recent success rate 47.1% to 44.6% and PROE +14.0% to +9.3%.
    • Southern Miss averaged 23.94 seconds/play versus Troy's 26.80, supporting more early possessions for the underdog.
    • Troy's defense averaged -0.0425 EPA/play allowed versus Southern Miss's +0.0945, a substantial matchup edge for the home team.
  4. Southern Mississippi +10.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX

    Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Two of three measures agree: thin-at-quote and deep-in-total; book levels tie 3-3 and do not provide extra confirmation.
    • REFERENCE is not an independent reference; one stale quote, whale, or data-entry error could distort the read.
  5. Southern Miss Golden Eagles game total under 51.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Current-season scoring blend projects roughly 47, 49 points: Southern Miss 24.5 scored/29.5 allowed, Troy 21.25/21.5.
    • Troy averages -0.003 EPA/play and a .446 success rate; Southern Miss QB Ethan Hampton and two WRs are reported out.
    • Only four current-season games per team; opponent adjustment and variance remain limited.
  6. Southern Miss–Troy game total under 51.5 (exact 51 wins, no push)
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX's half-point under 51.5 wins when the game total is exactly 51; it cannot push.
    • ProphetX quotes under 51 at 48.78c (+105) versus under 51.5 at 50.74c (-103): only a 1.96-point quoted gap.
    • Under 51.5 loses at 52 or more; the whole-number comparison may reflect team-specific information absent from the aggregate sample.
  7. Southern Mississippi +10 spread
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • ProphetX quotes Southern Mississippi +10 at 49.75c versus +10.5 at 53.49c; the whole-rung discount is larger than the observed push adjustment.
    • Venue self-reference only: both comparison prices are ProphetX offers, not an independent sharp reference.
  8. Southern Miss Golden Eagles spread +9.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX

    Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Southern Miss 2026 offense is +0.1097 EPA/play versus Troy -0.0030; PFF offense grades are 73.1 versus 60.4.
    • DK and Pinnacle both reference Troy -10, corroborating the projection's near-key-number spread rather than a Troy runaway assumption.
    • Southern Miss defense has allowed +0.0822 EPA/play this season, leaving a clear path to a two-score Troy margin.
  9. Total Points under 51
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX

    Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 current sample (4 games each): Southern Miss averaged 24.04 seconds/play and Troy 26.88, with only 11.2% and 11.0% explosive-play rates.
    • Troy's defense allowed -0.042 EPA/play versus Southern Miss's +0.082 allowed; the matchup points to Troy suppressing the less efficient offense.
    • Current 2026 scoring averages combine to 45.8 points per game; the 51-point rung leaves room above that recent output.
    • Most likely loss: Southern Miss's +0.082 defensive EPA allowed lets Troy turn its home matchup into efficient or explosive scoring drives.
  10. Southern Miss Golden Eagles +10
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

    ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Across four 2026 games, Southern Miss owns +0.110 offensive EPA/play and a 47.1% success rate versus Troy's -0.003 and 44.6%.
    • Southern Miss's 0.113 explosive-play rate is slightly above Troy's 0.110, supporting competitiveness with a full ten points.
    • Current local reporting confirms Landry Lyddy for injured Ethan Hampton; Troy is expected to start healthy Goose Crowder.
    • Troy's defense has been materially better: -0.042 defensive EPA/play allowed versus Southern Miss at +0.082.
  11. Troy Trojans first-half spread NO 6.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi

    Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Tier: LEAN; EDGE CLASS: PROJECTION.
    • Pinnacle full-game Troy -10 scales to a +5.0 first-half mean.
    • 1,638 2025, 26 CFB finals give SD(abs margin) 16.27; sqrt-half SD 11.50; NO probability 55.2%.
    • No first-half empirical sample; mapping full-game absolute-margin dispersion to this matchup is approximate.
  12. Game first-half total under 27.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

    Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • 2026 through four games, combined pace is 25.46 sec/play; teams average 12.50 and 12.75 drives per game.
    • Baseline PPD is 1.862; average PROE plus explosive rate is .1403+.1126 for Southern Miss and .0925+.1096 for Troy, yielding a specific 11.4% first-half uplift and 24.9 projected points.
    • Pinnacle full-game 52.5 scaled by 11.99 projected 1H drives versus 25.25 full-game drives and the 11.4% first-half uplift gives 26.4; both references sit below 27.5.
    • A single explosive play, turnover return, or short field can clear 27.5 despite the drive projection.
  13. Troy Trojans team total under 30.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 47¢ on Polymarket US

    CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • Troy has scored 21.25 points per game with -0.003 offensive EPA/play and a .446 success rate through four games.
    • Troy’s 60.4 offense grade and 53.7 passing grade lag Southern Miss’s 71.0 defense grade.
    • Southern Miss has allowed 29.5 points per game, and one explosive Troy outing can clear 30.5.
  14. Southern Miss Golden Eagles spread +7.5
    −100%Lost

    Taken at 45¢ on ProphetX

    Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
    Why it likes it
    • A four-game scoring blend projects Troy by roughly 5.4 points: Southern averages 24.5 scored/29.5 allowed; Troy 21.3/21.5.
    • Southern's losses came at Auburn and Tulane; Troy's losses came at Missouri and Utah State, making the raw records context-dependent.
    • The +7.5 cushion is about two points above the simple projection; this is a thin, plus-price projection rather than a sharp-confirmed play.
    • Most likely loss: Troy wins by 8 or more at home after Southern's defense allows another multi-score performance.

Questions

Who won Southern Miss vs. Troy?

The Troy won 55–34 on Tuesday, Oct 6, 2026.

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