UAB vs. MemphisFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalSimmons Bank Liberty Stadium

UAB3–2

13–38Final

Memphis4–1

Score by period
Team	1	2	3	4	T
UAB	7	6	0	0	13
MEM	7	3	14	14	38

Top model pick, graded

Won

Memphis Tigers to win −650

Why Brewing CFB Moneylines likes it: Recent 10-game EPA supports Memphis: +0.2056 offense and +0.089 defense allowed versus UAB’s +0.001 and +0.1314.

Brewing CFB MoneylinesUp 5% return this season · 40 picks

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How the picks did

Models went 16-9 on this game · +22% return

Memphis Tigers to winFavorite2 models agreeHigh conviction
+15%Won
Taken at −650 on BetMGM
2 modelsBrewing CFB Moneylines, D1 Winner
Why 2 models like it
Brewing CFB Moneylines
- Recent 10-game EPA supports Memphis: +0.2056 offense and +0.089 defense allowed versus UAB’s +0.001 and +0.1314.
- Official weekly depth charts project Marcus Stokes and Ryder Burton; neither quarterback has a listed injury.
- The historical pattern is generic home-favorite pricing rather than a Memphis-specific sample; nine losses remain in 105 games.
D1 Winner
- Memphis averaged +0.363 offensive EPA/play and 51.8% success over five games versus UAB's +0.011 and 47.8%.
- Memphis explosive-play rate is 18.2% versus UAB's 9.0%; Memphis has outscored opponents 193-112 this season.
- The 90.5% estimate is sensitive to a five-game sample and opponent-adjusted EPA noise.
Memphis Tigers spread −14.52 models agree
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on Kalshi
2 modelsSaturday Board, ProphetX CFB Lines
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board
- Most likely loss: Memphis wins by 14 or fewer, or UAB wins outright, so the -14.5 rung fails.
ProphetX CFB Lines
- Load-bearing efficiency gap favors Memphis: current matchup blend is about +0.160 EPA/play, with Memphis at 3.55 points per drive versus UAB at 2.31; both average about 70 plays.
- Most likely loss: Memphis fails to convert its efficiency edge into a 15-point margin and UAB stays within two scores.
UAB Blazers +14.52 models agree
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Polymarket US
2 modelsHeater Two-Hour, Picks With Pink Grading System
Why 2 models like it
Heater Two-Hour
- HomeRunHazard and Mooseborzoii oppose on the same Memphis -14.5 market.
Picks With Pink Grading System
- PWP grade 72/100: qualifying B profile with medium conviction.
- UAB covers a fixed +14.5 benchmark in 6 of its last 10 games and 4 of 5 this season.
- Memphis owns a major recent efficiency edge: +0.2056 offensive EPA/play versus UAB's -0.0037.
Memphis Tigers spread −152 models agree
+92%Won
Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsSaturday Board Pairs, ProphetX Pairs
Why 2 models like it
Saturday Board Pairs
- Matchup EPA gap favors Memphis: its offense is +0.3559 above UAB's defensive EPA allowed; UAB's offense is about 0.0517 below Memphis's defensive allowance.
- Memphis' PFF card leads UAB 87.9, 80.3 overall and 79.1, 71.2 offensively; the ESPN-style predictor projects Memphis by 20.434 points.
- Most likely loss: Memphis' defense allows enough UAB explosive or short-field scoring for a backdoor cover, despite the offensive mismatch.
ProphetX Pairs
- only 2026 sample: Memphis +0.347 EPA/play versus UAB -0.057, a +0.405 gap.
- Memphis leads FBS-only success rate .503 to .461 and explosive rate .185 to .093; scoring averages are 37.0 to 21.75.
- UAB's FBS defensive EPA allowed is .065 versus Memphis .037; that resistance can keep the margin below 15.
Game total under 542 models agree
+113%Won
Taken at 47¢ on ProphetX
2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
Why 2 models like it
ProphetX Pairs
- A season scoring/pace lens centers this matchup around 52, 53 points; no simulation was run.
- UAB averages 21.75 points across four FBS games, while Memphis has allowed 22.4 points per game overall.
- Memphis averages 38.6 points and its .182 average explosive-play rate can clear the number quickly.
Long Way Home
- Memphis averages 38.6 points across five games, but 59 and 45 came against Charlotte and UT Martin; the raw average is schedule-inflated.
- UAB held Navy and Louisiana Tech? to 20 and 21 points; its recent defensive profile supports a lower-possession, lower-scoring script.
- Most likely loss: Memphis creates short fields or repeats its explosive recent offense, pushing the game above 54.
UAB Blazers under 19.5 team pointsHigh conviction
+96%Won
Taken at −104 on FanDuel
Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Opponent-adjusted EPA delta -0.0425/play: UAB offense +0.0106 minus Memphis defensive allowance +0.0531 across five current-season games each.
- UAB success rate .4780 exceeds Memphis-opponent context .4497, a modest primary-lens contradiction.

Show all 20 picks

UAB Blazers spread +14.5
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX
DriftUp 11% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- UAB's current-season defensive EPA allowed is 0.006/play versus Memphis 0.053; the five-game power model prices the 14.5-point cushion above market.
- Personnel gate is resolved: current reports identify Ryder Burton as UAB's full-time starter and Marcus Stokes as Memphis's quarterback.
- Most likely loss: Memphis's 0.362 offensive EPA/play and 0.182 explosive rate generate an early multi-score margin.
Over 55 total
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Load-bearing possession factor: UAB and Memphis average 69.8 and 71.25 plays, projecting roughly 21.5 adjusted drives.
- Explosive-rate convergence favors the Over tail: Memphis is at 17.4% and UAB at 9.1%; confirmed starters are Ryder Burton and Marcus Stokes.
- Most likely loss: UAB stalls while Memphis controls a lead and reduces second-half pace, leaving the game at 55 or fewer.
Memphis Tigers spread −17.5
+127%Won
Taken at 44¢ on Novig
Rung ReaderUp 52% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Pinnacle main spread de-vigs Memphis -14.5 to 51.7%.
- Moving to -17.5 crosses the 17 key; subtracting the 2.5% key mass gives 49.2% fair.
- Ryder Burton and Marcus Stokes are listed as the UAB and Memphis starters.
- The 2.5% key-number adjustment is structural, not a game-specific margin model.
Memphis Tigers 1st-half winnerFavorite
−100%Lost
Taken at 77¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Last five: Memphis averaged 3.55 points per drive, 0.518 success rate, and 0.363 offensive EPA/play.
- Last five: UAB averaged 2.31 points per drive, 0.478 success rate, and -0.005 offensive EPA/play.
- Memphis averaged 70 plays at 25.5 seconds/play; its aggressive early-script profile is materially stronger than UAB's.
- The Kalshi substitute reference already prices Memphis at 76.7%; the model edge is only about 3.3 probability points.
1st-half total over 27.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Memphis averaged 4.00 points per drive over its last three; UAB averaged 1.92.
- Memphis posted +0.355 offensive EPA/play over five games; UAB's five-game offense averaged +0.017.
- Both current quarterbacks are resolved: Marcus Stokes and Ryder Burton are the active starters.
- First-half scoring has only roughly 5-6 drives per team; one turnover or missed field goal can decide the ticket.
Memphis Tigers −15.5
+96%Won
Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi
CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Memphis is 4-1 with a +16.2 recent scoring margin; UAB is 3-2 at +0.6.
- Memphis leads current EPA/play 0.362 to UAB's -0.005, with an 87.9 vs 80.3 PFF overall-grade edge.
- A projected mean margin is not a complete spread distribution; a 20.4-point mean can still produce a one-score Memphis win.
Game total under 55.5
+89%Won
Taken at 53¢ on ProphetX
House RulesDown 7% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- under 55.5 has no push; exactly 55 points is a full win.
- Exact 55 occurred 156 of 4,419 CFB games from 2022, 2026: 14.525% empirical push mass on adjacent under 55.
- ProphetX under 55.5 is -115 versus its under 55 whole-number rung at -105: only a 10-American-cent price gap for converting that 55 mass from push to win.
- The 14.525% exact-55 rate is broad CFB history, not a matchup-specific projection; the true UAB, Memphis mass may differ.
Memphis Tigers spread −16
+100%Won
Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- That ladder gap makes -16 the relatively underpriced Memphis rung, while the same-board Memphis moneyline is -590 / 85.51¢ and directionally agrees.
- Projection supports the favorite: Memphis averages +0.3626 offensive EPA/play versus UAB -0.0053, with PFF team grades 87.9 to 80.3.
- Most likely loss: Memphis wins by 15 or fewer; exactly 16 is a push rather than a win.
Memphis Tigers first-half spread NO 6.5
+150%Won
Taken at 40¢ on Kalshi
Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 2,505 regular-season games (2024, 26) give full-game margin SD 15.80; sqrt-half scaling gives 11.17, not 7.90.
- Pinnacle full-game Memphis -14.5; half baseline 7.25, with current efficiency adjustment producing projected first-half mean ≈7.5.
- 6.5 sits just below college margin mass at 7 (183 occurrences); no NFL key-number assumption imported.
- NO loses if Memphis reaches a 7+ first-half margin; the model still gives the YES outcome 53.6%.
Memphis Tigers spread −15.5
+93%Won
Taken at −108 on DraftKings
RnjDown 65% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 1.0-point spread variance: DraftKings -15.5 versus the -14.5 consensus cluster.
- L4 matchup EPA differential is +0.640: Memphis +0.5359 offense-versus-defense edge, UAB -0.1042.
- Memphis owns a +16.2 recent scoring-margin form edge over UAB's +0.6.
- Standard-down and passing-down success splits are not served; overall success rate is only a proxy.
Game first-half total over 27.5 points
−100%Lost
Taken at 49¢ on Kalshi
Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- 10.3 blended first-half drives: pace ledger gives 9.9 after a 5% stoppage haircut; five-game history gives 10.8.
- Conservative PPD blend lands near 30, 32 points, above the 27.5 rung; this is not a flat 50% split.
- Derived same-rung reference, not an independent first-half sharp quote; the call is capped at LEAN.
Memphis −12
+64%Won
Taken at 61¢ on ProphetX
Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
Game total over 55
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- Memphis posts +0.362 EPA/play, 0.182 explosive rate and 3.549 points per drive; UAB allows +0.006 EPA/play defensively.
- UAB plays quickly at 22.77 seconds per play, while Memphis has scored 193 points in five games and owns a 4-1 record.
- QB gate: latest passing boxes lead with Ryder Burton for UAB and Marcus Stokes for Memphis; current official UAB and Memphis game-week pages were checked with no open battle or QB-out report surfaced.
- Most likely loss: UAB stalls against Memphis and the game finishes at 54 or fewer points.
Total Points over 55
−100%Lost
Taken at 48¢ on ProphetX
Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
Why it likes it
- UAB averages 24.0 points; Memphis’s positive defensive EPA allowed gives the Blazers a scoring path, while UAB’s defense is near-neutral at +0.006 EPA/play allowed.
- QB gate cleared live: Ryder Burton is UAB’s full-time starter and Marcus Stokes is Memphis’s primary QB; each led his latest passing row.
- UAB’s five-game 22.77-second pace average is distorted by a 1.77-second row, making possession estimates unreliable.

Questions

Who won UAB vs. Memphis?

The Memphis won 38–13 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.