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Indiana vs. NebraskaFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalMemorial Stadium (Lincoln
Indiana5–0
20–17Final
Nebraska5–0
Score by period
Team1234T
IU3031420
NEB1000717

Top model pick, graded

Won

Nebraska Cornhuskers spread +9 51¢

Why ProphetX CFB Lines likes it: Load-bearing efficiency gap favors Indiana but not by nine: IU averages .4415 offensive EPA/play and 4.109 points/drive versus Nebraska's .2934 and 3.715; +9 sits beyond key 7 and supplies cushion after garbage-time discounting.

ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% this season · 286 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 9-14 on this game · −25% return

  1. Nebraska Cornhuskers to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +270 on DraftKings

    2 modelsCFB Moonshot Singles, Picks With Pink Grading System
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Moonshot Singles
      • Indiana has superior offensive EPA.
      Picks With Pink Grading System
      • Nebraska is 5-0 this season and 5-0 in the current five-game form window.
      • Fresh 5:00am board: BetMGM offers +275, best major-US price found.
      • Indiana is ranked No. 7 AP and No. 5 Coaches, also 5-0, with a 96.6 team grade versus Nebraska's 91.8.
    • Over 47.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket

      CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Both teams are 5-0; their last-five games produced 439 combined points, with strong recent offensive EPA.
      • A 54c entry leaves only a modest momentum edge; one low-scoring game erases it.
    • Nebraska Cornhuskers spread +9
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Load-bearing efficiency gap favors Indiana but not by nine: IU averages .4415 offensive EPA/play and 4.109 points/drive versus Nebraska's .2934 and 3.715; +9 sits beyond key 7 and supplies cushion after garbage-time discounting.
      • Most likely loss: Indiana's superior offense converts enough explosive plays to win by 10 or more in Lincoln.
    • Over 48.5 total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX CFB LinesDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Load-bearing possession factor: 136.4 combined current plays projects about 20.5 adjusted drives and a 50.4-point mean; 18.1% and 15.2% explosive rates support the Over tail.
      • Same-day previews name Josh Hoover and Anthony Colandrea, and latest passing rows cross-check both as their teams' clear leaders.
      • Most likely loss: one offense stalls against the opponent-adjusted defense, and the projected 20.5 combined drives do not materialize.
    • Game total over 47.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 54¢ on Polymarket US

      Heater Two-HourUp 17% last 7 days
    • Indiana Hoosiers −7.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −120 on FanDuel

      RnjDown 65% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Matchup EPA differential is +0.162 per play for Indiana over Nebraska, last four games.
      • Indiana's success-rate margin is +4.2 percentage points (.567 vs .525), clearing the brief's +4.0% weigh threshold.
      • Spread variance is 1.0 point: DraftKings shows Nebraska +8.5 while FanDuel/Pinnacle are at Nebraska +7.5.
      • The success-rate edge barely clears the +4.0-point threshold, so this is not a high-conviction spot.
    Show all 22 picks
    1. Indiana Hoosiers to winFavorite
      +30%Won

      Taken at −330 on FanDuel

      D1 WinnerUp 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Indiana averages 0.4415 offensive EPA/play versus Nebraska's 0.2934 through five games.
      • Indiana leads success rate .5643-.5198 and explosive-play rate .1813-.1522.
      • Josh Hoover: 76-of-107, 1,101 yards, 15 TD, 0 INT; Anthony Colandrea: 94-of-143, 13 TD, 2 INT.
      • Nebraska's defense has the better five-game EPA allowed mark, -.093 versus Indiana's -.0588.
    2. Nebraska Cornhuskers spread +8
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Saturday Board PairsDown 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • cfb_predictor makes Indiana a 7.196-point favorite; +8 adds margin protection.
      • Indiana’s defense allows -0.0589 EPA/play versus Nebraska’s -0.0930, a modest defensive edge for the visitor.
    3. Indiana Hoosiers 1st-half winnerFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 65¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Five-game average: Indiana posts +0.441 offensive EPA/play and 56.4% success, versus Nebraska's +0.293 and 52.2%.
      • Josh Hoover is listed in Indiana's current pregame notes; a Friday game-day report identifies Anthony Colandrea as Nebraska's starter.
      • The five-game sample is thin; Nebraska's pace average includes one anomalous 4.98-second row, weakening tempo confidence.
    4. 1Q total over 7.5 points
      +79%Won

      Taken at 56¢ on Kalshi

      Kickoff ScriptUp 2% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Five-game Indiana averages: 4.11 points per drive, .564 success rate, and .435 offensive EPA/play.
      • Five-game Nebraska averages: 3.71 points per drive, .522 success rate, and .293 offensive EPA/play.
      • Opening-script projection is approximately 10.5, 11 points, above the 7.5 threshold.
      • A first quarter has only a handful of possessions; one turnover, explosive play, or missed field goal can decide it.
    5. Game total over 48
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      Resting MoneyDown 24% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Book levels are tied 3, 3, so two of three measures agree: over is thin at quote and deeper overall.
      • Venue self-reference is the only reference; no independent sharp confirmation at the exact 48 line.
    6. Indiana Hoosiers over 27.5 team points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

      CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Indiana averages 44.2 points across five 2026 games and scored at least 29 in every one.
      • Indiana's recent offense posts 0.4347 EPA/play and a 56.4% success rate.
      • Nebraska's 2026 team defensive grade is 81.5, while five Nebraska defenders are listed out.
      • Indiana WR LeBron Bond remains questionable; three other Hoosiers are ruled out.
    7. Indiana Hoosiers spread −6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 60¢ on ProphetX

      Key Number CFBUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle's captured main spread is approximately Indiana -7.5; the market and model both make Indiana the clear favorite.
      • Indiana leads recent 10-game EPA/play 0.3724 to Nebraska 0.1774; PFF overall grades favor Indiana 96.6 to 91.8.
      • QB gate passed: Josh Hoover led Indiana's latest pass-attempt row (27) and was identified as the starter in the Oct. 9 preview; Nebraska's official page says Anthony Colandrea started every 2026 game.
      • Most likely loss: Nebraska wins outright or Indiana wins by six points or fewer.
    8. Total Points over 47
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 57¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • ProphetX anchors over 31.5 Indiana ($826 at -115) and over 21.5 Nebraska ($785 at -121) sum to 53.
      • Most likely loss: both strong defenses suppress red-zone conversion and hold the game below 47.
    9. Total Points over 48.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Tempo BoardDown 18% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Five-game 2026 scoring averages are Indiana 44.2 and Nebraska 43.6, a combined 87.8 before matchup adjustment.
      • Indiana posts 0.435 EPA/play, 56.4% success, 18.1% explosive rate; Nebraska posts 0.293, 52.2%, 15.2%.
      • Most likely loss: both strong defenses suppress scoring; defensive EPA allowed is -0.063 Indiana and -0.093 Nebraska.
    10. Nebraska Cornhuskers spread +7.5
      +104%Won

      Taken at 49¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • the current CFB predictor makes Indiana's margin 7.196 points, just below the 7.5-point cushion.
      • only 2026 averages favor Indiana's offense, but Nebraska's defense allowed -0.077 EPA/play versus Indiana's -0.027.
      • Current game reporting identifies Josh Hoover and Anthony Colandrea as the starting quarterbacks; the personnel gate is met.
      • Indiana's FBS-only offense leads by 0.116 EPA/play (.416 versus .300), creating a clear blowout route.
    11. Indiana Hoosiers first-half spread NO 5.5
      +96%Won

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 2,479 completed 2024, 26 FBS regular-season games give SD_full 15.84; square-root half scaling gives SD_1H 11.20.
      • season-to-date EPA, explosive rate, pace and points-per-drive inputs blended with the scaled Pinnacle full-game Indiana -9 reference produce a first-half mean near Indiana +4.1.
      • at the exact 5.5 rung, P(Indiana first-half margin ≤5.5) is about 55.0% versus the 51¢ NO price.
      • First-half margins are not directly backtested; the normal mean-plus-SD distribution omits discrete scoring, correlated possessions and halftime strategy.
    12. Indiana Hoosiers first-half spread NO 4.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle’s current full-game Indiana -7.5 implies a naive first-half mean of +3.75, consistent with the +3.6 projection.
      • Season-to-date profiles support a modest Indiana edge, not a runaway: Indiana +0.435 EPA/play versus Nebraska +0.293, with explosive rates .181 versus .152.
      • Only the full-game margin distribution is directly observed; first-half tails are modeled, not backtested.
    13. Anthony Colandrea over 0.5 passing touchdownsFavorite
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −230 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Colandrea cleared 0.5 passing touchdowns in all 5 current-season games (3, 2, 1, 4, 3).
      • Model probability 80% versus 69.7% implied by FanDuel -230: +10.3 points.
      • Nebraska has scored 218 points in five games, a 43.6-point average supporting sustained offensive opportunity.
      • Five-game current-season sample is thin; the perfect hit rate is vulnerable to regression.
    14. Josh Hoover over 1.5 passing touchdowns
      +94%Won

      Taken at −106 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 4 of 5 2026 games cleared 1.5 passing touchdowns (4, 1, 2, 4, 4).
      • Model probability 70% versus 51.5% implied by FanDuel -106: +18.5 points.
      • Indiana averages 3.679 points per drive over the recent 10-game window.
      • Only five current-season games; the sample is thin and may overstate his touchdown rate.
    15. Game over 23.5 first-half total
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 55¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Starting-QB gate passed: official/live checks identify Josh Hoover and Anthony Colandrea without reported uncertainty.
      • Model projects only 0.9 points above 23.5; one empty red-zone trip loses.
    16. Nebraska Cornhuskers spread +7
      +127%Won

      Taken at 44¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • A simple offense-defense scoring blend projects Indiana 29, Nebraska 27; that makes the seven-point cushion materially valuable.
      • Nebraska's defense has the better 2026 EPA profile: -0.093 allowed per play versus Indiana's -0.063.
      • Both teams are 5-0, with recent average margins of +29.4 for Nebraska and +33.4 for Indiana; the matchup is not priced like a mismatch at the main spread.
      • Most likely loss: Indiana's .435 offensive EPA per play overwhelms Nebraska's .293 mark and produces an 8-plus-point win.

    Questions

    Who won Indiana vs. Nebraska?

    The Indiana won 20–17 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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