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Ole Miss vs. VanderbiltFinal score and model picks, graded

FinalFirstBank Stadium
Ole Miss3–1
52–17Final
Vanderbilt3–2
Score by period
Team1234T
MISS142801052
VAN307717

Top model pick, graded

Won

Ole Miss Rebels over 32.5 team points −118

Why Saturday Scoring Environment likes it: +0.106 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: Ole Miss offense .2424 minus Vanderbilt defensive allowance .1365 across four and five current-season FBS games.

Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 21% this season · 79 picks
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How the picks did

Models went 6-9 on this game · −22% return

  1. Vanderbilt Commodores to winLong shot2 models agree
    −100%Lost

    Taken at +280 on DraftKings

    2 modelsCFB Moonshot Singles, Resting Money
    Why 2 models like it
    CFB Moonshot Singles
      • Ole Miss success rate and offense are stronger.
      Resting Money
      • Reference label: VENUE SELF-REFERENCE, ProphetX moneyline only, not an independent confirmation.
      • Directional coherence check: backing Vanderbilt, which is the side read as thin-at-quote/deep-behind-it, leg matches.
      • The book-level measure is tied 3-3, so this is not three-measure confirmation.
    • Vanderbilt Commodores +9.52 models agree
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −107 on williamhill_us

      2 modelsPicks With Pink Grading System, D1 Winner
      Why 2 models like it
      Picks With Pink Grading System
      • PWP Composite Grade 73/100 (B): clears the 70+ fire bar with a qualifying edge.
      • Vanderbilt covered 8 of its last 10 DK closing spreads; current-season record is 4-1.
      • The 1.73-point model cushion is modest; ordinary one-score variance can erase it.
      D1 Winner
      • Vanderbilt's 2026 defensive EPA allowed is +0.1365 versus Ole Miss at +0.1593; lower is better.
      • FanDuel moved Vanderbilt from +10.5 to +9.5, a one-point market move toward the home underdog.
      • Ole Miss leads current-season offense at +0.2566 EPA/play and 55.9% success rate versus Vanderbilt's +0.0572 and 47.8%.
    • Game total over 54.52 models agree
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      2 modelsProphetX Pairs, Long Way Home
      Why 2 models like it
      ProphetX Pairs
      • Current-season scoring averages total 60.9 points: Ole Miss 35.5 PPG and Vanderbilt 25.4 PPG, 6.4 above the rung.
      • Likeliest loss path: Vanderbilt’s slow 28.89-second pace and Ole Miss’ positive defensive EPA suppress possessions and leave the game below 55.
      Long Way Home
      • Ole Miss averages 35.5 points and Vanderbilt allows 25.0 through the current-season warehouse sample.
      • Ole Miss posts +0.243 offensive EPA/play and 54.8% success; Vanderbilt's defense allows +0.137 EPA/play.
      • Most likely loss: Vanderbilt's defense controls the pace and Ole Miss fails to turn its offensive efficiency into touchdowns.
    • Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt under 55.5 total points
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 53¢ on Polymarket

      CFB HeaterUp 16% last 7 days
    • Ole Miss Rebels first-half spread NO 6.5
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 51¢ on Kalshi

      Early CoverUp 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Pinnacle’s current full-game Ole Miss −9.5 implies a first-half mean near +4.75.
      • Ole Miss averages 0.243 EPA/play and 3.151 points/drive versus Vanderbilt’s 0.057 and 1.996; blended first-half mean is about +4.9.
      • 2,571 completed 2024, 26 regular/postseason CFB finals give SD_full 15.72; sqrt-half scaling gives SD_1H 11.11, not 7.86.
      • First-half margins are unobserved; normal additive-variance scaling is structural and not directly backtested.
    • Ole Miss Rebels over 32.5 team points
      +85%Won

      Taken at −118 on FanDuel

      Saturday Scoring EnvironmentDown 77% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • +0.106 opponent-adjusted EPA/play: Ole Miss offense .2424 minus Vanderbilt defensive allowance .1365 across four and five current-season FBS games.
      • Confirmers agree: Ole Miss success rate .559 versus Vanderbilt opponents .457, and explosive rate .125 versus .118 allowed.
      • Vanderbilt's defensive red-zone allowed rate is .571, not an over trigger; Ole Miss must sustain its own .875 finishing rate.
    Show all 12 picks
    1. Vanderbilt Commodores spread +9.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on Polymarket US

      CFB HunterV2Up 0% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 49.5¢ NO price implies 49.5%; model makes Vanderbilt +9.5 a 55.0% outcome.
      • Ole Miss leads current-season scoring margin only 4.4 points per game over Vanderbilt (4.8 vs 0.4).
      • Ole Miss has allowed 30.8 points per game and +0.156 defensive EPA/play across four current-season games.
      • Ole Miss offense averages +0.243 EPA/play and 3.15 points per drive, creating real blowout upside.
    2. Ole Miss Rebels spread −7.5
      +92%Won

      Taken at 52¢ on ProphetX

      ProphetX PairsDown 9% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • across three 2026 FBS games, Ole Miss has +0.206 offensive EPA/play versus Vanderbilt's +0.026, and a 54.6% versus 44.4% success rate.
      • Vanderbilt's FBS defensive EPA allowed is better: +0.217 versus Ole Miss at +0.251, creating a credible resistance path.
    3. Deuce Alexander over 75.5 receiving yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −114 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 3 of 4 2026 games cleared 75.5 receiving yards: 134, 60, 76, and 159.
      • Ole Miss’s official preview calls Alexander Chambliss’s primary target and confirms his active role.
      • The preview reports 15.9 yards per reception, supporting an explosive-yardage path.
      • Vanderbilt’s 212.6 opponent passing-yards average is not a top-35 favorable matchup tier.
    4. Trinidad Chambliss over 279.5 passing yards
      −100%Lost

      Taken at −114 on FanDuel

      Picks with pink pro readerUp 13% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 3 of 4 2026 games cleared 279.5 yards: 298, 363, 225, and 336.
      • Ole Miss’s official preview identifies Chambliss as the expected passer against Vanderbilt.
      • Ole Miss passed on 56.9% of plays in its latest game and 69.9% the game before.
      • Only four 2026 appearances; the 225-yard miss demonstrates substantial sample variance.
    5. Game 1st-half total under 30.5Long shot
      −100%Lost

      Taken at 34¢ on Kalshi

      Two QuartersDown 1% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • 5 drives produced 17 points by 3:51 Q1; the 1H drive model yields about 10 total drives, not a runaway possession count.
      • PROE/explosive uplift is real but specific: current combined PROE .2557 vs .1577 historical and explosive rate .2361 vs .1216; it supports the 3.06 first-half rate rather than a flat 50% split.
      • 17 points already scored on only five drives; one more short-field touchdown makes the under fragile.
    6. Ole Miss Rebels spread −9.5
      +100%Won

      Taken at 50¢ on ProphetX

      Long Way HomeDown 5% last 7 days
      Why it likes it
      • Ole Miss averages +0.256 offensive EPA/play across four 2026 rows; Vanderbilt averages +0.039 across five.
      • Ole Miss averages a 55.2% offensive success rate versus Vanderbilt's 47.8%, a substantial efficiency gap.
      • My rough matchup projection is Ole Miss by 11, 12 points; the market's main number is only -9.5.
      • Most likely loss: Vanderbilt's home field and Ole Miss's defensive volatility keep the margin at nine or fewer.

    Questions

    Who won Ole Miss vs. Vanderbilt?

    The Ole Miss won 52–17 on Saturday, Oct 10, 2026.

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